February Medium/Long Range Thread

[stormtracker]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Another wave nipping at this one’s heels

Losing thermals pretty fast tho

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Another wave nipping at this one’s heels

Coming around to rain on our parade

[Maestrobjwa]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I wanna be annoyed at being fringed with 7" and not 12 but...seeing as I haven't measured that much in years I'd take it, lol (and the fact that this is Day 6 with us on the boundary)

[weatherkyle]

1 minute ago, weatherkyle said:

This is subtracting out the non-snow from tonight

 

Just now, ravensrule said:

I’m teasing. Even if this is the final outcome I would be tickled pink. 

Actually only Randy and I would be tickled pink.  Looks like you're tickled blue

[Heisy]

Losing thermals pretty fast tho

It’s gonna be close, the HP still hanging around at least


.

[ravensrule]

Just now, weatherkyle said:

 

Actually only Randy and I would be tickled pink.  Looks like you're tickled blue

Lol, light blue. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

It’s gonna be close, the HP still hanging around at least


.

Dead ratter.  Not even close (to snow). cold is "close"

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Heisy said:

It’s gonna be close, the HP still hanging around at least.

It could end up colder but it's for sure rain as is. 33 degree rain the day after 12" of snow would be a tough pill to swallow but I'm willing to do it... assuming I get the 12" snow

[Terpeast]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Coming around to rain on our parade

I pay less attention to thermals beyond 6-7 days. If the first wave works out, it’ll lay down snow cover and help us with thermals

[stormtracker]

Rain almost wall to wall

[weatherkyle]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Starts like 10am ish tuesday?  to Wed morning before sunrise?

I'd say the end looks more like midnight-ish with very light stuff after that

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

I pay less attention to thermals beyond 6-7 days. If the first wave works out, it’ll lay down snow cover and help us with thermals

850s aren't too far off for the first half of the storm at least. Not DOA but work to do

[Solution Man]

Thinking that follow up slug will be at least mixy and not just rain., I was talking the next round after the snow.

[stormtracker]

Again, just saying what the model has verbatim.  Of course we shouldn't be sweating any thermals or anything this far out

[stormtracker]

Just now, Solution Man said:

Thinking that follow up slug will be at least mixy and not just rain.

[NorthArlington101]

CMC

[Terpeast]

Canadian starts similar to gfs, but then splits the wave into two and we get some light snow on front end. Second wave more amped

[T. August]

Canadian is cooking something up at 132 but not sure we’re gonna like the dish

edit: ninja’d

[Scraff]

4 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Barely 6”, do you think that is enough to please someone?. 

So many things I want to say…

[Heisy]

Dead ratter.  Not even close (to snow). cold is "close"

Yea I was wrong, woops…


.

[ravensrule]

Lol @NorthArlington101is like days ahead of you guys. 

[stormtracker]

At some point, we're all going to have to collective accept that our most realistic scenario is a moderate hit.   TIme to set your expectations in check.  

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

So many things I want to say…

Please control yourself. As you know I’m the master of self control. 

[T. August]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Lol @NorthArlington101is like days ahead of you guys. 

He cheated and looked at the snow maps

[Terpeast]

CMC placement of slp and highs look great. Might be snowier than its ptype would have us believe. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

At some point, we're all going to have to collective accept that our most realistic scenario is a moderate hit.   TIme to set your expectations in check.  

I would be thrilled with 6-8”. Let’s hope that’s what we get. We aren’t getting the 18-20” we saw yesterday. 

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, T. August said:

He cheated and looked at the snow maps

yeah I just check every map - sometimes the snow/precip/temp maps are like days ahead and you can make well-educated guesses. Won't give away all my secrets though... this is the only way I add value. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

yeah I just check every map - sometimes the snow/precip/temp maps are like days ahead and you can make well-educated guesses. Won't give away all my secrets though... this is the only way I add value

It’s greatly appreciated. I’m too cheap to pay so I rely on you. 

[weatherkyle]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

CMC placement of slp and highs look great. Might be snowier than its ptype would have us believe. 

It's strung out and ugly so that's good.  It's a good long time before we flip, but there just isnt a ton of precip before that point

[LordBaltimore]

The 4-10" on 1/6 was noteworthy because of the 3+ weeks it stuck around. Another 4-10" immediately followed by rain is like being served takis in a bag after lobster