February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

And we’re off. 18z has begun.  New slate people!

i need to see a lot of blue even if its not going to happen

[Ji]

18z GFS shows freezing rain for tonight

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd I think the trough ends up centered more in the east for the end of February. The issue is where you live no pattern makes it super likely to get a big snow. You know your climo. Even the best patterns fail more often than not. That’s true even here but especially on the coastal plain. I’d also bet more of your huge snows had more epo/pna help. Here that’s a cold dry look a -epo/ao/nao/+pna. But for you that’s probably more common for a big snow. But honestly not sure, what are the biggest snows for your area?  Do you get in on the coastal scrapers or the 95 storms more?   Or are you stuck in between where you get some from both?  

He is kind of in the same boat as RevWarReenactor. Misses out/gets fringed on a lot of scrapers/sliders, and struggles with the marginal events where it snows just to the NW. 

[ravensrule]

12 minutes ago, Ji said:

i need to see a lot of blue even if its not going to happen

Just look down. 

[Ji]

how did we miss thiss

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025020518&fh=66

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Ji said:

how did we miss thiss

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025020518&fh=66

we've got storm threads for tonight and Saturday if you back out of this thread and click them

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

how did we miss thiss

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus&region=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025020518&fh=66

It's not real, it's TT crappy algo's

[stormtracker]

GFS is dry and slides the first slug south. but..let's wait.  But it's markedly drier

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

GFS is dry and slides the first slug south. but..let's wait

Don't know if that's good for us or bad lol

[stormtracker]

Just ugly for the first wave...dry and nothing north of DC and even the precip to DC is minuscule 

[Weather Junkie]

Dry.  South.  I’m in the “bad for us” camp.

[NorthArlington101]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Just ugly for the first wave...dry and nothing north of DC and even the precip to DC is minuscule 

looks like 4-6" lynchburg to RIC

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

looks like 4-6" lynchburg to RIC

Yeah, should have mentioned that for those guys.  My bad RIC crew!

[NorthArlington101]

2nd wave won't have a juice problem... I'm interested but make no promises

[mitchnick]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

2nd wave won't have a juice problem... I'm interested but make no promises

Men are all alike.

[stormtracker]

I will say this...the orientation out west appears better and the precip is further north. Snowing at 12 Tuesday

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, should have mentioned that for those guys.  My bad RIC crew!

no other model shows monday snow for us--so i am not sure why we losing panties

[NorthArlington101]

light snow entering DCA at 138

[stormtracker]

It's going to be a better run

[NorthArlington101]

mod at 141 - rippage on the doorstep

[stormtracker]

Moderate snow 1pm Tuesday 144 hours

[T. August]

say it

[stormtracker]

  Temps no issues...mod to heavy at 147

[NorthArlington101]

widespread WSW - SECSy

[stormtracker]

MUCH better.  Should calm some folks down

[stormtracker]

It's snow wall to wall for EZF north.  RIC  Flirts with and mixes

[HighStakes]

Such a gut wrenching and exhausting sick hobby.

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's snow wall to wall for EZF north.  RIC  Flirts with and mixes

encompasses both events - nothing from Saturday

[Terpeast]

A lot to like about the fact that a 1035-1040 High is to the NW of the Tuesday wave. I'm wondering if the Sun-Mon wave missing us to the south is actually helping us by laying down the track for the Tuesday storm.

[stormtracker]

Not gonna steal north's thunder like he's stealing mine!  I'll let him give the accumulations stuff.  But it's good.  Mitch might be meh tho