February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Interstate]

Give me the 6z GFS and call it a week 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS.

[Weather Will]

Washington Post article excerpt which is a good reminder:

Consider these rules of thumb for snow forecasts: •    Predictions 10 or more days into the future are almost always unreliable. •    Predictions seven days into the future are generally unreliable. •    Predictions five days into the future are sometimes reliable. •    Predictions three days or less into the future are generally reliable, but not always.

[Ji]

0Z AI shifted south some.

Ai had a big one for Feb 21

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ai had a big one for Feb 21

It did, but it was so far out I figured it wasn't worth mentioning. Model exhaustion. 

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z EURO

 

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO

 

Just keeps getting better and better. 

[Ji]

WB 6Z EURO
 

Seems like the issue is mostly dryness

[aldie 22]

Thursday 

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Seems like the issue is mostly dryness

Is it still snowing at this point because it stops at 144?

[mappy]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Is it still snowing at this point because it stops at 144?

he knows damn well there is more after that panel. why encourage him? 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Is it still snowing at this point because it stops at 144?

It was over at that point on the 0z.

[Ji]

Thursday 

Thursday looking more like rain or zr now

[aldie 22]

5 minutes ago, mappy said:

he knows damn well there is more after that panel. why encourage him? 

Lol I was asking for myself because Will originally had 135 up and his 144 was more

[aldie 22]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Thursday looking more like rain or zr now

No today is Thursday 

[Weather Will]

8 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Is it still snowing at this point because it stops at 144?

 

Just now, aldie 22 said:

Lol I was asking for myself because Will originally had 135 up and his 144 was more

I reposted at 144 to capture the end of the wave.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS.

[psuhoffman]

58 minutes ago, Ji said:

Ai had a big one for Feb 21

That’s mine 

[mitchnick]

6z Euro has the boundary further south at 144hrs vs 0z at 150hrs fwiw.

[psuhoffman]

@Stormchaserchuck1

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

+NAO?

That's mine btw. 

[Terpeast]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

Block is further south and PNA isn’t sky high positive. Much to like. 

And 06z euro big shift south for Tuesday 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

48 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@Stormchaserchuck1

 

Good test to see if the -AO can dominate, there are anomalies in the mid-latitudes I don't really like, slight Pacific ridge east of PNA region, and south-based +NAO, although some of you will say that's not a +NAO. It does actually fall under the area (1 of 2) that is more likely to see a dominant anomaly, and there is a slight +temp signal in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in that composite. This is why I think oncoming storms may trend warmer than snow.. is that right after a front passes? It seems to be a ridge/trough kind of pattern.   Give me a +PNA/-NAO over that any day. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 hour ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z EURO

 

Oh wow nice run, we might snag this one yet!!!

[TSSN+]

46 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro has the boundary further south at 144hrs vs 0z at 150hrs fwiw.

Good keep it down there 

[Ji]

That’s mine 

You deserve it

[brooklynwx99]

42 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Good test to see if the -AO can dominate, there are anomalies in the mid-latitudes I don't really like, slight Pacific ridge east of PNA region, and south-based +NAO, although some of you will say that's not a +NAO. It does actually fall under the area (1 of 2) that is more likely to see a dominant anomaly, and there is a slight +temp signal in the Mid-Atlantic and Southeast in that composite. This is why I think oncoming storms may trend warmer than snow.. is that right after a front passes? It seems to be a ridge/trough kind of pattern.   Give me a +PNA/-NAO over that any day. 

excuse me, you said that's a +NAO? in what world is this a +NAO

[Stormchaserchuck1]

11 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

excuse me, you said that's a +NAO? in what world is this a +NAO

Maybe it's a -NAO. That central-Atlantic ridge at -250dm is almost the same strength as the block over Greenland.. if that has a stronger anomaly, I'm going to say that it's a dominant pattern, but right now it's probably barely -nao on the eps. 

[mitchnick]

6z AI very similar to 0z but maybe a touch more precip to the north of 0z.

It then has a light event Wednesday night into Thursday. 

Then Tuesday  2/17 has a moderate event.

Thursday 2/20-21 has a stronger storm with initial temp issues. That can and will change.

P.s. I have not mentioned any rain events. 

[Chris78]

10 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

excuse me, you said that's a +NAO? in what world is this a +NAO

Chuck world