ravensrule Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I'll holla if something jumps out. You’re a good man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 58 minutes ago, stormtracker said: At some point, we're all going to have to collective accept that our most realistic scenario is a moderate hit. TIme to set your expectations in check. When is it going to be our turn? Why can Louisiana score but we can’t? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 euro begins with light snow early on Saturday and mixed precip throughout the day. Much different from GFS 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Pretty similar to 12z 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 6 Author Share Posted February 6 Well...on to 6z. May the trends be in our favor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherkyle Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 bleh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Pretty similar to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, weatherkyle said: bleh It’s beautiful. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherkyle Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 1 minute ago, Ji said: looks like 4" for you once you subtract out the snow we're getting tonight and this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherkyle Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 minutes ago, ravensrule said: It’s beautiful. verbatim, but I wouldn't love this run if I was in baltimore. I'd rather have it further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 12 minutes ago, weatherkyle said: verbatim, but I wouldn't love this run if I was in baltimore. I'd rather have it further south. Thanks Kyle 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 11 minutes ago, weatherkyle said: verbatim, but I wouldn't love this run if I was in baltimore. I'd rather have it further south. I’m NW of Baltimore, but i agree i would love everything pushed 50 miles South. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Don’t feel like posting the map but eps is south enough where everyone is happy. Tuesday/Wednesday 24 hour mean is 4-5” for pretty much everyone, and more importantly the bullseye isn’t in central PA. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Meh10” would be meh for you between now and the 15th with the best chance for a big dog being the following week and beyond? 10” would be a fantastic appetizer for most leading into a more favorable pattern for a MECS+ afterward. The bar is crazy in here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 2 hours ago, ravensrule said: I’m NW of Baltimore, but i agree i would love everything pushed 50 miles South. I thought you were in the Dundalk area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 3 hours ago, T. August said: Don’t feel like posting the map but eps is south enough where everyone is happy. Tuesday/Wednesday 24 hour mean is 4-5” for pretty much everyone, and more importantly the bullseye isn’t in central PA. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 NWS Sterling for next week: Beyond Sunday, the pattern turns active once again. During the early to mid week time period, there`s reasonable confidence surrounding the placement of larger scale features, but higher levels of uncertainty with respect to the smaller scale details, which of course will be critical in determining the sensible weather conditions that we ultimately experience. During that time period model guidance is in good agreement that a relatively persistent pattern will develop on the synoptic scale, with strong upper ridging over the Eastern Pacific/Alaska and deep troughing downstream over central and eastern Canada. At jet level, a strong jet extending across much of the Pacific will split into two streams, with one riding up and over the Alaskan Ridge, and another undercutting the ridge, and then progressing eastward toward southern California, and eventually east to northeastward across the CONUS. Subtle disturbances originating in both the northern and southern streams will move eastward through the waveguide, moving atop a sharp north-south temperature gradient in place across much of the CONUS, with each disturbance providing a chance for some warm advection driven precipitation. With various rather subtle disturbances originating in both the northern and southern stream impacting the forecast, confidence in the smaller scale details remains low. Compared to yesterday, chances for snow on Monday have trended downward, but there`s still a low-end threat showing up in ensembles from central Virginia to southern Maryland. The greatest chance for a more substantial wintry precipitation event still looks to be during the day Tuesday, as a disturbance currently in the southern stream over the central Pacific reaches the Southern California coast Monday and then rapidly accelerates east-northeastward across the CONUS. Snow and/or ice look to be the most likely precipitation types with this system, with locations further north having greater chances to see all snow, and locations further south having greater chances for mixing with sleet and freezing rain. A changeover to all rain may even be possible across southern portions of the forecast area. Latest incoming guidance shows relatively high probabilities (greater than 50 percent) for a plowable snow across much of the forecast area (especially along/north of I-66/US-50), but there`s plenty of time for northward or southward shifts in guidance to change the outlook. We will continue to monitor this system over the upcoming days. Guidance begins to diverge further by Wednesday. Some models (such as the 00z Canadian) continue the wintry precipitation through Wednesday, while most others bring the precipitation to an end, leading to dry conditions. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Maybe 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 0Z AI shifted south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Oz Ukie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 6z gfs, moderate snow @129 through nova, md/pa light snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Continuing through 135, moderate snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Snowing through 141, precip moving out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 8+ region wide, not bad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Give me the 6z GFS and call it a week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 WB 6Z GFS. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 Washington Post article excerpt which is a good reminder: Consider these rules of thumb for snow forecasts: • Predictions 10 or more days into the future are almost always unreliable. • Predictions seven days into the future are generally unreliable. • Predictions five days into the future are sometimes reliable. • Predictions three days or less into the future are generally reliable, but not always. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 0Z AI shifted south some.Ai had a big one for Feb 21 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 13 minutes ago, Ji said: Ai had a big one for Feb 21 It did, but it was so far out I figured it wasn't worth mentioning. Model exhaustion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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