February Medium/Long Range Thread

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

It's beautiful. Wish we could lock that run up. It's a dumping for everyone.

Gorgeous. Consolidated the energy and great track. Just like the runs from a couple days ago.

[DDweatherman]

Watching h156 bringing another system across the Missouri valley. Likely will be too warm for us, but stay tuned. 

[bncho]

Now there's an ice storm on the 2nd wave

[DDweatherman]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Gorgeous. Consolidated the energy and great track. Just like the runs from a couple days ago.

I was going to say, I thought of your post where you mentioned the xECS-y runs from the other day were consolidating the energy versus breaking into a bunch of smaller energies. 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

CMC has snow...waiting for the next panels.  Thermals are kinda close

Goes to mix 128

[osfan24]

CMC is like a warmer, less consolidated GFS.

[bncho]

GEM has front thump snow.

[clskinsfan]

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

CMC is like a warmer, less consolidated GFS.

GGEM has a weak clipper sort of thing in Ontario right as the storm arrives and helps warm things up. Take that away and it’s better for us. But yes, also more strung out.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

GEM has front thump snow.

In my opinion GEM is one of the most inaccurate  models especially  for 100+ hours out

[winter_warlock]

If euro AI and original Euro show same thing as Gfs showed this forum will explode

[clskinsfan]

Not going to worry about Canadian thermals. The storm is there. And we are starting to see some consistency on which wave will be consolidated. That is all I care about at this point. It is on. 

[Alfoman]

My excitement is muted because the GFS is on it's own with the moisture feed and boundary location. Need Euro/CMC support before the F word can safely be used for runs like that 

[hstorm]

CMS has about 14 separate rounds of precip (and 14 different precip types) between 2/12-2/14.

(Only minor exaggeration.)

[clskinsfan]

GFS has another shot next Friday as well. 

[WesternFringe]

20 minutes ago, Scraff said:

Boom goes the GooFus! Time to buy a 3rd beer fridge!! 

You can just save money by putting the beers directly in the foot plus of snow you are about to get.

[Ji]

all the follow up waves have trended south/colder on the GFS. I wonder if the models are now seeing the block better

[weatherkyle]

Here’s just the storm amounts.  Model still showing snow from today lol  

 

[Mikeymac5306]

Get that to slow down a little bit and we may break out the George Patton speech for 18Z

[weatherkyle]

9 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

My excitement is muted because the GFS is on it's own with the moisture feed and boundary location. Need Euro/CMC support before the F word can safely be used for runs like that 

I think it should be muted just based on the fact that it’s Thursday and the storm doesn’t start until Tuesday morning.  
 

I’m at least not buying into the huge amounts.  It’s just digital porn 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

all the follow up waves have trended south/colder on the GFS. I wonder if the models are now seeing the block better

I wouldn't give up on any of those waves

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

13 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

My excitement is muted because the GFS is on it's own with the moisture feed and boundary location. Need Euro/CMC support before the F word can safely be used for runs like that 

Euro not too far off, 6Z run got us 6 inches.  

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, weatherkyle said:

I think it should be muted just based on the fact that it’s Thursday and the storm doesn’t start until Tuesday morning.  
 

I’m at least not buying into the huge amounts.  It’s just digital porn 

You must be new here, please let us enjoy this for the next 30mins

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Solution Man said:

You must be new here, please let us enjoy this for the next 30mins

He is very new been here about 12 days lol

[weatherkyle]

Just now, Solution Man said:

You must be new here, please let us enjoy this for the next 30mins

Haha. Yeah. I don’t know what the euro will show. I just know when a model spits out a top 10 snowstorm for me, it’s probably wrong.  We’d average a lot more if sexy model runs actually came to fruition. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, weatherkyle said:

Haha. Yeah. I don’t know what the euro will show. I just know when a model spits out a top 10 snowstorm for me, it’s probably wrong.  We’d average a lot more if sexy model runs actually came to fruition. 

It would also be a lot less fun if we didn’t go nuts over run like this.  But yeah we know what the true odds are.  I will say though that I think the chance for accumulating snow in dc metro is decent.  

[bncho]

5 minutes ago, weatherkyle said:

Haha. Yeah. I don’t know what the euro will show. I just know when a model spits out a top 10 snowstorm for me, it’s probably wrong.  We’d average a lot more if sexy model runs actually came to fruition. 

wonder what you were thinking in 2016...

 

[JenkinsJinkies]

22 minutes ago, Alfoman said:

My excitement is muted because the GFS is on it's own with the moisture feed and boundary location. Need Euro/CMC support before the F word can safely be used for runs like that 

Which F word? The one that makes weenies excited or the one that makes them jump off cliffs?

[Weather Will]

Casual observation. The AI has a more consolidated look the past several runs.  Maybe the globals are now catching on....

[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, weatherkyle said:

Haha. Yeah. I don’t know what the euro will show. I just know when a model spits out a top 10 snowstorm for me, it’s probably wrong.  We’d average a lot more if sexy model runs actually came to fruition. 

Like JB says..... " enjoy the weather... its the only weather u got!! " lol