February Medium/Long Range Thread

[psuhoffman]

33 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Pardon the trolling but weren’t we getting PD2 redux 24 hours ago? I’m shook today. 

My reference to PD2 was specific to what that run yesterday showed. I feel like I’ve tried to encourage caution regarding this pattern. But I know that’s impossible when models are spitting out crazy clown maps.
 

 I’m also trying to balance caution with not being a deb.  I don’t feel like we’re doomed. We could get a big snow. But when I searched for analogs to next week many of them the bigger snow was to our NW. but it was hard to find a great pattern match honestly.  I’m just have been more skeptical I think or maybe reserved. 

18 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Just a shame we couldn't get the expected setup for that window earlier! Been awhile since we timed something bigger in our best window (mid Jan--PD). The 6"+ outside those dates are too few and far between for me to not feel that "too late!" feeling. But I guess it'll be something if we can score some minor events...

Why?  If we get a snowstorm Feb 25 you’re gonna complain it wasn’t Feb 10?  Plus I’m not throwing in the towel on next week. Why is everyone going to extremes. I’m not confident we do get a big snow soliton. The more common outcome would be a parade of waves with some snow and ice with each. But anomalies happen. It wouldn’t shock me if we get a 6-10” snowstorm somehow next week from one of those waves. It kinda would shock me if those 20” storms from yesterday’s Euro and GFS hit. Dunno what they were smoking. But it also wouldn’t shock me if we get 1-3” then ice which is historically favored in that pattern. But it’s too early to be confident on either outcome. 

[psuhoffman]

Since when did we start trying to lock in details on progressive waves 150 hours out?  This is nuts. Some are acting like these storms are 24 hours out having an emotional reaction to every run.  Just because we had a few days with guidance spitting our crazy snow totals doesn’t chance how far out it is or make the guidance more accurate at those ranges. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

My reference to PD2 was specific to what that run yesterday showed. I feel like I’ve tried to encourage caution regarding this pattern. But I know that’s impossible when models are spitting out crazy clown maps.
 

 I’m also trying to balance caution with not being a deb.  I don’t feel like we’re doomed. We could get a big snow. But when I searched for analogs to next week many of them the bigger snow was to our NW. but it was hard to find a great pattern match honestly.  I’m just have been more skeptical I think or maybe reserved. 

Why?  If we get a snowstorm Feb 25 you’re gonna complain it wasn’t Feb 10?  Plus I’m not throwing in the towel on next week. Why is everyone going to extremes. I’m not confident we do get a big snow soliton. The more common outcome would be a parade of waves with some snow and ice with each. But anomalies happen. It wouldn’t shock me if we get a 6-10” snowstorm somehow next week from one of those waves. It kinda would shock me if those 20” storms from yesterday’s Euro and GFS hit. Dunno what they were smoking. But it also wouldn’t shock me if we get 1-3” then ice which is historically favored in that pattern. But it’s too early to be confident on either outcome. 

Do you think the blocking migrates further South as we near the end of the month in a position more favorable and impactful to our area. Really talking the NAO block. Thoughts 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Since when did we start trying to lock in details on progressive waves 150 hours out?  This is nuts. Some are acting like these storms are 24 hours out having an emotional reaction to every run.  Just because we had a few days with guidance spitting our crazy snow totals doesn’t chance how far out it is or make the guidance more accurate at those ranges. 

This.

[MountainGeek]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

Since when did we start trying to lock in details on progressive waves 150 hours out?  This is nuts. Some are acting like these storms are 24 hours out having an emotional reaction to every run.  Just because we had a few days with guidance spitting our crazy snow totals doesn’t chance how far out it is or make the guidance more accurate at those ranges. 

Ewe must bee knew hear....

[frd]

Just now, stormtracker said:

This.

Exactly. Some folks, even myself, take models at long leads too seriously. 

[aldie 22]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Since when did we start trying to lock in details on progressive waves 150 hours out?  This is nuts. Some are acting like these storms are 24 hours out having an emotional reaction to every run.  Just because we had a few days with guidance spitting our crazy snow totals doesn’t chance how far out it is or make the guidance more accurate at those ranges. 

Honest question when every ensemble seemed in lock step yesterday for something significant to the point where even you were like wow and I've never seen that before....what was their purpose or value in forecasting in your opinion?

[deer]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

what do i do with this?

Cry I guess 

[mitchnick]

@DarkSharkWX

WxBell out yet with 12z AI?

[DarkSharkWX]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My reference to PD2 was specific to what that run yesterday showed. I feel like I’ve tried to encourage caution regarding this pattern. But I know that’s impossible when models are spitting out crazy clown maps.
 

 I’m also trying to balance caution with not being a deb.  I don’t feel like we’re doomed. We could get a big snow. But when I searched for analogs to next week many of them the bigger snow was to our NW. but it was hard to find a great pattern match honestly.  I’m just have been more skeptical I think or maybe reserved. 

Why?  If we get a snowstorm Feb 25 you’re gonna complain it wasn’t Feb 10?  Plus I’m not throwing in the towel on next week. Why is everyone going to extremes. I’m not confident we do get a big snow soliton. The more common outcome would be a parade of waves with some snow and ice with each. But anomalies happen. It wouldn’t shock me if we get a 6-10” snowstorm somehow next week from one of those waves. It kinda would shock me if those 20” storms from yesterday’s Euro and GFS hit. Dunno what they were smoking. But it also wouldn’t shock me if we get 1-3” then ice which is historically favored in that pattern. But it’s too early to be confident on either outcome. 

late feb-early march 2003 and feb 1989 are showing up on CPC analogs a lot as well as years in the late 50s/early 60s, earliest date for feb 2003 was feb 20

[IronTy]

6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Honest question when every ensemble seemed in lock step yesterday for something significant to the point where even you were like wow and I've never seen that before....what was their purpose or value in forecasting in your opinion?

Well now we can't say we've never seen that before.  So it wasn't a total loss.  

[NorthArlington101]

8 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Honest question when every ensemble seemed in lock step yesterday for something significant to the point where even you were like wow and I've never seen that before....what was their purpose or value in forecasting in your opinion?

I’m guilty of it too but it’s those kind of things that make today feel like a rug pull. Constant “this feels like 2016 6 days out” comparisons. And tbf it did lol. 

[psuhoffman]

@frd if you don’t mind me asking, what part of Delaware do you live?  

[DarkSharkWX]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

@DarkSharkWX

WxBell out yet with 12z AI?

nah not yet

[frd]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd if you don’t mind me asking, what part of Delaware do you live?  

Middletown DE. 19709 

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, frd said:

Middletown DE. 19709 

Oh, a postal worker!

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Honest question when every ensemble seemed in lock step yesterday for something significant to the point where even you were like wow and I've never seen that before....what was their purpose or value in forecasting in your opinion?

I think the uniformity can be taken as a sign a somewhat similar setup will happen. If a random model shows a storm at 160 hours there have even a guarantee any storm at all happens anywhere. The wave could be an error. But even if it happens 100 mile shifts either way are normal errors at that range. 
 

And the strong consensus I do think increased confidence. But from like 10% to 30% or something like that.  Normally I wouldn’t even give some crazy snowstorm on a day 7-10 run without a ton of guidance support any chance at all. I’d just toss it. This gave it some hope. But some were acting like it meant a big snow was the most likely outcome.  

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

late feb-early march 2003 and feb 1989 are showing up on CPC analogs a lot as well as years in the late 50s/early 60s, earliest date for feb 2003 was feb 20

Where you getting them from. My source isn’t updating…thanks. 

[Maestrobjwa]

31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Why?  If we get a snowstorm Feb 25 you’re gonna complain it wasn’t Feb 10?  Plus I’m not throwing in the towel on next week. Why is everyone going to extremes. I’m not confident we do get a big snow soliton. The more common outcome would be a parade of waves with some snow and ice with each. But anomalies happen. It wouldn’t shock me if we get a 6-10” snowstorm somehow next week from one of those waves. It kinda would shock me if those 20” storms from yesterday’s Euro and GFS hit. Dunno what they were smoking. But it also wouldn’t shock me if we get 1-3” then ice which is historically favored in that pattern. But it’s too early to be confident on either outcome. 

On this part I think you misunderstand me. I would be ecstatic if it happened. But I just don't like to bet on post PD for bigger snows because it just doesn't happen often enough. I just don't trust it, tbh. Yeah you could point to an example here or there, but we have more hits in prime climo than outside of it! So it's more of a confidence thing...I'd rather take a swing for a 6"+ during the historically best calendar period for snow than to try for afterward. Feels like ya have a better chance! But this isn't scientific though, lol

As far as next week is concerned, I'm not at all giving up on snow prospects. Though admittedly I did lose a little interest for Tues-Wed. Hey we do better with warning events on weekends anyway  (another weird historical quirk we have around here)

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I’m guilty of it too but it’s those kind of things that make today feel like a rug pull. Constant “this feels like 2016 6 days out” comparisons. And tbf it did lol. 

I hear ya. Know who to listen to. Several people were quick to point out this is not a 2016 type setup and the similarities on the snow maps were superficial 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

On this part I think you misunderstand me. I would be ecstatic if it happened. But I just don't like to bet on post PD for bigger snows because it just doesn't happen often enough. I just don't trust it, tbh. Yeah you could point to an example here or there, but we have more hits in prime climo than outside of it! So it's more of a confidence thing...I'd rather take a swing for a 6"+ during the historically best calendar period for snow than to try for afterward. Feels like ya have a better chance! But this isn't scientific though, lol

As far as next week is concerned, I'm not at all giving up on snow prospects. Though admittedly I did lose a little interest for Tues-Wed. Hey we do better with warning events on weekends anyway  (another weird historical quirk we have around here)

How many big snows have we had before PD in February lately?  

[Ji]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I hear ya. Know who to listen to. Several people were quick to point out this is not a 2016 type setup and the similarities on the snow maps were superficial 

nobody said that this was 2016 lol. Its not even close. What we were saying is we havent seem maps like that from all the models at one time since 2016

[DarkSharkWX]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Where you getting them from. My source isn’t updating…thanks. 

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/analog.php

[NorthArlington101]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I hear ya. Know who to listen to. Several people were quick to point out this is not a 2016 type setup and the similarities on the snow maps were superficial 

Understand but this is kind of like social media. Enough people repeat the same thing in a bubble and it feels true. Hype builds and cascades and next thing you know my family says I lied when there isn’t a major snowstorm next week.

[DarkSharkWX]

on other news this is very very nice

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

How many big snows have we had before PD in February lately?  

Well lately the whole thing has largely been bunk. Just talking about how things worked prior to this 9-year -PDO (and whatever else) disaster stretch. Things seem to be a little better this year...

[ravensrule]

28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

@frd if you don’t mind me asking, what part of Delaware do you live?  

Obviously the snowhole of DE (aka) NorthBaltoZen. 

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

nobody said that this was 2016 lol. Its not even close. What we were saying is we havent seem maps like that from all the models at one time since 2016

Yeah yesterday's collective model head fake at 12z was nasty work, lol It was hard to ignore...but this was a rare occaison where I guess they all made the same mistake. Ah well...what's a little more model run delirium to shake off, eh?

[NorthArlington101]

Can't quite capture the full precip of the 12z AIFS but it all looks like snow for most of us. Will check the new fancy Ptype maps soon.

[DarkSharkWX]

@mitchnick
lol this is gas