February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Alfoman]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Which F word? The one that makes weenies excited or the one that makes them jump off cliffs?

I guess you could say there's an F word for every situation in this forum 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Alfoman said:

I guess you could say there's an F word for every situation in this forum 

Some nice... some not so nice lol

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Which F word? The one that makes weenies excited or the one that makes them jump off cliffs?

FOLKS
vs
fuck...

[WxUSAF]

Ukie is roughly GGEM-like. 4-7” or so before a flip to sleet and then dryslot for metro areas. Starts pre-dawn Tuesday. More energy behind but thermals are north.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GEFS looks good, similar to 6Z.

UK looks decent, 3-5 of snow then over to sleet. 

Confidence that we get something is increasing. 

[Eskimo Joe]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Ukie is roughly GGEM-like. 4-7” or so before a flip to sleet and then dryslot for metro areas. Starts pre-dawn Tuesday. More energy behind but thermals are north.

Events have trended drier nearly every time this winter. The Ukie, at this range, would seem more reasonable.

[T. August]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

GEFS looks good, similar to 6Z.

UK looks decent, 3-5 of snow then over to sleet. 

Confidence that we get something is increasing. 

Gefs is good for some breathing room. It removed a lot of the bad misses to the north.

[IronTy]

27 minutes ago, weatherkyle said:

I think it should be muted just based on the fact that it’s Thursday and the storm doesn’t start until Tuesday morning.  
 

I’m at least not buying into the huge amounts.  It’s just digital porn 

You shut your mouth when you're talking to me.  

[mappy]

31 minutes ago, weatherkyle said:

I think it should be muted just based on the fact that it’s Thursday and the storm doesn’t start until Tuesday morning.  
 

I’m at least not buying into the huge amounts.  It’s just digital porn 

You’re new here. You’ll figure it out that the bulk of the weenies here are all in 10 days out lol

[brooklynwx99]

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GEFS...4 day mean.  Snowy period ahead inside 9 days.

[Eskimo Joe]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

[DDweatherman]

I’m gonna make a quasi-Ji statement. Up in my area we’ve had several 4-6” storms the last few years, including a couple last winter and a 4&7 Incher this year. The 7” a few weeks ago was awesome given the rates. 
 

I’m gonna big dog hunt this one at least for 6-10” which I think is very reachable. Getting 5” over 18 hours wouldn’t give as much excitement as 8 or 10 would. 
 

just give me the 12z gfs or the last Ai run 

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

I’m gonna make a quasi-Ji statement. Up in my area we’ve had several 4-6” storms the last few years, including a couple last winter and a 4&7 Incher this year. The 7” a few weeks ago was awesome given the rates. 
 

I’m gonna big dog hunt this one at least for 6-10” which I think is very reachable. Getting 5” over 18 hours wouldn’t give as much excitement as 8 or 10 would. 
 

just give me the 12z gfs or the last Ai run 

Picky picky.

[aldie 22]

17 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Events have trended drier nearly every time this winter. The Ukie, at this range, would seem more reasonable.

last night trended pretty wet

[DDweatherman]

3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

last night trended pretty wet

Saturday is looking wetter too 

[cbmclean]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

Pretty up top, but I want to see that SER beat down.

[clskinsfan]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

Arctic blocking going insane on the GEFS

Much better than yesterday. Further south. Game on. 

[bncho]

Euro stuck at 63.

[87storms]

It appears next week is when deep winter returns

[T. August]

CMC ens look good. 24 hour mean is 3-4” for the area, looks a lot like the gefs. Definitely more modest than the output from a few days ago but I’m just glad to not see it go north.

[stormtracker]

Nothing going on yet on the Euro

[catoctin wx]

15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

last night trended pretty wet

TMI

[stormtracker]

Approaching at 123...not as cold as the GFS so far

[stormtracker]

Somebody can check the therms, but 850 zero line well south...surface is along the fall line tho

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, catoctin wx said:

TMI

I have taught you well, call me professor please. 

[stormtracker]

Moderate precip...but thermals are shaky...850 still south of us, but north of RIC

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Somebody can check the therms, but 850 zero line well south...surface is along the fall line tho

the 850 is the main thing. The surface will be fine once it starts precip

[stormtracker]

 Precip is plentiful...just the fucking thermals...850 close to DC...32 right on top.

We lose them both by 135...

[T. August]

Kuchera is 4-6”. Pretty similar to 6z.