February Medium/Long Range Thread

[DarkSharkWX]

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Total 

[psuhoffman]

10 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

The monthly composites page is down, or I would show you I'm referring to the -PNA, it's anomaly from Feb-March 2018-2024 has been record breaking by like 150%. Even if we neutralize that this year.. we need cold 500mb to get snow going into March. Actually in the last 8 years... last January we had snow in +PNA/-NAO, this early Jan we got snow in +PNA/-NAO.. when the indexes have been super favorable is the only time we're getting >4". Otherwise it's been a near shutout. I'll post the Feb 2018-2024 map when the CDC page comes back online.  It seems like after our coldest day of the year, Jan 27th, something flips a switch and we amplify -PNA... this year it might be closer to neutral, but I don't think we're going to reverse the pattern anytime soon. 

I just don’t expect that pattern to last forever. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

8 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I just don’t expect that pattern to last forever. 

I agree but we have like a +0.25 correlation tendency right now. 

[Ji]

I agree but we have like a +0.25 correlation tendency right now. 

Can you guys take this to the long range thread

[psuhoffman]

22 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said:

Yeah I dont care if it is upper air/ long wave/ ensemble mean .. I just dont take anything serious outside of 180 hours... I just dont have the knowledge to take what the computer model is spitting out seriously.  I am sure @psuhoffman does, so I will trust him.  My kids watch a lot of weather youtube and there are guys who will literally step through every frame of the CFS out to six weeks and talk about it as if it is a forecast. Its a real disservice and not the intended use of those models.

 

I can’t tell when a model at day 20 is right or not. But this call was made before any model showed anything. It was based on pattern recognition, analogs and timing the cycles we’ve been in. The fact guidance came around to that only adds some confidence. But I wouldn’t base a long range forecast just on what models show that far out. 

[mitchnick]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Can you guys take this to the long range thread

This IS the long range thread. Lol 

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I agree but we have like a +0.25 correlation tendency right now. 

Sometimes I rely on persistence. But my seasonal forecast just got blown up by relying on that too much. I’m guessing the trend of trends not holding continues this season.  I just have a feeling the pacific which has been driving much of this is shifting. We will see soon who is more correct. 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Sometimes I rely on persistence. But my seasonal forecast just got blown up by relying on that too much. I’m guessing the trend of trends not holding continues this season.  I just have a feeling the pacific which has been driving much of this is shifting. We will see soon who is more correct. 

CPC got it wrong too.. they usually do good. I think all seasonal models had a SE ridge. 

[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, Ji said:

Can you guys take this to the long range thread

I’m sorry you’re right the thread was better when you were trying to cause mass hysteria because the 170 hour clown maps keep shifting around every 6 hours. 

[winter_warlock]

 Funny but true 

[stormtracker]

Icon didn't look too bad

[Maestrobjwa]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

Can you guys take this to the long range thread

I wouldn't if I were you, Iol

[stormtracker]

Well...good luck yall...almost go time

[SnowGolfBro]

5 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well...good luck yall...almost go time

I just want to tell you, good luck. And we’re all counting on you.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, SnowGolfBro said:

I just want to tell you, good luck. And we’re all counting on you.

[NorthArlington101]

25 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Icon didn't look too bad

[stormtracker]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

I'm buying that at this point (though temps are borderline at surface, tbh). My bar right now is 2". 

[Scraff]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Thank god the GFS is running. 

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

That looks awful. 

[Ji]

Icon didn't look too bad

If you hate weather

[stormtracker]

So far, part 1 is souther and drier

[stormtracker]

precip out west is notable drier. but that's just part 1...let's see what part 2 does

[stormtracker]

It's just drier everywhere so far vs 18z

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's just drier everywhere so far vs 18z

im at 129 - withholding judgement. Can't tell if it's basically noise or not really... may just be slower

[NorthArlington101]

Snowing at 135 - mod central VA

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Snowing at 135 - mod central VA

struggling to make much push north of DC but not a bad slug of moisture. Slower/different evolution

[stormtracker]

It's way slower so far 18z it was half way going...now the big stuff hasn't even arrived at the same time

[stormtracker]

Ok, got better at 144...moderate snow across the area