Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[SouthCoastMA]

RGEM a bit colder, but clown range. Maybe 1-2" before flip for se mass

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Yeah, the solution didn't really evolve S .. but either way, it's not been the snowier of guidance. 

no worries for snow mongering, considering the product and range -

Given the set up, though, I don’t expect much more than one to three at best south of the pike I think.

[HoarfrostHubb]

The 12K NAM out at 84 has a decent slug of precip... but a lot is sleet/freezing rain up here    3-6" total frozen seems possible on that

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Given the set up, though, I don’t expect much more than one to three at best south of the pike I think.

I’ll be happy if I grab 2” and then some sleet/ice before the dryslot. Most guidance does seem to triple point this over the cape/SE MA or thereabouts which would keep interior cold at the sfc. 
 

But this doesn’t look like a big snow producer really anywhere. Even up north it’s prob mostly advisory to perhaps some low end warning in a few spots. 

[mahk_webstah]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I’ll be happy if I grab 2” and then some sleet/ice before the dryslot. Most guidance does seem to triple point this over the cape/SE MA or thereabouts which would keep interior cold. 
 

But this doesn’t look like a big snow producer really anywhere. Even up north it’s prob mostly advisory to perhaps some low end warning in a few spots. 

That was all it was supposed to be I think.  Somewhere around .5 qpf.  But up here it is very good pack builder and thickener.

the next one is the door opener for many.

[Layman]

Is this slated as a Thursday morning event?  I'm heading down to the metropolis of Methuen mid-afternoon on Thursday and would prefer rain over ice/snow for the drive.  

[mahk_webstah]

12 minutes ago, Layman said:

Is this slated as a Thursday morning event?  I'm heading down to the metropolis of Methuen mid-afternoon on Thursday and would prefer rain over ice/snow for the drive.  

Be prepared to not get what you want.  
sorry for the inconvenience

[Kitz Craver]

12z GFS is a nice thump followed by slot and freezing drizzle. Pretty cold overall for SNE

[Layman]

24 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Be prepared to not get what you want.  
sorry for the inconvenience

Me:  "Honey, not heading to Methuen this afternoon.  Sword fighting practice is cancelled."

Wife:  

[Chrisrotary12]

Will gladly take another 2-3" to replace what we melt today.

[Sey-Mour Snow]

EURO colder again.. 2-5” away from the south shore 

[mahk_webstah]

Just now, Sey-Mour Snow said:

EURO colder again.. 2-5” away from the south shore 

Caving to the GFS? Or maybe our compromise, but in favor of the GFS?

[mahk_webstah]

17 minutes ago, Chrisrotary12 said:

Will gladly take another 2-3" to replace what we melt today.

Pack ho

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Just now, mahk_webstah said:

Caving to the GFS? Or maybe our compromise, but in favor of the GFS?

In favor of gfs ya 

[dryslot]

Last few runs, GFS has ticked south as well as the Euro.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

In favor of gfs ya 

Not quite as cold as the GFS but damn close ... Close enough that I suspect we could be coalescing a consensus.

GFS has moved maybe 70 total miles in 3 days of guidance.  The Euro's getting away with not moving as much as it's just cooling everything off - reluctantly getting to a similar result.  The surface PP in the Euro solution looks more like it's bending around BL cold forcing than "admitting" the GFS is right about a low down there... haha

sumpin' li' ghat

[Prismshine Productions]

Curious what kind of rates CNE would be getting on that output.. 10:1 paste?

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[Kitz Craver]

EURO ticking colder but still not quite like GFS, we don’t want a compromise SOP for snow. We want a full EURO cave towards the GFS

[mreaves]

16 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Curious what kind of rates CNE would be getting on that output.. 10:1 paste?

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10:1 paste?  That’s not paste in my book, it’s pretty much standard fare. Paste starts a little lower, like 8:1 maybe. 

[Prismshine Productions]

10:1 paste?  That’s not paste in my book, it’s pretty much standard fare. Paste starts a little lower, like 8:1 maybe. 

Fair enough, thinking 7-10:1 region wide unless you up by Rt2

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[wx2fish]

21 minutes ago, Prismshine Productions said:

Curious what kind of rates CNE would be getting on that output.. 10:1 paste?

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Ratios will probably be mediocre  due to the warming layer aloft, but I doubt there will be much paste in CNE. More than likely a flip to sleet before hitting 32F 

[CoastalWx]

This isn't wet snow. Lower ratios due to crappy snow flake structure, sleet etc. 

[cardinalland]

i think the sleet/ZR risk is p significant for this one. particularly in the valleys and in the CNE region. that warm tongue is racing forward while there's not so much movement at the surface, and a small coastal low popping.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, cardinalland said:

i think the sleet/ZR risk is p significant for this one. particularly in the valleys and in the CNE region. that warm tongue is racing forward while there's not so much movement at the surface, and a small coastal low popping.

Def a period of IP/ZR but QPF won’t be prolific in this system so we prob don’t need to be worried about power issues, etc. But it will make driving and walking terrible. 

[ORH_wxman]

6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This isn't wet snow. Lower ratios due to crappy snow flake structure, sleet etc. 

Classic SWFE baking powder ratios. At least lower levels are nice and cold. 

[Typhoon Tip]

9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Classic SWFE baking powder ratios. At least lower levels are nice and cold. 

That's a nice comparison to 1994 ... 

I think we must've talked about it before as memory serves, but one of those systems was an IP carpet bombing while heavy blowing and drifting OEs banding was pummeling underneath.  Strange. It even came out as far as Acton where I was living then, and I remember at one point we had 1/4 mi vis from breezy 20:1 shattering snow, while the sound of hail on the car tops.   I'd never seen that combination of ptypes and haven't really since.

[Damage In Tolland]

10 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Def a period of IP/ZR but QPF won’t be prolific in this system so we prob don’t need to be worried about power issues, etc. But it will make driving and walking terrible. 

I’d forego snow if it meant power issues with more ice 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I’d forego snow if it meant power issues with more ice 

Unfortunately ..this event isn't likely to produce much of either.  

5" of snow is likely tops.  .35" glazing where/if all ice.  

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Unfortunately ..this event isn't likely to produce much of either.  

5" of snow is likely tops.  .35" glazing where/if all ice.  

Maybe we can go .35 with this one, and then go .50+ for the weekend with little melting and bring down the grid slowly, but surely 

[Typhoon Tip]

Just now, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe we can go .35 with this one, and then go .50+ for the weekend with little melting and bring down the grid slowly, but surely 

Ha... that's an interesting thought.  I was haven't considered them in aggregate. 

I've see that only once around here, though ...way back in the late 1980s.  There was a nondescript icing event and then it got cold. I remember still hearing that crinkling sound when the wind would blow through the trees like 4 days later. Then, there was a nor'easter brewing and there was concern for wind and snow loading on the ice but it didn't actually become an issue.