Ruin Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Key take away models suck 5 days out sometimes even the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, Ralph Wiggum said: Mint? you tell me. rotting west based -NAO, huge 50/50 signal, and vort digging through the Rockies 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: you tell me. rotting west based -NAO, huge 50/50 signal, and vort digging through the Rockies op almost has my Feb 20 storm...gives us a couple inches of snow but fails to bring it all together until too far off the coast...but the idea is there. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12 minutes ago, ravensrule said: You and @North Balti Zen should move in together, are you the guy he is moving into in Hamilton?. I am not, lol But listen, you get fringed as much as we have over 6 years I think occasional bouts of frustrated posts oughta be understandable (although his are more frequent than mine) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you tell me. rotting west based -NAO, huge 50/50 signal, and vort digging through the Rockies In case it isn't clear, let me add to this. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Violentweatherfan Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: just going to leave this here That’s @Doormanquote 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS So is the SER 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: you tell me. rotting west based -NAO, huge 50/50 signal, and vort digging through the Rockies Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Just now, EastCoast NPZ said: So is the SER That's a flat ridge, not really pumped on roids 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: In case it isn't clear, let me add to this. If someone wouldn't mind shedding some light...isnt the ridge axis too far west? or does the HL block provide enough of a suppressive flow to prevent tracking inland/up? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: In case it isn't clear, let me add to this. This may sound funny, but labeled maps like are actually helpful to us amateurs that sometimes struggle with 500mb 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: In case it isn't clear, let me add to this. I'd assume that without an STJ you'd want the longwave pattern to be lifted more northwest(compared to Jan) so that weaker waves can hit you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's a flat ridge, not really pumped on roids Yep. And at least it wont be New Orleans getting buried in that setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Anyone see the AI-euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Eps run was crazy…. 10-12” mean through 360. Next week’s event was a tiny step back - the center of snowfall shifted north of the M/D line. Still not bad with 4-5” on the 24 hour mean. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That's a flat ridge, not really pumped on roids I guess. But the heights are pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 52 minutes ago, Ji said: why does dr no hate us so much I wouldn't lose sleep over dr no.... 24 hrs. ago it said i would receive .28" rain. I received 1.28'!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Anyone see the AI-euro? Comes out at 2pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 4 minutes ago, AlexD1990 said: If someone wouldn't mind shedding some light...isnt the ridge axis too far west? or does the HL block provide enough of a suppressive flow to prevent tracking inland/up? It's an ensemble mean at 300hr. There are 100 ways to fck that up. Impossible to know if the synoptic setup would be workable. Snow vs. no-snow would be determined by shortwave details masked by the time range and ens averaging. But... still prefer a favorable look than unfavorable... even if almost useless at day 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1887466049462739029 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, T. August said: Eps run was crazy…. 10-12” mean through 360. Next week’s event was a tiny step back - the center of snowfall shifted north of the M/D line. Still not bad with 4-5” on the 24 hour mean. This is thru only 300 hrs. Some of those waves must be scoring. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 46 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: January 21, 2016 was a loooooong time ago. We used to get the big ones every 3 years. We are at year 9. At some point one of these needs to deliver 18" plus. It is time to reset the timer so let's do it already. I can understand the doom and gloom. I like snow like the rest of ya, but at some point I want more than 6". And 6" I might add means it's really 3.5" most of the time by game day. Yeah. We have been spoiled in the 2000s. But go back and look how many time from 1970 to 2000 where we got over 15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Ahh ok ty bro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ephesians2 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 49 minutes ago, AdamHLG said: January 21, 2016 was a loooooong time ago. We used to get the big ones every 3 years. We are at year 9. At some point one of these needs to deliver 18" plus. It is time to reset the timer so let's do it already. I can understand the doom and gloom. I like snow like the rest of ya, but at some point I want more than 6". And 6" I might add means it's really 3.5" most of the time by game day. We aren't really losing the big storms, just the light and moderate ones. That seems like the real problem. There have been much larger intervals without an 18"+ or 12"+ storm. https://www.weather.gov/lwx/winter_storm-pr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Question for ya all... which model has been more accurate this winter... euro... or the euro AI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1887466049462739029 Well, well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 minutes ago, Ephesians2 said: https://x.com/PaulRoundy1/status/1887466049462739029 Low end to moderate Nino sounds good to me for next winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Regarding the event next week - it’s no surprise, but the OP GFS is the snowiest outcome among its own ensemble as well as that of the Euro ens and CMC ens. Only one random member comes close to it (for the cities at least). Verbatim, the general ceiling is 10-12” which would be sweet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Was someone complaining that GFS, GEFS, Icon, GGEM, Ukie, Euro, and EPS all give the metro corridor and surrounding areas a warning level snowfall at D5? 7 6 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Was someone complaining that GFS, GEFS, Icon, GGEM, Ukie, Euro, and EPS all give the metro corridor and surrounding areas a warning level snowfall at D5? 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts