TheMainer Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe we can go .35 with this one, and then go .50+ for the weekend with little melting and bring down the grid slowly, but surely Expand 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 18z Mammy came in snowy and much colder compared to 12z 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tamarack Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:56 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Ha... that's an interesting thought. I was haven't considered them in aggregate. I've see that only once around here, though ...way back in the late 1980s. There was a nondescript icing event and then it got cold. I remember still hearing that crinkling sound when the wind would blow through the trees like 4 days later. Then, there was a nor'easter brewing and there was concern for wind and snow loading on the ice but it didn't actually become an issue. Expand Saw it once, way back when I was in HS. January 15, 1961 was a Sunday and my dad and I went ice fishing that afternoon. Caught almost nothing, in part because steady ZR froze on the traps, making them non-functional. About 1/4" accretion when it changed to SN in the evening, with 6" new at sunrise. 95% of the time, an event like that would close the schools, but they had lost 2.5 days in December and a bigger storm was on the horizon, so off we went - no accidents AFAIK. Thurs-Fri brought a 20" blizzard (Fri was JFK inauguration day in snowy DC) costing another school day and winter's biggest on Feb 3-4 yet another. Fortunately for schools, that was a Fri-Sat event with Monday off because plows had no place to push the stuff; NJ had depths 30-50" after that one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 9:23 PM, Damage In Tolland said: 18z Mammy came in snowy and much colder compared to 12z Expand Useless at this range though. I guess I’ll take it trending colder rather than the other way around but at the 66-72 hour range I’m still mostly just looking at the big boy models. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 9:37 PM, ORH_wxman said: Useless at this range though. I guess I’ll take it trending colder rather than the other way around but at the 66-72 hour range I’m still mostly just looking at the big boy models. Expand Yeah but it had almost no snow at 12z. Just noting . Better than it showing the warm tongue up the rear this far out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 9:37 PM, ORH_wxman said: Useless at this range though. I guess I’ll take it trending colder rather than the other way around but at the 66-72 hour range I’m still mostly just looking at the big boy models. Expand GFS also looks good 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 I’ll definitely take what the GFS is offering 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 10:11 PM, Kitz Craver said: I’ll definitely take what the GFS is offering Expand Pretty solid advisory snows on the front end all the way into SW CT. Then a period of IP/ZR before dryslotting. Decent little event if it can break that way. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Nam/ GFS/ GGEM/ Reggie / Ukie vs Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DJln491 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Would take the gfs right now. Few inches followed by brief period of rain/mix. Probably as good as it gets for us in CT Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 11:24 PM, DJln491 said: Would take the gfs right now. Few inches followed by brief period of rain/mix. Probably as good as it gets for us in CT Expand Coastal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Euro tickled colder again. 3-5” on front end for just about all of SNE save for far SE coastal zones where it’s closer to 2”. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 11:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro tickled colder again. 3-5” on front end for just about all of SNE save for far SE coastal zones where it’s closer to 2”. Expand Is this potential for Wednesday night into Thursday? Or more daytime Thursday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 11:44 PM, WinterWolf said: Is this potential for Wednesday night into Thursday? Or more daytime Thursday? Expand More daytime Thursday. First flakes might be just before sunrise down that way but most of it falls during morning/midday hours from southwest to northeast. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 11:46 PM, ORH_wxman said: More daytime Thursday. First flakes might be just before sunrise down that way but most of it falls during morning/midday hours from southwest to northeast. Expand Ok…that would be real nice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 And the Euro folds again 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 11:42 PM, ORH_wxman said: Euro tickled colder again. 3-5” on front end for just about all of SNE save for far SE coastal zones where it’s closer to 2”. Expand I know it doesn't mean anything for the weekend storm, but maybe the models are going downplay the cold push in this 'new' pattern. Seems like last night was colder and further south than it looked a few days prior...maybe just weenie thought? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 11:54 PM, Spanks45 said: I know it doesn't mean anything for the weekend storm, but maybe the models are going downplay the cold push in this 'new' pattern. Seems like last night was colder and further south than it looked a few days prior...maybe just weenie thought? Expand Modeling starting to pick up on The blocking perhaps, starting to pick up on the press as we close in on these events…? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/3/2025 at 11:47 PM, WinterWolf said: Ok…that would be real nice. Expand Would suck for me... I have to drive to Norwood for training all day and then home... blah. If it started earlier... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 12:01 AM, HoarfrostHubb said: Would suck for me... I have to drive to Norwood for training all day and then home... blah. If it started earlier... Expand What if they cancelled school…? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 12:11 AM, WinterWolf said: What if they cancelled school…? Expand That’s what I’m trying to find out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/3/2025 at 11:54 PM, Spanks45 said: I know it doesn't mean anything for the weekend storm, but maybe the models are going downplay the cold push in this 'new' pattern. Seems like last night was colder and further south than it looked a few days prior...maybe just weenie thought? Expand Will mentioned it a couple days ago I believe. These aren’t shallow fake cold air masses that scour out on approach, these have more staying power and are more deeply entrenched 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 12:23 AM, Kitz Craver said: Will mentioned it a couple days ago I believe. These aren’t shallow fake cold air masses that scour out on approach, these have more staying power and are more deeply entrenched Expand Sludgy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/3/2025 at 11:54 PM, Spanks45 said: I know it doesn't mean anything for the weekend storm, but maybe the models are going downplay the cold push in this 'new' pattern. Seems like last night was colder and further south than it looked a few days prior...maybe just weenie thought? Expand I’m not sure if it’s going to be a consistent bias in modeling, but when you have very dense arctic low level airmasses in place, it’s a decent recipe for colder corrections on model guidance. Especially if you have some semblance of high resistance to the north or northeast. If you don’t, then that midlevel warm punch can scream in quickly. (Sometimes it does anyway) But it’s been a few winters since we had a lot of consistent arctic cold anchored over our region prior to storms coming out of the OH valley. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/3/2025 at 11:58 PM, WinterWolf said: Modeling starting to pick up on The blocking perhaps, starting to pick up on the press as we close in on these events…? Expand Sure hope so, might be time to finally get something work in our favor...feels like years since we had some luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Nam pretty far south. A bit tame with the dynamics too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 2:36 AM, CoastalWx said: Nam pretty far south. A bit tame with the dynamics too. Expand ya looks meh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 2:37 AM, ineedsnow said: ya looks meh Expand Couldn't/shouldn't care less about the NAM at this range! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/4/2025 at 2:36 AM, CoastalWx said: Nam pretty far south. A bit tame with the dynamics too. Expand On 2/4/2025 at 2:37 AM, ineedsnow said: ya looks meh Expand Yeah but the trend is good, itll figure it out. That model is like if the clown range had a clown range. But its good to see it go in that direction rather than opposite anyway.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FXWX Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/3/2025 at 11:44 PM, WinterWolf said: Is this potential for Wednesday night into Thursday? Or more daytime Thursday? Expand For our area (CT), the timing I'm going with is ideal for widespread school cancellations! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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