SouthCoastMA Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 RGEM a bit colder, but clown range. Maybe 1-2" before flip for se mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 3:11 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Yeah, the solution didn't really evolve S .. but either way, it's not been the snowier of guidance. no worries for snow mongering, considering the product and range - Expand Given the set up, though, I don’t expect much more than one to three at best south of the pike I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 The 12K NAM out at 84 has a decent slug of precip... but a lot is sleet/freezing rain up here 3-6" total frozen seems possible on that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 3:20 PM, CoastalWx said: Given the set up, though, I don’t expect much more than one to three at best south of the pike I think. Expand I’ll be happy if I grab 2” and then some sleet/ice before the dryslot. Most guidance does seem to triple point this over the cape/SE MA or thereabouts which would keep interior cold at the sfc. But this doesn’t look like a big snow producer really anywhere. Even up north it’s prob mostly advisory to perhaps some low end warning in a few spots. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 3:26 PM, ORH_wxman said: I’ll be happy if I grab 2” and then some sleet/ice before the dryslot. Most guidance does seem to triple point this over the cape/SE MA or thereabouts which would keep interior cold. But this doesn’t look like a big snow producer really anywhere. Even up north it’s prob mostly advisory to perhaps some low end warning in a few spots. Expand That was all it was supposed to be I think. Somewhere around .5 qpf. But up here it is very good pack builder and thickener. the next one is the door opener for many. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Is this slated as a Thursday morning event? I'm heading down to the metropolis of Methuen mid-afternoon on Thursday and would prefer rain over ice/snow for the drive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 3:44 PM, Layman said: Is this slated as a Thursday morning event? I'm heading down to the metropolis of Methuen mid-afternoon on Thursday and would prefer rain over ice/snow for the drive. Expand Be prepared to not get what you want. sorry for the inconvenience 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 12z GFS is a nice thump followed by slot and freezing drizzle. Pretty cold overall for SNE 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Layman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 3:56 PM, mahk_webstah said: Be prepared to not get what you want. sorry for the inconvenience Expand Me: "Honey, not heading to Methuen this afternoon. Sword fighting practice is cancelled." Wife: 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chrisrotary12 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Will gladly take another 2-3" to replace what we melt today. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 EURO colder again.. 2-5” away from the south shore 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 5:39 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: EURO colder again.. 2-5” away from the south shore Expand Caving to the GFS? Or maybe our compromise, but in favor of the GFS? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 5:23 PM, Chrisrotary12 said: Will gladly take another 2-3" to replace what we melt today. Expand Pack ho 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 5:40 PM, mahk_webstah said: Caving to the GFS? Or maybe our compromise, but in favor of the GFS? Expand In favor of gfs ya Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Last few runs, GFS has ticked south as well as the Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 5:41 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said: In favor of gfs ya Expand Not quite as cold as the GFS but damn close ... Close enough that I suspect we could be coalescing a consensus. GFS has moved maybe 70 total miles in 3 days of guidance. The Euro's getting away with not moving as much as it's just cooling everything off - reluctantly getting to a similar result. The surface PP in the Euro solution looks more like it's bending around BL cold forcing than "admitting" the GFS is right about a low down there... haha sumpin' li' ghat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Curious what kind of rates CNE would be getting on that output.. 10:1 paste?Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kitz Craver Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 EURO ticking colder but still not quite like GFS, we don’t want a compromise SOP for snow. We want a full EURO cave towards the GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 5:52 PM, Prismshine Productions said: Curious what kind of rates CNE would be getting on that output.. 10:1 paste? Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Expand 10:1 paste? That’s not paste in my book, it’s pretty much standard fare. Paste starts a little lower, like 8:1 maybe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prismshine Productions Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:10 PM, mreaves said: 10:1 paste? That’s not paste in my book, it’s pretty much standard fare. Paste starts a little lower, like 8:1 maybe. Fair enough, thinking 7-10:1 region wide unless you up by Rt2Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx2fish Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 5:52 PM, Prismshine Productions said: Curious what kind of rates CNE would be getting on that output.. 10:1 paste? Sent from my SM-S156V using Tapatalk Expand Ratios will probably be mediocre due to the warming layer aloft, but I doubt there will be much paste in CNE. More than likely a flip to sleet before hitting 32F 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 This isn't wet snow. Lower ratios due to crappy snow flake structure, sleet etc. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cardinalland Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 i think the sleet/ZR risk is p significant for this one. particularly in the valleys and in the CNE region. that warm tongue is racing forward while there's not so much movement at the surface, and a small coastal low popping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:21 PM, cardinalland said: i think the sleet/ZR risk is p significant for this one. particularly in the valleys and in the CNE region. that warm tongue is racing forward while there's not so much movement at the surface, and a small coastal low popping. Expand Def a period of IP/ZR but QPF won’t be prolific in this system so we prob don’t need to be worried about power issues, etc. But it will make driving and walking terrible. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:18 PM, CoastalWx said: This isn't wet snow. Lower ratios due to crappy snow flake structure, sleet etc. Expand Classic SWFE baking powder ratios. At least lower levels are nice and cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:25 PM, ORH_wxman said: Classic SWFE baking powder ratios. At least lower levels are nice and cold. Expand That's a nice comparison to 1994 ... I think we must've talked about it before as memory serves, but one of those systems was an IP carpet bombing while heavy blowing and drifting OEs banding was pummeling underneath. Strange. It even came out as far as Acton where I was living then, and I remember at one point we had 1/4 mi vis from breezy 20:1 shattering snow, while the sound of hail on the car tops. I'd never seen that combination of ptypes and haven't really since. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:24 PM, ORH_wxman said: Def a period of IP/ZR but QPF won’t be prolific in this system so we prob don’t need to be worried about power issues, etc. But it will make driving and walking terrible. Expand I’d forego snow if it meant power issues with more ice 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:35 PM, Damage In Tolland said: I’d forego snow if it meant power issues with more ice Expand Unfortunately ..this event isn't likely to produce much of either. 5" of snow is likely tops. .35" glazing where/if all ice. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:50 PM, Typhoon Tip said: Unfortunately ..this event isn't likely to produce much of either. 5" of snow is likely tops. .35" glazing where/if all ice. Expand Maybe we can go .35 with this one, and then go .50+ for the weekend with little melting and bring down the grid slowly, but surely 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 On 2/3/2025 at 6:52 PM, Damage In Tolland said: Maybe we can go .35 with this one, and then go .50+ for the weekend with little melting and bring down the grid slowly, but surely Expand Ha... that's an interesting thought. I was haven't considered them in aggregate. I've see that only once around here, though ...way back in the late 1980s. There was a nondescript icing event and then it got cold. I remember still hearing that crinkling sound when the wind would blow through the trees like 4 days later. Then, there was a nor'easter brewing and there was concern for wind and snow loading on the ice but it didn't actually become an issue. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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