NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, CAPE said: I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well. this is the saddest post I've seen all day 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: It's why we really need to score early to mid next week because that's when we have the best High pressure to our north and cold air feeding south. Looks like the SER ruins it for us after those initial waves until maybe the longer term guidance kicks in with a tamer SER. But there's always a risk that fails too like modeling from several days ago. Oh the life of a weenie. Even that period is tricky. Guidance is still all over the place. Timing of shortwave energy up north/associated confluence and exact location and strength of HP at the surface are yet to be determined, and pretty much mean everything wrt p-type for our region. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: this is the saddest post I've seen all day This sure as hell has been an hour. Just not a happy one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: this is the saddest post I've seen all day I have the knack. I am an engineer. I am pragmatic and cold. Utter social ineptitude. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I have the knack. I am an engineer. I am pragmatic and cold. Utter social ineptitude.I actually find you generally optimistic 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Ji said: I actually find you generally optimistic That was a Dilbert reference lol. Love that one. I like to think I am pretty level headed with my posts. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 GEFS took a nudge south - better cushion and a little snowier for most. Still a drool-worthy 24hr panel, even if it was better 24 hours ago 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GEFS took a nudge south - better cushion and a little snowier for most. Still a drool-worthy 24hr panel, even if it was better 24 hours ago That looks damn good. Nothing wrong with that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 23 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: See that pressure pattern of -500mb heights south of Greenland/Iceland vs +Heights off of Africa.. that's +nao. What you are looking at is -AO. When the negative 500mb moves south of New Foundland latitude.. that's -NAO, but north of that is +NAO. We know how the nao is numerically calculated but most don’t functionally do it that way. Also the AO is even more correlated to snow than the nao so ok it’s a -AO. With regards to snow chances whats your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: We know how the nao is numerically calculated but most don’t functionally do it that way. Also the AO is even more correlated to snow than the nao so ok it’s a -AO. With regards to snow chances whats your point? AO is too far away. A neg 500mb NE of New Foundland is the reason why our H5 never goes negative for the threat(s).. I said earlier +NAO/-EPO is a big ice storm pattern, especially mid-Winter. I just think it's more of a setup for ice, although we may do a few inches on the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 29 minutes ago, CAPE said: I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well. I'd say it's not ideal for a MECS+ MA snow, or even an all snow high-end SECS. But we can still snow in this because there will be plenty of cold air just to our north and all it takes is a 50-100 mile shift south in the boundary for most of the forum to cash in. And this pattern is about to take several shots at us, and one of them is bound to hit us. I'm thinking 3-6" + mix will be a win for most of us. PA north is more likely to stay all snow and get a double-digit storm. We'll see how the polar domain trends on the ensembles because EPS shifted much colder after the 14th. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 @Stormchaserchuck1 sorry of that came off harsh, didn’t mean it to be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: @Stormchaserchuck1 sorry of that came off harsh, didn’t mean it to be. No problem.. you're probably the only one who does a real discussion. Active precip jet is a bit atypical for a Weak Nina, huh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: snow high-end SECS. SECS Pro Max Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: AO is too far away. A neg 500mb NE of New Foundland is the reason why our H5 never goes negative for the threat(s).. I said earlier +NAO/-EPO is a big ice storm pattern, especially mid-Winter. I just think it's more of a setup for ice, although we may do a few inches on the front end. When you looked at +NAO did you also make sure to only use examples where the AO is negative with a block over top the nao? This is delicate because I don’t totally disagree with you. I’m also skeptical. But that -AO gives this more of a chance than if it was a more typical +nao in conjunction with a +AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I'd say it's not ideal for a MECS+ MA snow, or even an all snow high-end SECS. But we can still snow in this because there will be plenty of cold air just to our north and all it takes is a 50-100 mile shift south in the boundary for most of the forum to cash in. And this pattern is about to take several shots at us, and one of them is bound to hit us. I'm thinking 3-6" + mix will be a win for most of us. PA north is more likely to stay all snow and get a double-digit storm. We'll see how the polar domain trends on the ensembles because EPS shifted much colder after the 14th. Completely agree with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: No problem.. you're probably the only one who does a real discussion. Active precip jet is a bit atypical for a Weak Nina, huh? Nothing about this winter has been typical. And the last two ninos weren’t typical Nino. Enso hasn’t meant as much lately. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 MECS window 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: When you looked at +NAO did you also make sure to only use examples where the AO is negative with a block over top the nao? This is delicate because I don’t totally disagree with you. I’m also skeptical. But that -AO gives this more of a chance than if it was a more typical +nao in conjunction with a +AO. Back in the day, I made a daily index of all the strongest N. Hemisphere 500mb areas: 1. south NAO (north-central Atlantic) 2. North NAO- Greenland. 3. AO (arctic circle, although this one was rare), 4. EPO. 5. Gulf of Alaska. 6. PNA (Aleutian Islands). 7. WPO Bering Strait. I found that [1] the south-NAO had +temperature correlation in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, and neutral to positive 500mb heights. AO was negative temps and heights, but moreso north, so a combination of those two is close to neutral for the Mid Atlantic.. average high temperature now is 40, so that's saying low 30s is probably the best case scenario. We know how those borderline events, with +NAO (south-based) or more recently -pna, we know how they trend from the medium to short range when a N. Hemisphere major index area is in a constant. They don't trend toward more snow... I'm a believer of the AO, but it's a short wavelength pattern, where we have some unfavorable things stacked directly underneath. Pacific isn't bad though, and it's mid Winter, when we average upper 10s to 20s snowfall/year.. so maybe we can squeeze in some snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 37 minutes ago, CAPE said: I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well. You can get away with telling the truth on this blog. I cannot because super weenies will try to put me down. No person and no model knows what is going to happen next week or 2 weeks from now. Volatility is tremendous. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: MECS window Was excited until I saw hr456 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18z euro good for maybe a few inches on the front, then we most likely lose thermals. edit: obviously it stops at 144, so just speculation. It might end up closer to 4ish inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Was excited until I saw hr456 lol. Sorry. It is what it is. But I’ve been riding the end of Feb or early March as a period to watch for a while and I see no reason to back down now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 To be a -NAO or not be a -NAO. Call it what the hell you want but that's a hell of a HL block. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Kinda hard to tell what the 18z Euro is gonna do...but thermals are precarious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: Back in the day, I made a daily index of all the strongest N. Hemisphere 500mb areas: 1. south NAO (north-central Atlantic) 2. North NAO- Greenland. 3. AO (arctic circle, although this one was rare), 4. EPO. 5. Gulf of Alaska. 6. PNA (Aleutian Islands). 7. WPO Bering Strait. I found that [1] the south-NAO had +temperature correlation in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast, and neutral to positive 500mb heights. AO was negative temps and heights, but moreso north, so a combination of those two is close to neutral for the Mid Atlantic.. average high temperature now is 40, so that's saying low 30s is probably the best case scenario. We know how those borderline events, with +NAO (south-based) or more recently -pna, we know how they trend from the medium to short range when a N. Hemisphere major index area is in a constant. They don't trend toward more snow... I'm a believer of the AO, but it's a short wavelength pattern, where we have some unfavorable things stacked directly underneath. Thanks for the info. I’d be curious to see what this rare combo of that extreme a -AO block encroaching into the north nao domain over top a south +nao would do. I guess we’re about to find out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Kinda hard to tell what the 18z Euro is gonna do...but thermals are precarious Not the best look up top at the surface. Not horrible, but with HP off the NE coast its hard to imagine we don't mix or go to rain beyond the end of that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Kinda hard to tell what the 18z Euro is gonna do...but thermals are precarious Slightly colder press, better CAD but slightly more amplified wave. Likely a wash and similar to 12z in the end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not the best look up top at the surface. Not horrible, but with HP off the NE coast its hard to imagine we don't mix or go to rain beyond the end of that run. You're on a mission...rough week at work? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Not the best look up top at the surface. Not horrible, but with HP off the NE coast its hard to imagine we don't mix or go to rain beyond the end of that run. South of PA definitely mixes but it’s not the worst look. Yea there is a weakness in the high where we don’t want it but still generally higher pressure all across to our north. If we can get the pressure directly over us about 5mb higher we have a chance. This isn’t that far from a snowier outcome imo. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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