February Medium/Long Range Thread

[psuhoffman]

EPS has the signal for around Feb 20th, GEPS also...

[winter_warlock]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

EPS has the signal for around Feb 20th, GEPS also...

 To my untrained eye. The 20th actually looks like a better pattern for a more widespread biggie storm. Unless I'm looking at it wrong lol 

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS has the signal for around Feb 20th, GEPS also...

Add the AI to the list.

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

EPS has the signal for around Feb 20th, GEPS also...

Chuck's been quiet

[Ji]

when have you ever seen with an EPS mean of a foot at Dulles lol

[Weather Will]

Lot of hits on WB 12Z EPS

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

when have you ever seen with an EPS mean of a foot at Dulles lol

I was thinking, the Eps mean looks right based on what the AI is showing but not the Euro operational. Also, how often is the ensemble snowfall mean more than the operational?  I don't know, but it's pretty rare if my memory in correct.

[Weather Will]

WB prob of 18, 12, 6, and 3 inches next 15 days.

[WxUSAF]

lol almost 20% chance of 18” IMBY.  Bananas

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

WB prob of 18, 12, 6, and 3 inches next 15 days.

Where is the inch map.  That is more my speed.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Chuck's been quiet

He admitted that look is good yesterday when I posted the extended eps, but he doubts it ends up that way due to recent seasonal trends.  Thing is I was in his camp to start the season but I’ve seen enough this winter that I now believe we have broken out of the longer term cycle we were stuck in. The pacific base state is different. I don’t think we get the same end of season torch we’ve had most of the last 6 years. We will see. Betting against warm is risky these days!  

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

I was thinking, the Eps mean looks right based on what the AI is showing but not the Euro operational. Also, how often is the ensemble snowfall mean more than the operational?  I don't know, but it's pretty rare if my memory in correct.

It's a very impressive mean, so this is not to deb on it...but the way it gets there is not as sure a thing as when its from mostly one or two defined threats.  Instead about 4" of it is from that one event...the rest is spread out across like 5 waves where only a minority of the members have a hit for each one.  On the one hand it means we have a chance with multiple waves.  But on the other hand...if you just take each one the most likely outcome is a miss...historically in these setups that is a recipe for a possible failure despite a crazy good looking mean, although not usually this good...but in the past that is how we failed when the EPS has some 5 or 6" mean for a week and we thought it looked good...but it was from a few hits on multiple waves and once the members converged on the most likely outcome (a miss) for each wave the mean went down to nada.

 

I am NOT predicting that here, just pointing out one thing to be cautious about...and that is for the waves after next Tuesday.  I think some snow from that seems to be a really good bet...enough to make Ji happy...that's another story.  

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Interstate said:

Where is the inch map.  That is more my speed.

so sorry 

[WEATHER53]

2 hours ago, Ruin said:

Key take away models suck 5 days out sometimes even the next day.

Thats a no no 

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

lol almost 20% chance of 18” IMBY.  Bananas

Ji would like to point out that means you have an 80% chance of NOT getting 18" 

[Weather Will]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Ji would like to point out that means you have an 80% chance of NOT getting 18" 

I am a little worried about the multiple wave issue skewing the mean but with a little luck we shore multiple times....

[davidjd1114]

Lot of hits on WB 12Z EPS

.

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Weather Will said:

I am a little worried about the multiple wave issue skewing the mean but with a little luck we shore multiple times....

yea as I mentioned above it's a much riskier way to get that same clown map look than when its from 1 or 2 defined threats with majority support.  But the waves day 7-12 all trended south some and look better today, not "likely" yet but way more hopeful than yesterday and the threat around Feb 20 is starting to show itself a little.  It's a good run, I don't want people to think I am saying otherwise...just use caution with that crazy mean. 

[nw baltimore wx]

12 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

lol almost 20% chance of 18” IMBY.  Bananas

I’m liking the over 40% chance at a foot. 
 

[Eskimo Joe]

Almost a 50% chance of 12" of snow for the northwest suburbs on the MEAN is really impressive. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Thats a no no 

I haven't said a thing, I keep my word 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

13 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

lol almost 20% chance of 18” IMBY.  Bananas

18" and bananas definitely lead to a pants tent forecast! 

[aldie 22]

Ah the age old question...if you knew you were getting 20" of snow in winter would you want it all in one storm or 20 1" storms?

[nw baltimore wx]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Ah the age old question...if you knew you were getting 20" of snow in winter would you want it all in one storm or 20 1" storms?

Depends on temperatures for me. If it’s going to stay cold, give me a bunch of smaller storms. I love snowcover.  Otherwise, give me the big dog.

[mitchnick]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It's a very impressive mean, so this is not to deb on it...but the way it gets there is not as sure a thing as when its from mostly one or two defined threats.  Instead about 4" of it is from that one event...the rest is spread out across like 5 waves where only a minority of the members have a hit for each one.  On the one hand it means we have a chance with multiple waves.  But on the other hand...if you just take each one the most likely outcome is a miss...historically in these setups that is a recipe for a possible failure despite a crazy good looking mean, although not usually this good...but in the past that is how we failed when the EPS has some 5 or 6" mean for a week and we thought it looked good...but it was from a few hits on multiple waves and once the members converged on the most likely outcome (a miss) for each wave the mean went down to nada.

 

I am NOT predicting that here, just pointing out one thing to be cautious about...and that is for the waves after next Tuesday.  I think some snow from that seems to be a really good bet...enough to make Ji happy...that's another story.  

I agree it's probably a "cheesy" way of getting to those totals, but we haven't  had a snowfall mean like that, cheesy or legit, since 2016. So there's something to be said about that, which it sounds like you  sorta acknowledged so I don't want to make it sound like I'm being critical.

[Interstate]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

so sorry 

Left that one for @ravensrule

[Ruin]

Thats a yes yes yes 

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Ah the age old question...if you knew you were getting 20" of snow in winter would you want it all in one storm or 20 1" storms?

40 1/2 inch storms

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 To my untrained eye. The 20th actually looks like a better pattern for a more widespread biggie storm. Unless I'm looking at it wrong lol 

That is a more classic big snow look yes

[Fozz]

4 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said:

Depends on temperatures for me. If it’s going to stay cold, give me a bunch of smaller storms. I love snowcover.  Otherwise, give me the big dog.

Exactly what I was about to say.

Knowing our climo and knowing that the mid January 2024/2025 cold ain’t happening most of the time, I’d go with the big dog.

Makes it a lot more memorable.