Tracking February 6. Light to moderate event potential

[Typhoon Tip]

This is intended to begin specific coverage for a 2-4 or 3-5" type event on the 6th, intending to leave the larger, more interesting coverage for the 9th/10th to a later time. 

This is actually fairly straight forward scenario.   There's been remarkable stability in the recent GFS operational runs for active wave transport along the pattern-fixated polar boundary. Yes, that is likely to be a repeating theme for the next 10 days, but again ... not getting into those scenarios here.   

Short version:  the higher odds for this, what I suspect will cap at a lower moderate mix and/or event, will likely involve areas N of Kevin ... Pretty much Pike to about mid VT/NH and lower Maine.  I'm actually inclined, though reluctantly, to invite him to this party ... given to the arguments below. However, in deference to the N tracked models there's a compromise.

Longer version:  the GEFs mean is slowly inching toward the operational run, which is being pretty strictly guided for where it can move between the stolid S-SE ridge/compressed field, whilst the -EPO attribute/on-going cold loading is pinning the mean polar boundary just S of the N/stream jet into position roughly IND-PHL.  This "should" ( famous word usage ) limit the wiggle room to between LI and the Del Marva.

Below, we see the GEFs at 18z beginning to bite on this concept, with a clear indication for stressing the pressure field E along that path of evolving/lesser resistance.   This is also a bump S and also incrementally more coherent than the 12z ...which was more so than the 00z last night...etc.

 

 

I'm actually a bit more concerned in this general synopsis, for compression beginning to correct/ attenuate matters. There's that, and the fact that models tend erode 20 or so percent of amplitude off everything... However, in this case we are solidly < than 5 days. It's time for the model to put up or shut up.

The GGEM and Euro carry the 6th as well, though obviously those vary toward a more N track and bring more of a brief icing after perhaps a shot of snow.  Definitely within the possibility envelope.  However, in both the EPS and GEFs derivatives the NAO index ( where in the hell have you been all season! ) is dropping precipitously from +1 now to about -1 SD ... Now, it's possible that the physical manifestation of the block is situated less ideally N in the D. Straight, however... this is still overall a western limbed orientation, so I suspect some limitation to a west/left turning track as a transitive influence - might be a correction coming from the Euro.

Lastly, there's a bit of an intangible with this...   The very fast bias in the total troposphere lags the surface drag behind, with cold not getting scoured "out" in time prior to the system moving off.   If the coalesce to track along and S of LI fails to take place, and this does move west/left of our latitude (SNE), for the love lorn model/storm enthusiasts ... that will likely insure at least a start as snow and then a transition sequence.  We don't have a shortage of cold air leading this event, either way

 

 

[SJonesWX]

kiss of death right here

[weathafella]

Prove them wrong John-prove the muthufukkas wrong!

[Typhoon Tip]

I’m not sure what I have to prove?

I outlined plenty of uncertainty there

[Cold Miser]

Oh great....Tip started another storm threat thread.

 

 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

00z GFS continues looking locked on a low transit east of the Del Marva /S of LI, placing less emphases on an Ontario primary like the Euro. Another run with a burst of moderate quick hitter snow …

Again … several reason why this type of solution is better supported than the Euro.  Provided those remain … makes the 00z Euro run interesting. It’ll be passing thru the 4.5 day lead 

[cleetussnow]

[Typhoon Tip]

5 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

That’s about what I’d expect from this 3-5”

if using the GFS it’s about a 4 hr in and out with a couple hrs between 1 and 2/hr rates in the middle kind of thing.

things can change tho 
 

 

[Torch Tiger]

18 minutes ago, cleetussnow said:

that is dirty.  probably not much snow CT/RI/SE MA

[Damage In Tolland]

Icy 

[ORH_wxman]

Euro still the warmest on this threat but it looks like it ticked colder at 06z with a little more snow/ice on front end and better CAD reflection at sfc. 
 

Still think the threats after this one are more favorable for winter precip but this one could easily continue to tick colder. 

[Damage In Tolland]

South and East areas near 95 may go above 32 

[dryslot]

Euro is warm after a start of snow to ice to rain.

[CoastalWx]

45 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

South and East areas near 95 may go above 32 

This one is for CNE.

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

This one is for CNE.

Euro is alone 

[CoastalWx]

3 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Euro is alone 

GFS inching north 

[Damage In Tolland]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

GFS inching north 

So is this up your fanny 

[mahk_webstah]

GYX talking mixing up here but the vibe is snow 

[CoastalWx]

9 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

So is this up your fanny 

Like a warm tongue on yours for Thursday.

[ORH_wxman]

21 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

GYX talking mixing up here but the vibe is snow 

Euro punches rain all the way into NNE but it’s after some snow/ice on the front end. A Euro/GFS compromise would prob stay below freezing there though and even prolong it in SNE. Still think this system is the ugliest out of the identifiable threats…it’s also not particularly juiced. Don’t think anyone is seeing an inch of QPF out of this one…euro struggles to get most people to half inch of QPF. 

[Typhoon Tip]

55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Euro punches rain all the way into NNE but it’s after some snow/ice on the front end. A Euro/GFS compromise would prob stay below freezing there though and even prolong it in SNE. Still think this system is the ugliest out of the identifiable threats…it’s also not particularly juiced. Don’t think anyone is seeing an inch of QPF out of this one…euro struggles to get most people to half inch of QPF. 

Agreed ... most of these facets I've covered in the thread opener. 

The crucible of time has burned off quality readers/contributors, leaving more and more of this cackling nonsense - it's getting more and more like a Trump rally in here...  [ this is an opportunity for the, "you're new to this forum" response ]  I guess.  

I'm not sure what the source of the antipathy is or is felt somehow justified by, but l have more confidence that is is completely out of line and subjectively based on idiocy and thus unwarranted, than I do that  this "...2-4 or 3-5" potential will survive verification.

 

  

 

[CoastalWx]

I don’t know, I’m not giving this much time to analyze. Maybe it ticks colder in euro, but both the op and ensembles have a dampening s/w peeling NW of us with a repeating high. “Next” is the first thing that comes to mind for me. 
 

I see the gfs, but my guess is comes north and warmer. 

[dryslot]

This one on Thursday is going to be messy the way i see it.

[Damage In Tolland]

Why the piss and vinegar Tippy? 

[mahk_webstah]

This is the meat pack storm.  Everything on the ground by Thursday will be frozen over and preserved for the last season ending melt probably in April.

[ineedsnow]

12z GFS still thumps

[ineedsnow]

3 to 5 north of the pike

[ineedsnow]

CMC is a sleet fest

[Typhoon Tip]

Will and I mentioned back and forth last week that as we head thru these first two weeks of February, that model performance was going be challenged.

In this case, crucially what is taking place is that the Euro is putting more emphasis on the southern Canada transit of a N/stream S/W and attending low ... I had referred to that low as a primary, but it's technically not that. It's just really the N/stream interfering by bullying wave space into a fragile S/stream impulse.   The GFS places less emphasis on that feature in southern Canada, and this creates a bigger synoptic gap, resulting less negative interference, allowing it to generate more coastal response - albeit weak overall, but enough so to put in play more of what people want to see happen.

Normally in this situation I'd say there is a 50/50 chance of either; both argument are valid.   The reason why I was leaning more GFS, however, was the NAO, which is gone/going negative during that period. This really should suppress the Canadian transit and help the wholesale commit more to a GFS -like solution..  12z is bumped N like Scott was mentioning, confusing matters because not really doing so because of the N/stream. It's still weaker with that N/stream S/W compared to prior Euro. 

Then we get into idiosyncrasies like the system moving so fast. It may be that any antecedent cold anomaly in position doesn't get scoured out in time - in which case, any model going west may error some in the lowest level, anyway... GGEM kind of likes that idea, interestingly.  It looks like a scalping sleet fest inside a warm sector which is weird.

In the end, model error incarnate.  

The intangible of seasonal trend to be cold, while finding the least amount of actual snow that is physically possible relative to a cold hemisphere, is difficult not to invade one's perception. LOL   I get it.  It doesn't lend to anything over performing, does it -  ...It's not the most sciency thing to say, but regardless the actual cause for that ( I suspect it's simply too much speed/compression but whatever - ), it's hard to knock such a persistent result trend.  

[weathafella]

3 hours ago, mahk_webstah said:

This is the meat pack storm.  Everything on the ground by Thursday will be frozen over and preserved for the last season ending melt probably in April.

Presuming the euro is dead wrong.