February Medium/Long Range Thread

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Let’s take the blend and call it a huge win=8-10. 

I can live with that!!

[ravensrule]

7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

My concern is that low trends stronger as we get closer, and thus things get warmer than this run. I mean yeah as is I'd take that in a second! As long as it doesn't get worse and turn into another advisory slop event like the cmc seems to be heading towards.

You and @North Balti Zen should move in together, are you the guy he is moving into in Hamilton?. 

[H2O]

Is it just me or is the euro struggling more with this than the GFS?  the 0z euro was well north?  Now its south?  GFS might be shifting around as well and overdone but euro is like 75 mile jumps it seems

[brooklynwx99]

just going to leave this here

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just going to leave this here

Mint? Or Mentos?

[Ruin]

Key take away models suck 5 days out sometimes even the next day.

[brooklynwx99]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Mint?

you tell me. rotting west based -NAO, huge 50/50 signal, and vort digging through the Rockies

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you tell me. rotting west based -NAO, huge 50/50 signal, and vort digging through the Rockies

op almost has my Feb 20 storm...gives us a couple inches of snow but fails to bring it all together until too far off the coast...but the idea is there.  

[Maestrobjwa]

12 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

You and @North Balti Zen should move in together, are you the guy he is moving into in Hamilton?. 

I am not, lol But listen, you get fringed as much as we have over 6 years I think occasional bouts of frustrated posts oughta be understandable (although his are more frequent than mine)

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you tell me. rotting west based -NAO, huge 50/50 signal, and vort digging through the Rockies

In case it isn't clear, let me add to this.

[Violentweatherfan]

8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just going to leave this here

That’s @Doormanquote

[EastCoast NPZ]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

So is the SER

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

you tell me. rotting west based -NAO, huge 50/50 signal, and vort digging through the Rockies

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, EastCoast NPZ said:

So is the SER

That's a flat ridge, not really pumped on roids

[AlexD1990]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

In case it isn't clear, let me add to this.

If someone wouldn't mind shedding some light...isnt the ridge axis too far west? or does the HL block provide enough of a suppressive flow to prevent tracking inland/up?

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

In case it isn't clear, let me add to this.

This may sound funny, but labeled maps like are actually helpful to us amateurs that sometimes struggle with 500mb 

[DarkSharkWX]

5 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

In case it isn't clear, let me add to this.

I'd assume that without an STJ you'd want the longwave pattern to be lifted more northwest(compared to Jan) so that weaker waves can hit you

[clskinsfan]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's a flat ridge, not really pumped on roids

Yep. And at least it wont be New Orleans getting buried in that setup. 

[winter_warlock]

Anyone see the AI-euro?  

[T. August]

Eps run was crazy…. 10-12” mean through 360. Next week’s event was a tiny step back - the center of snowfall shifted north of the M/D line. Still not bad with 4-5” on the 24 hour mean.

[EastCoast NPZ]

6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That's a flat ridge, not really pumped on roids

I guess.  But the heights are pretty high.

[stormy]

52 minutes ago, Ji said:

why does dr no hate us so much

I wouldn't lose sleep over dr no....  24 hrs. ago it said i would receive .28" rain.  I received 1.28'!!!

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Anyone see the AI-euro?  

Comes out at 2pm.

[eduggs]

4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said:

If someone wouldn't mind shedding some light...isnt the ridge axis too far west? or does the HL block provide enough of a suppressive flow to prevent tracking inland/up?

It's an ensemble mean at 300hr. There are 100 ways to fck that up. Impossible to know if the synoptic setup would be workable. Snow vs. no-snow would be determined by shortwave details masked by the time range and ens averaging. But... still prefer a favorable look than unfavorable... even if almost useless at day 13.

[Ephesians2]

https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1887466049462739029

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, T. August said:

Eps run was crazy…. 10-12” mean through 360. Next week’s event was a tiny step back - the center of snowfall shifted north of the M/D line. Still not bad with 4-5” on the 24 hour mean.

This is thru only 300 hrs. Some of those waves must be scoring.

[Interstate]

46 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

January 21, 2016 was a loooooong time ago.  We used to get the big ones every 3 years.  We are at year 9.  At some point one of these needs to deliver 18" plus.  It is time to reset the timer so let's do it already.  I can understand the doom and gloom.  I like snow like the rest of ya, but at some point I want more than 6".    And 6" I might add means it's really 3.5" most of the time by game day.      

Yeah. We have been spoiled in the 2000s. But go back and look how many time from 1970 to 2000 where we got over 15 inches. 

[winter_warlock]

 Ahh ok ty bro

[Ephesians2]

49 minutes ago, AdamHLG said:

January 21, 2016 was a loooooong time ago.  We used to get the big ones every 3 years.  We are at year 9.  At some point one of these needs to deliver 18" plus.  It is time to reset the timer so let's do it already.  I can understand the doom and gloom.  I like snow like the rest of ya, but at some point I want more than 6".    And 6" I might add means it's really 3.5" most of the time by game day.      

We aren't really losing the big storms, just the light and moderate ones. That seems like the real problem. There have been much larger intervals without an 18"+ or 12"+ storm. 

https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr

[winter_warlock]

 Question for ya all...  which model has been more accurate this winter... euro... or the euro AI?