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February 2025 General Discussion


Spartman
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6 minutes ago, dmc76 said:

MSP picked up 3-8” across the entire metro area. South MSP was forecasted to be on the low end 

Hrrr was putting out 1-2” for most of the metro south of I-694 last night. This storm actually ended up closer to what was modeled a couple days ago. 6-8” across the north metro. 4-6” across the central metro and 3-5” across southern portions.
 

Imo the airport is at the southern end of the central metro, and south of the Minnesota River is what I’d consider south metro.  

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MSP picked up 3-8” across the entire metro area. South MSP was forecasted to be on the low end 

The forecast was much different when the winter storm watches for 5-8” was originally issued and forecast. A lot changed in the models after that.

Edited to add the weather story graphic from a couple days ago from MPX that highlighted the south metro being in the bullseye.

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45 minutes ago, Snowstorms said:

Visibility down to 0.5 miles with some heavier snow right now. About 2" down so far. 

Intense band going to make its way into the GTA over the next hour. 

Ya, this storm over performed for me. Im over 4" now, should finish with 5-6". Means I now beat all of last year with still some time to go in the season. 

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2 minutes ago, mississaugasnow said:

Ya, this storm over performed for me. Im over 4" now, should finish with 5-6". Means I now beat all of last year with still some time to go in the season. 

That's awesome. Last year was a stinker for Hamilton. Will this storm help put you ahead of any futility records?

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-sd's to -20's across the area this morning. Looks like this coming week is going to be a cold, dry stretch with a stronger shot of colder air coming in tomorrow. Also looks like the winds will stay a bit mellow, which will allow for rapid ice formation here on the W side of the Lake. A lot less sea smoke rising from the open water now, which is a sign of near freezing water. 

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So while yesterday's storm ended up being not that big of a deal in the MSP metro, further E it was actually a pretty significant storm. Wausau recorded 9.5" and reported a snow depth of 12" after yesterday and Green Bay recorded 7" with 8 on the ground as of yesterday. That's a signifcant hit, and does bode well for us down below as it finally sets up a N-S snow depth gradient for storms to track.

Edit: This also means that Wausau and Green Bay are at 14.2 and 10.6 inches of snow for the month, respectively. Crazy how just two storms changes things up there.

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12 hours ago, nvck said:

Ended up with 2-3” I believe, didn't do any measurements but enough to cover the grass is a success in my book! That band slowly moving south this evening really saved us, with decent rates for a couple hours

Decent? How about 2"/hr lol. That's big for our region. I stopped in Mt. Pleasant about 9:30 and it was still snowing decently and could see the results of the weenie band I'd seen on radar about an hour before. I'd say KMOP had 3+

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 906 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0815 PM Snow Mount Pleasant 43.60N 84.78W 02/08/2025 M3.0 Inch Isabella MI Public Observed in 90 minutes.

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1 hour ago, RogueWaves said:

Decent? How about 2"/hr lol. That's big for our region. I stopped in Mt. Pleasant about 9:30 and it was still snowing decently and could see the results of the weenie band I'd seen on radar about an hour before. I'd say KMOP had 3+

Preliminary Local Storm Report National Weather Service Grand Rapids MI 906 PM EST Sat Feb 8 2025 ..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON... ..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE.... ..REMARKS.. 0815 PM Snow Mount Pleasant 43.60N 84.78W 02/08/2025 M3.0 Inch Isabella MI Public Observed in 90 minutes.

huh, I guess it didn't last as long as I thought it did, thats pretty impressive then

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3 hours ago, Brian D said:

-sd's to -20's across the area this morning. Looks like this coming week is going to be a cold, dry stretch with a stronger shot of colder air coming in tomorrow. Also looks like the winds will stay a bit mellow, which will allow for rapid ice formation here on the W side of the Lake. A lot less sea smoke rising from the open water now, which is a sign of near freezing water. 

I think the past two winters being so mild for most of the Great Lakes( I know 22-23 wasn't mild from Minnesota on west though)along with such a warm Fall last year might have allowed the warmer water to get a little deeper in the lakes. It hasn't been a warm winter at all but it seems like it's taking extra long for the lakes to cool down with the exception of Erie but that's a shallow lake. I mean, December was right around normal here with some very cold balanced out by a few very mild days at the end of the month, January had below normal temperatures with definitely some very extreme cold mixed in that you don't see every winter, yet Lake Huron still has some 40 degree water temps in the deep part. I can't remember seeing that happen when it hasn't been a mild winter. 

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3 hours ago, roardog said:

I think the past two winters being so mild for most of the Great Lakes( I know 22-23 wasn't mild from Minnesota on west though)along with such a warm Fall last year might have allowed the warmer water to get a little deeper in the lakes. It hasn't been a warm winter at all but it seems like it's taking extra long for the lakes to cool down with the exception of Erie but that's a shallow lake. I mean, December was right around normal here with some very cold balanced out by a few very mild days at the end of the month, January had below normal temperatures with definitely some very extreme cold mixed in that you don't see every winter, yet Lake Huron still has some 40 degree water temps in the deep part. I can't remember seeing that happen when it hasn't been a mild winter. 

Could be the case. The smaller lakes are thick with ice.

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1 hour ago, michsnowfreak said:

Sounds like an overperformer?

It did. Most models had us around 2-4", but HRRR was a bit aggressive with 4-6". 

Most places saw between 5-8". 

Got a solid 9" on the ground now. YYZ is around 26.5" for the season. 

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On 2/9/2025 at 11:23 AM, michsnowfreak said:

These are amazing. Where does the 1830s-1860s data come from?

It's modeled data, and I've found some more to go back to 1806 now. With super computers, and some wx data from way back then, they put out some stuff. I'm sure they have records to use that we don't have. It's estimated of course, and I won't use it, unless I have a least 2 datasets for an avg. Currently using 7 sets from 1850, but earlier is 2 or 3. 

 

Midwest Jan anom 5yr revised 2.gif

Midwest Jan anom 10yr revised 2.gif

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On 2/9/2025 at 1:00 PM, roardog said:

I think the past two winters being so mild for most of the Great Lakes( I know 22-23 wasn't mild from Minnesota on west though)along with such a warm Fall last year might have allowed the warmer water to get a little deeper in the lakes. It hasn't been a warm winter at all but it seems like it's taking extra long for the lakes to cool down with the exception of Erie but that's a shallow lake. I mean, December was right around normal here with some very cold balanced out by a few very mild days at the end of the month, January had below normal temperatures with definitely some very extreme cold mixed in that you don't see every winter, yet Lake Huron still has some 40 degree water temps in the deep part. I can't remember seeing that happen when it hasn't been a mild winter. 

Think your right. It's taking a bit longer. 

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