February Medium/Long Range Thread

[MDScienceTeacher]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I hear ya. Know who to listen to. Several people were quick to point out this is not a 2016 type setup and the similarities on the snow maps were superficial 

What was similar was the run to run consistency and the global model agreement.  Even if all of the ingredients werent actually on the table, the event certainly seemed to be one of those that lock in early and never waiver.  Lets just hope this is the mid range slippage and things get back on track shortly.

[ravensrule]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Can't quite capture the full precip of the 12z AIFS but it all looks like snow. Will check the new fancy Ptype maps soon.

I would kiss you. 

[clskinsfan]

10 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

on other news this is very very nice

It is. I would like to see the NAO and vortex a little further south. Looks like a great pattern for the NE to me. 

[Mikeymac5306]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I would kiss you. 

 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Mikeymac5306 said:

 

Legit lol.

Friend and I quote this at least twice a year

[DarkSharkWX]

2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

It is. I would like to see the NAO and vortex a little further south. Looks like a great pattern for the NE to me. 

it made those improvements today! that pattern would more than work for us verbatim especially for the typically favored areas

you don't have an uber -EPO like last time suppressing everything to the south and since theres a weak STJ you'd be able to get weaker boundary waves to hit you 

[DarkSharkWX]

 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, DarkSharkWX said:

 

lol this model is gonna do it again to me, string me along…

[DarkSharkWX]

lol aifs actually rebounded some more cold this run 

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

 

How did it ultimately miss on the January storm too far south and too cold?

[DarkSharkWX]

Just now, aldie 22 said:

How did it ultimately miss on the January storm too far south and too cold?

to be fair it honestly did a really good job on H500 which is where its highest scores are in, its not meant to be used for mesoscale features

the mesos didn't give us good guidance that day so for me thats another AIFS W

[DarkSharkWX]

folks coming on aifs

[DarkSharkWX]

holddddd

[Interstate]

7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

 

What does this look like up to H168

[WesternFringe]

7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

 

Does this algorithm count sleet as snow like the GFS on TT does?

[Interstate]

Just now, DarkSharkWX said:

holddddd

I never like a H position like that with a return flow.

[psuhoffman]

31 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

on other news this is very very nice

Looks happy 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

I never like a H position like that with a return flow.

There's a High up to the NNW moving east.

[mitchnick]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

Looks happy 

The official Clown map.

[NorthArlington101]

can anyone else not see the darkshark posts?

anyway - AI is like 10-12" for most of us. Mix line is around Fredricksburg. Looks kinda classic Miller A

[mitchnick]

That's 3 great runs in a row on the AI with improvements on each one. I call that significant. 

[Quasievil]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

Since when did we start trying to lock in details on progressive waves 150 hours out?  This is nuts. Some are acting like these storms are 24 hours out having an emotional reaction to every run.  Just because we had a few days with guidance spitting our crazy snow totals doesn’t chance how far out it is or make the guidance more accurate at those ranges. 

Folks just haven't quite learned the lesson that many of us are forced to that fantasy snow is great but until it's day 3/4, you can't trust anything. Even the ensembles. Still showing snow next week so awesome.

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

can anyone else not see the darkshark posts?

anyway - AI is like 10-12" for most of us. Mix line is around Fredricksburg. Looks kinda classic Miller A

Take off your porn blocker.

[psuhoffman]

35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well lately the whole thing has largely been bunk. Just talking about how things worked prior to this 9-year -PDO (and whatever else) disaster stretch. Things seem to be a little better this year...

You mean when Baltimore got snowstorms after PD in 1993, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2014 and 2015?  Where does this feeling it’s harder to get snow after Presidents’ Day come from?  

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/analog.php

Thank you 

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's 3 great runs in a row on the AI with improvements on each one. I call that significant. 

Man, you love you some AI. I feel like it kinda collapses as we get closer in

[ravensrule]

11 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Take off your porn blocker.

I took it off and that @DarkSharkWX is a real sicko, but i LOVE it. 

[stormtracker]

And we’re off. 18z has begun.  New slate people!

[psuhoffman]

@frd I think the trough ends up centered more in the east for the end of February. The issue is where you live no pattern makes it super likely to get a big snow. You know your climo. Even the best patterns fail more often than not. That’s true even here but especially on the coastal plain. I’d also bet more of your huge snows had more epo/pna help. Here that’s a cold dry look a -epo/ao/nao/+pna. But for you that’s probably more common for a big snow. But honestly not sure, what are the biggest snows for your area?  Do you get in on the coastal scrapers or the 95 storms more?   Or are you stuck in between where you get some from both?  

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Man, you love you some AI. I feel like it kinda collapses as we get closer in

I dont think anyone has let mitchnick down as much as AL. Its like the proud parent who boasts about his kid and then the kid ends up in jail a few days later