February Medium/Long Range Thread

[ravensrule]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z AI very similar to 0z but maybe a touch more precip to the north of 0z.

It then has a light event Wednesday night into Thursday. 

Then Tuesday  2/17 has a moderate event.

Thursday 2/20-21 has a stronger storm with initial temp issues. That can and will change.

P.s. I have not mentioned any rain events. 

If the Ai goes 4-4 I’m renaming it Gunnar Henderson. 

[Chris78]

Just now, ravensrule said:

If the Ai goes 4-4 I’m renaming it Gunnar Henderson. 

Fangraghs 83-79. 44% chance of making the playoffs. 4th place

[ravensrule]

9 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Fangraghs 83-79. 44% chance of making the playoffs. 4th place

I completely disagree with that. I guess time will tell. 

[psuhoffman]

It’s a Greenland block. I’m tired of debating the numerical index. 

[winter_warlock]

15 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

If the Ai goes 4-4 I’m renaming it Gunnar Henderson. 

Yesss I agree!!!  Gunner!!

[winter_warlock]

17 minutes ago, Chris78 said:

Fangraghs 83-79. 44% chance of making the playoffs. 4th place

 Nooo.. Orioles Get at least 90 wins... just like I think  AI Goes 5 for 5 in a row!

[winter_warlock]

20 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

If the Ai goes 4-4 I’m renaming it Gunnar Henderson. 

I'm hoping AI goes 5 for 5!! Lol

[RickinBaltimore]

25 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

If the Ai goes 4-4 I’m renaming it Gunnar Henderson. 

Well it then definitely won't in October. (Too soon?)

[DDweatherman]

22 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I completely disagree with that. I guess time will tell. 

I wish I did. I was thinking 86-76, starting rotation will hurt us and the lineup is still not loaded with guys I’m confident about in high leverage situations. O’Neil has to stay healthy, and we should really trade Kjerstad if we’re going to make him a bench player. 
 

hopeful, but if we’re not gonna win something I hope we make Elias look like the ass that he was this offseason and last trade deadline.

[WxUSAF]

You all know I love baseball, but banter thread plz

[dallen7908]

Percent of EPS members giving the Laurel area at least  12" (dash-dot), 6" (dash), 3" (dotted), and 1" (solid) of snow/sleet during the 9-14 day period before 00 UTC February 15. 

[stormtracker]

33 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It’s a Greenland block. I’m tired of debating the numerical index. 

Shut up Chuck. 

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, dallen7908 said:

Percent of EPS members giving the Laurel area at least  12" (dash-dot), 6" (dash), 3" (dotted), and 1" (solid) of snow/sleet during the 9-14 day period before 00 UTC February 15. 

Do you make that graph or is it available on a website?  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

It's a little -AO ridge for some time, with an undercutting south-based +NAO on GEFS. If the CDC monthly or daily composites page was working, I would show you guys a composite of analogs. 

Here's hr384 "the magical load up and load up MECS pattern"

I've seen the phantom outputs at this time of year.. not really impressed 

[dallen7908]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Do you make that graph or is it available on a website?  

Homemade. 

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's a little -AO ridge for some time, with an undercutting south-based +NAO on GEFS. If the CDC monthly or daily composites page was working, I would show you guys a composite of analogs. 

Here's hr384 "the magical load up and load up MECS pattern"

I've seen the phantom outputs at this time of year.. not really impressed 

That’s the gfs. I posted the EPS 

[psuhoffman]

39 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

It's a little -AO ridge for some time, with an undercutting south-based +NAO on GEFS. If the CDC monthly or daily composites page was working, I would show you guys a composite of analogs. 

Here's hr384 "the magical load up and load up MECS pattern"

I've seen the phantom outputs at this time of year.. not really impressed 

Also, there are like a dozen variables. They are almost NEVER all aligned. In almost every sense pattern you focus on the one thing that isn’t perfect. We get snowstorms in slightly flawed patterns all the time. Years ago I looked at every 5”+ storm at BWI going back to 1950. There is a thread with the results somewhere in here. Very few were 100% perfect. The number one factor was the AO. If we had a -AO we can survive flaws elsewhere. We don’t need every index to be right. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Also, there are like a dozen variables. They are almost NEVER all aligned. In almost every sense pattern you focus on the one thing that isn’t perfect. We get snowstorms in slightly flawed patterns all the time. Years ago I looked at every 5”+ storm at BWI going back to 1950. There is a thread with the results somewhere in here. Very few were 100% perfect. The number one factor was the AO. If we had a -AO we can survive flaws elsewhere. We don’t need every index to be right. 

I'm biased to the seasonal trend of late and how it tears through MR/LR modeling with regards to -AO/NAO.. remember last year? It was later in the year, but the big -NAO/-AO dominated pattern quickly disappeared.. I have a feeling something will overcome it. possibly the central-Atlantic trough. It's either going to snow or it isn't going to snow.. I say low chances but we'll see soon enough

Those waves that occur during -EPO, when the ridge moves over Alaska, are the ones to watch. a bit shorter term. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s the gfs. I posted the EPS 

They seem to be in two different camps. EPS has been running cooler. Today it's raining. Maybe the warmer model will win. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I'm biased to the seasonal trend of late and how it tears through MR/LR modeling with regards to -AO/NAO.. remember last year? It was later in the year, but the big -NAO/-AO dominated pattern quickly disappeared.. I have a feeling something will overcome it. possibly the central-Atlantic trough. It's either going to snow or it isn't going to snow.. I say low chances but we'll see soon enough

That’s a good point. But isn’t that a different argument. There is the “that isn’t a good pattern on the guidance” which is one argument.  Then there is “I don’t think it will actually look that way” which is fair but a different argument. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s a good point. But isn’t that a different argument. There is the “that isn’t a good pattern on the guidance” which is one argument.  Then there is “I don’t think it will actually look that way” which is fair but a different argument. 

We never have negative 500mb. The average high temp at this time of year is low 40s. It will take a lot of High pressure or low level cold to make up the difference. The only time I'm seeing troughs is after storm systems at 288hr. By the way that's the only frame that has a trough. 

I'm also not opposed to frozen precip when EPO runs negative Days 3-7.

[grhqofb5]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

You all know I love baseball, but banter thread plz

I didn’t know that.  Who’s your favorite team? I like the Baltimore franchise.  Also NY Mets.

 

[winter_warlock]

17 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

I didn’t know that.  Who’s your favorite team? I like the Baltimore franchise.  Also NY Mets.

 

Wrong thread lol

[Ji]

Can you guys take this to the teleconnections thread?

[stormtracker]

GFS seems delayed

[Ji]

Can someone create a thread for the storm?

[Ji]

GFS seems delayed

They want the euro to hold their beer

[dailylurker]

Just now, Ji said:

Can someone create a thread for the storm?

I second that. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

They want the euro to hold their beer

Running now

[stormy]

36 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Also, there are like a dozen variables. They are almost NEVER all aligned. In almost every sense pattern you focus on the one thing that isn’t perfect. We get snowstorms in slightly flawed patterns all the time. Years ago I looked at every 5”+ storm at BWI going back to 1950. There is a thread with the results somewhere in here. Very few were 100% perfect. The number one factor was the AO. If we had a -AO we can survive flaws elsewhere. We don’t need every index to be right. 

You are exactly right!!  IMO the AO is the most important winter factor to watch.

Here are 7 reasons why:  Feb. 1958 -2.40,  March 1960 -1.62,  March 1962 -2.84,  January 1966 -3.23,  February 1978 -3.01,  January 1996 -1.20, December 2009 -3.41.