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Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential


Typhoon Tip
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1 minute ago, Spanks45 said:

GEFS have never really been enthused with this one, OP seemed to be the juiced one. Maybe that was a redflag?

it was to me, ive seen it the whole time...very odd. I think conservative is the way to go with this one, frankly 1-3 might be too high. We'll see how tomorrows runs shake out.

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20 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Here are BOX's awe-inspiring floor and ceiling probability maps.

mapgen.php?office=BOX&ptype=prob_sn&summary=true&state=MA&pointpreferences=MA&product=low_end&2025020510

 

mapgen.php?office=BOX&ptype=prob_sn&summary=true&state=MA&pointpreferences=MA&product=high_end&2025020510

The couple of spots of not even a trace are cute.

Anyway…globals/rgem are pretty much 0.30-0.40 ish up here…nam and hrrr are meh. 3-4” looks good with a little ZL on top.

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Just now, dendrite said:

The couple of spots of not even a trace are cute.

Anyway…globals/rgem are pretty much 0.30-0.40 ish up here…nam and hrrr are meh. 3-4” looks good with a little ZL on top.

Well but maybe ratios are better for the 1st couple hours?  Super cold at the start although I know ratios aren’t necessarily about the air temperature.

but 3” is a win

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4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Well but maybe ratios are better for the 1st couple hours?  Super cold at the start although I know ratios aren’t necessarily about the air temperature.

but 3” is a win

SWFE so the DGZ is way up there. Most of the lift is below it.

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1 hour ago, moneypitmike said:

Here are BOX's awe-inspiring floor and ceiling probability maps.

mapgen.php?office=BOX&ptype=prob_sn&summary=true&state=MA&pointpreferences=MA&product=low_end&2025020510

 

mapgen.php?office=BOX&ptype=prob_sn&summary=true&state=MA&pointpreferences=MA&product=high_end&2025020510

Looking at data this morning, I think that's fair, although I think slightly underdone just west of CT and Berkshires. This is moving so quickly, any accumulating snow at decent rates only lasts a few hours

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11 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Based on overnight runs and trends.. Hammer’s 2-4” map for CT looks spot on. Probably a lot of 3-3.5” amounts . Then freezing drizzle into the night before an end as very light snow / snow grains 

Will be a little FZDZ then shuts off. Temps warm up perhaps into Friday morning.

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