February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Solution Man]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

encompasses both events - nothing from Saturday

Maybe something behind this

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

encompasses both events - nothing from Saturday

Booyah.  I'd lock this up and call it a day RIGHT NOW.

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

A lot to like about the fact that a 1035-1040 High is to the NW of the Tuesday wave. I'm wondering if the Sun-Mon wave missing us to the south is actually helping us by laying down the track for the Tuesday storm.

I'm glad my amateur thinking was in line with an expert  When I saw that first wave be that weak I kinda figured the second one would be less disrupted.

So back to the weenie rule of rooting for one wave to fail so the next one is even better? 

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Booyah.  I'd lock this up and call it a day RIGHT NOW.

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Maybe something behind this

It's trying, but I think it's ultimately gonna be shunted south.  RIC looks like Rain for that one.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Maybe something behind this

Yep. Just gunna say 

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Booyah.  I'd lock this up and call it a day RIGHT NOW.

In a Nina February? Absolutely.

[stormtracker]

It's shunted but we get some light snow from the follow up

[IronTy]

GFS seems to be homing in.  One more run to split the diff BTN the 12Z and 18Z and I can lock it in. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

Just now, Terpeast said:

A lot to like about the fact that a 1035-1040 High is to the NW of the Tuesday wave. I'm wondering if the Sun-Mon wave missing us to the south is actually helping us by laying down the track for the Tuesday storm.

I was actually just thinking the same thing about the Sun-Mon wave.  Is the fact that it's somewhat weaker and farther south actually allow the Tuesday wave to grow more, gain more moisture, etc.?  While also being colder overall.  It seems as if the better solutions lately have focused more on the 11th-12th wave, oscillating on how strong it is, how far north/south, where the snow/ice line is.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's shunted but we get some light snow from the follow up

Like a C-1"er, more north. Everyone else gets some extra sleet/ice.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's shunted but we get some light snow from the follow up

More energy out around Colorado. 

[stormtracker]

Now a third wave approaching

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Like a C-1"er, more north. Everyone else gets some extra sleet/ice.

Actually a little better 

[weatherkyle]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

no other model shows monday snow for us--so i am not sure why we losing panties

I'm not sure it's good for us anyway.  The real storm is much better and colder if the lead wave is suppressed

[mitchnick]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Now a third wave approaching

That's the Colorado energy. 

[stormtracker]

Lost the upper thermals....surface about to fold on this third wave

[stormtracker]

It's close enough to be interesting.  Verbatim looks like ice north and west of the fall line

[winter_warlock]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

encompasses both events - nothing from Saturday

Were back baby!!!

[snowmagnet]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Were back baby!!!

Phew. It’s been a stressful day on the page. This would have made everyone happy if we hadn’t been seeing all the crazy ensemble runs for at least 5 days. Total roller coaster ride. 

[Terpeast]

3rd wave after the 13th may look like ice now verbatim on the GFS, but 2 HPs of ~1040 one to the NW and one to the NE of us, and a SLP in northern Alabama - if it wasn't showing ptypes, I would think snow.

[Paleocene]

4th wave after the 3rd wave? Lol, weenie run here.

[MDScienceTeacher]

The fact that this accounts for the first 7 inches in Baltimore completely calls the entire TT snow map calculation in to question.

[mitchnick]

We need that SER to calm down or it's mix precip to rain for us and snows in central PA north time after time.

[CAPE]

HH clown map through mid month

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, CAPE said:

He is kind of in the same boat as RevWarReenactor. Misses out/gets fringed on a lot of scrapers/sliders, and struggles with the marginal events where it snows just to the NW. 

that’s kinda what I thought. I lived in southwest NJ for 13 years. I’m familiar with the climo there. It SUCKS!!!  

[RVAman]

Richmond sucks. 

[ravensrule]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

HH clown map through mid month

That’s totally acceptable, unless you’re Ji. 

[Ji]

HH clown map through mid month

I guess that’s not bad for the pre pattern change

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

We need that SER to calm down or it's mix precip to rain for us and snows in central PA north time after time.

I mentioned this early this morning. Not ideal for MA snow. And not the pattern we were seeing advertised several days ago. Honestly surprised we are seeing such snowy solutions on op and ens guidance. Caution to the weenies who don't take failure well.