DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: It is. I would like to see the NAO and vortex a little further south. Looks like a great pattern for the NE to me. it made those improvements today! that pattern would more than work for us verbatim especially for the typically favored areas you don't have an uber -EPO like last time suppressing everything to the south and since theres a weak STJ you'd be able to get weaker boundary waves to hit you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: lol this model is gonna do it again to me, string me along… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 lol aifs actually rebounded some more cold this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: How did it ultimately miss on the January storm too far south and too cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, aldie 22 said: How did it ultimately miss on the January storm too far south and too cold? to be fair it honestly did a really good job on H500 which is where its highest scores are in, its not meant to be used for mesoscale features the mesos didn't give us good guidance that day so for me thats another AIFS W 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 folks coming on aifs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 holddddd 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: What does this look like up to H168 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: Does this algorithm count sleet as snow like the GFS on TT does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, DarkSharkWX said: holddddd I never like a H position like that with a return flow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 31 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: on other news this is very very nice Looks happy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Interstate said: I never like a H position like that with a return flow. There's a High up to the NNW moving east. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, psuhoffman said: Looks happy The official Clown map. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 can anyone else not see the darkshark posts? anyway - AI is like 10-12" for most of us. Mix line is around Fredricksburg. Looks kinda classic Miller A 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 That's 3 great runs in a row on the AI with improvements on each one. I call that significant. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Since when did we start trying to lock in details on progressive waves 150 hours out? This is nuts. Some are acting like these storms are 24 hours out having an emotional reaction to every run. Just because we had a few days with guidance spitting our crazy snow totals doesn’t chance how far out it is or make the guidance more accurate at those ranges. Folks just haven't quite learned the lesson that many of us are forced to that fantasy snow is great but until it's day 3/4, you can't trust anything. Even the ensembles. Still showing snow next week so awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: can anyone else not see the darkshark posts? anyway - AI is like 10-12" for most of us. Mix line is around Fredricksburg. Looks kinda classic Miller A Take off your porn blocker. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 35 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Well lately the whole thing has largely been bunk. Just talking about how things worked prior to this 9-year -PDO (and whatever else) disaster stretch. Things seem to be a little better this year... You mean when Baltimore got snowstorms after PD in 1993, 1994, 1996, 1999, 2005, 2009, 2014 and 2015? Where does this feeling it’s harder to get snow after Presidents’ Day come from? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 46 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/analog.php Thank you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: That's 3 great runs in a row on the AI with improvements on each one. I call that significant. Man, you love you some AI. I feel like it kinda collapses as we get closer in 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Take off your porn blocker. I took it off and that @DarkSharkWX is a real sicko, but i LOVE it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 And we’re off. 18z has begun. New slate people! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 @frd I think the trough ends up centered more in the east for the end of February. The issue is where you live no pattern makes it super likely to get a big snow. You know your climo. Even the best patterns fail more often than not. That’s true even here but especially on the coastal plain. I’d also bet more of your huge snows had more epo/pna help. Here that’s a cold dry look a -epo/ao/nao/+pna. But for you that’s probably more common for a big snow. But honestly not sure, what are the biggest snows for your area? Do you get in on the coastal scrapers or the 95 storms more? Or are you stuck in between where you get some from both? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Man, you love you some AI. I feel like it kinda collapses as we get closer in I dont think anyone has let mitchnick down as much as AL. Its like the proud parent who boasts about his kid and then the kid ends up in jail a few days later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: And we’re off. 18z has begun. New slate people! i need to see a lot of blue even if its not going to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18z GFS shows freezing rain for tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: @frd I think the trough ends up centered more in the east for the end of February. The issue is where you live no pattern makes it super likely to get a big snow. You know your climo. Even the best patterns fail more often than not. That’s true even here but especially on the coastal plain. I’d also bet more of your huge snows had more epo/pna help. Here that’s a cold dry look a -epo/ao/nao/+pna. But for you that’s probably more common for a big snow. But honestly not sure, what are the biggest snows for your area? Do you get in on the coastal scrapers or the 95 storms more? Or are you stuck in between where you get some from both? He is kind of in the same boat as RevWarReenactor. Misses out/gets fringed on a lot of scrapers/sliders, and struggles with the marginal events where it snows just to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, Ji said: i need to see a lot of blue even if its not going to happen Just look down. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 how did we miss thiss https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=namconus®ion=us&pkg=mslp_pcpn_frzn&runtime=2025020518&fh=66 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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