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North of the Pike Slop Fest Jan 31-Feb 1


HoarfrostHubb
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1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

Nam is a decent hit from like BED north. Gets close to BOS. A race between the colder air filtering in and leftover dynamics.

Sell....maybe up by Ray they grab a couple....I'm in the "coatings at the end" camp for the pike region....up near NH border will prob be able to squeeze out an inch or two.

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Sell....maybe up by Ray they grab a couple....I'm in the "coatings at the end" camp for the pike region....up near NH border will prob be able to squeeze out an inch or two.

Yeah maybe a coating here. Ray has a shot of a couple. 
 

I think best shot of 3-4 is the narrow fronto zone wherever that lies. But that looks to be VT into NH. 

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6 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

lol that NAM run.
 

Really is something relying on a model that’s 5 degrees too cold at initialization. 


The 6z euro is tracking much closer to current temps.

PSM already 36/28

 

12z NAM    12k at 10am has me at 33     3k is 35    current temp 33 with 15 minutes to go.   

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50 minutes ago, DomNH said:

New NAM is cold and snowy in the Rt. 2 - border region. We take with a grain of salt. 

Perhaps ...  it is the NAM.  Never a bad idea  LOL

That said, it is 36/31 here, however ... I personally fail to see where we are getting warm air into this region above the deck.  The sounding is chilly, suggesting any warmth at all is restricted to the surface to 1200'   Every sigma above is at or below 0C?    'less I'm mistaken. 

Probably fall rates dictate this bad boys distribution -

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4 minutes ago, ineedsnow said:

12z NAM    12k at 10am has me at 33     3k is 35    current temp 33 with 15 minutes to go.   

It's pretty warm aloft today. Highs will depend on how much mixing there is. If there's light rain around this afternoon it'll cap them, if its dry it wouldn't be hard to pop near 40 for alot of areas. CAA really doesn't start til after 23-0z 

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Just now, wx2fish said:

It's pretty warm aloft today. Highs will depend on how much mixing there is. If there's light rain around this afternoon it'll cap them, if its dry it wouldn't be hard to pop near 40 for alot of areas. CAA really doesn't start til after 23-0z 

even it does warm though it should cool pretty quick after the precip starts... sticking with 3 to 4 here final call

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