February Medium/Long Range Thread

[NorthArlington101]

Really tough to separate out the snow means… here is Pt. 1 and Pt. 2, though there is some Thursday snow happening here. Regardless - pushed south. 
 

 

[stormtracker]

Just gonna sit back and not do pbp for euro.  We'll just go look at the snow maps anyway.  I guess if something pops out, I'll holla

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Just gonna sit back and not do pbp for euro.  We'll just go look at the snow maps anyway.  I guess if something pops out, I'll holla

You’re cold. Don’t do us dirty like that. I slept 3 hours last night and i waited up to hear your delicious pbp. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, ravensrule said:

You’re cold. Don’t do us dirty like that. I slept 3 hours last night and i waited up to hear your delicious pbp. 

I'll holla if something jumps out.  

[Ji]

alright--euro shows Freezing rain for tonight

[ravensrule]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I'll holla if something jumps out.  

You’re a good man. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

58 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

At some point, we're all going to have to collective accept that our most realistic scenario is a moderate hit.   TIme to set your expectations in check.  

When is it going to be our turn? Why can Louisiana score but we can’t?

[Ji]

euro begins with light snow early on Saturday and mixed precip throughout the day. Much different from GFS

[NorthArlington101]

Pretty similar to 12z

[stormtracker]

Well...on to 6z.  May the trends be in our favor

[weatherkyle]

bleh

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Pretty similar to 12z

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, weatherkyle said:

bleh

It’s beautiful. 

[weatherkyle]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

looks like 4" for you once you subtract out the snow we're getting tonight and this weekend. 

[weatherkyle]

2 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

It’s beautiful. 

verbatim, but I wouldn't love this run if I was in baltimore.  I'd rather have it further south.

[Ji]

[T. August]

12 minutes ago, weatherkyle said:

verbatim, but I wouldn't love this run if I was in baltimore.  I'd rather have it further south.

Thanks Kyle

[ravensrule]

11 minutes ago, weatherkyle said:

verbatim, but I wouldn't love this run if I was in baltimore.  I'd rather have it further south.

I’m NW of Baltimore, but i agree i would love everything pushed 50 miles South. 

[T. August]

Don’t feel like posting the map but eps is south enough where everyone is happy. Tuesday/Wednesday 24 hour mean is 4-5” for pretty much everyone, and more importantly the bullseye isn’t in central PA.

[jayyy]

Meh

10” would be meh for you between now and the 15th with the best chance for a big dog being the following week and beyond? 10” would be a fantastic appetizer for most leading into a more favorable pattern for a MECS+ afterward. The bar is crazy in here lol

[Interstate]

2 hours ago, ravensrule said:

I’m NW of Baltimore, but i agree i would love everything pushed 50 miles South. 

I thought you were in the Dundalk area

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, T. August said:

Don’t feel like posting the map but eps is south enough where everyone is happy. Tuesday/Wednesday 24 hour mean is 4-5” for pretty much everyone, and more importantly the bullseye isn’t in central PA.

[Weather Will]

NWS Sterling for next week:

Beyond Sunday, the pattern turns active once again. During the early
to mid week time period, there`s reasonable confidence surrounding
the placement of larger scale features, but higher levels of
uncertainty with respect to the smaller scale details, which of
course will be critical in determining the sensible weather
conditions that we ultimately experience.

During that time period model guidance is in good agreement that a
relatively persistent pattern will develop on the synoptic scale,
with strong upper ridging over the Eastern Pacific/Alaska and deep
troughing downstream over central and eastern Canada. At jet level,
a strong jet extending across much of the Pacific will split into
two streams, with one riding up and over the Alaskan Ridge, and
another undercutting the ridge, and then progressing eastward toward
southern California, and eventually east to northeastward across the
CONUS. Subtle disturbances originating in both the northern and
southern streams will move eastward through the waveguide, moving
atop a sharp north-south temperature gradient in place across much
of the CONUS, with each disturbance providing a chance for some warm
advection driven precipitation. With various rather subtle
disturbances originating in both the northern and southern stream
impacting the forecast, confidence in the smaller scale details
remains low.

Compared to yesterday, chances for snow on Monday have trended
downward, but there`s still a low-end threat showing up in ensembles
from central Virginia to southern Maryland.

The greatest chance for a more substantial wintry precipitation
event still looks to be during the day Tuesday, as a disturbance
currently in the southern stream over the central Pacific reaches
the Southern California coast Monday and then rapidly accelerates
east-northeastward across the CONUS. Snow and/or ice look to be the
most likely precipitation types with this system, with locations
further north having greater chances to see all snow, and locations
further south having greater chances for mixing with sleet and
freezing rain. A changeover to all rain may even be possible across
southern portions of the forecast area. Latest incoming guidance
shows relatively high probabilities (greater than 50 percent) for a
plowable snow across much of the forecast area (especially
along/north of I-66/US-50), but there`s plenty of time for northward
or southward shifts in guidance to change the outlook. We will
continue to monitor this system over the upcoming days.

Guidance begins to diverge further by Wednesday. Some models (such
as the 00z Canadian) continue the wintry precipitation through
Wednesday, while most others bring the precipitation to an end,
leading to dry conditions.

[CAPE]

Maybe

[mitchnick]

0Z AI shifted south some.

[mitchnick]

Oz Ukie

[Solution Man]

6z gfs, moderate snow @129 through nova, md/pa light snow

[Solution Man]

Continuing through 135, moderate snow

[Solution Man]

Snowing through 141, precip moving out

[Solution Man]

8+ region wide, not bad