February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1887466049462739029

Well, well 

[clskinsfan]

3 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1887466049462739029

Low end to moderate Nino sounds good to me for next winter. 

[T. August]

Regarding the event next week - it’s no surprise, but the OP GFS is the snowiest outcome among its own ensemble as well as that of the Euro ens and CMC ens. Only one random member comes close to it (for the cities at least).

Verbatim, the general ceiling is 10-12” which would be sweet.

[WxUSAF]

Was someone complaining that GFS, GEFS, Icon, GGEM, Ukie, Euro, and EPS all give the metro corridor and surrounding areas a warning level snowfall at D5?

[H2O]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Was someone complaining that GFS, GEFS, Icon, GGEM, Ukie, Euro, and EPS all give the metro corridor and surrounding areas a warning level snowfall at D5?

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Was someone complaining that GFS, GEFS, Icon, GGEM, Ukie, Euro, and EPS all give the metro corridor and surrounding areas a warning level snowfall at D5?

Honestly I can't imagine anyone complaining  about that!!!

[DarkSharkWX]

AIFS has wave after wave
 

[Duca892]

Winter cancelled?

[DarkSharkWX]

 

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

AIFS has wave after wave

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, DarkSharkWX said:

 

 

Tuesday has less qpf and a little south. Next Saturday looks real nice.

[Maestrobjwa]

13 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Low end to moderate Nino sounds good to me for next winter. 

I'd love to get a good crack at that...especially IF the PDO is finally turning around. Btw...anybody have any thoughts on that? I'm a little unclear on how we'll know that we're in a better cycle of that.

[Kmlwx]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

I'd love to get a good crack at that...especially IF the PDO is finally turning around. Btw...anybody have any thoughts on that? I'm a little unclear on how we'll know that we're in a better cycle of that.

I mean you'll just have to watch the PDO index charts. There's really no way to tell if you're in a better cycle until it lasts a while and confirms that it was a better cycle. Although it is called the Pacific DECADAL Oscillation for a reason. So if it goes strongly one way - it's probably got some amount of staying power. 

To put it like a sports analogy - you really don't know you're team is in a dynasty period until after you're experiencing it and after.

[WxUSAF]

Can ECMWF get our AI overlords to budget some of their infinite digital brains for better graphics?

[winter_warlock]

18 minutes ago, Duca892 said:

Winter cancelled?

What????

[dailylurker]

11 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Can ECMWF get our AI overlords to budget some of their infinite digital brains for better graphics?

I have a hard time taking it seriously because of the graphics. It looks like something from TWC in 1987 lol

[Heisy]

I have a hard time taking it seriously because of the graphics. It looks like something from TWC in 1987 lol

That’s how the normal Euro looks on that site too, euro Ai comes out on weatherbell later


.

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, Paleocene said:

That patch of darker purple in Loudoun has my name on it

[TSSN+]

16 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Can ECMWF get our AI overlords to budget some of their infinite digital brains for better graphics?

There is better ones on wxbell but they don’t come out right away 

[Ralph Wiggum]

48 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

This is thru only 300 hrs. Some of those waves must be scoring.

 

[winter_warlock]

Anyone seen the AI snow map?

[psuhoffman]

52 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said:

https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1887466049462739029

There have been some similarities to 2009 this year... what if....  

[JenkinsJinkies]

1 hour ago, AdamHLG said:

January 21, 2016 was a loooooong time ago.  We used to get the big ones every 3 years.  We are at year 9.  At some point one of these needs to deliver 18" plus.  It is time to reset the timer so let's do it already.  I can understand the doom and gloom.  I like snow like the rest of ya, but at some point I want more than 6".    And 6" I might add means it's really 3.5" most of the time by game day.      

What doesn't help is that the deep south scored in a relativistic way while we're still nickel and dime-ing to climo. 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

There have been some similarities to 2009 this year... what if....  

Sweet i can't wait to get a big dog in December then listen to Ji complain and cancel winter because it doesn't snow again for much of January then get blitzed at the end of January into early February then listen to Ji complain because it didn't snow again that winter. Where do I sign?

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Was someone complaining that GFS, GEFS, Icon, GGEM, Ukie, Euro, and EPS all give the metro corridor and surrounding areas a warning level snowfall at D5?

I think some let those two crazy runs of the GFS/EURO 48 hours ago set their bar unrealistically high.  Todays GFS we can throw in there also but as others pointed out its an extreme outlier.  But synoptically this was never the best setup for a MECS+ level event.  You've pointed it out.  I've tried to point it out without being a Deb.  This has legit SECS level potential...maybe low level MECS is everything goes totally perfectly and we get lucky...but its just not the setup for a classic 12"+ type storm.  But some saw a clown map with 18" and...well...now 6" feels like a letdown.  

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think some let those two crazy runs of the GFS/EURO 48 hours ago set their bar unrealistically high.  Todays GFS we can throw in there also but as others pointed out its an extreme outlier.  But synoptically this was never the best setup for a MECS+ level event.  You've pointed it out.  I've tried to point it out without being a Deb.  This has legit SECS level potential...maybe low level MECS is everything goes totally perfectly and we get lucky...but its just not the setup for a classic 12"+ type storm.  But some saw a clown map with 18" and...well...now 6" feels like a letdown.  

6" is still a lot of snow imo

[mitchnick]

Since it's probably been since 1/16 when we saw an Eps snowfall mean this good, I had to post it since nobody else did

[winter_warlock]

Wow!!! A foot from Baltimore on north!!!!

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

6" is still a lot of snow imo

If it comes in separate waves as something like 4", 1", 1"... with some rain in the middle and at the end... will that satisfy the masses?

[winter_warlock]

13 minutes ago, bncho said:

6" is still a lot of snow imo

Yeah I agree!!!

[Solution Man]

1 hour ago, Duca892 said:

Winter cancelled?