February Medium/Long Range Thread

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This same map was like 4” areawide 1 day ago. Shows our problem, unfortunately. 
 

Euro is amped up.  GFS is suppression depression.    Fun

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Euro is amped up.  GFS is suppression depression.    Fun

Unfortunately that’s the GEFS. GEFS is more EURO-y

[Ji]

what do i do with this?

[North Balti Zen]

Drive south two hours. 

[frd]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

what do i do with this?

Is that the two day warm up ? 

[Paleocene]

Missed many pages. Are we raining?

[SnowGolfBro]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

what do i do with this?

Play golf at Pendleton?

[IronTy]

I feel like the cold January has the bay waters colder than we're used to which is helping those of us by the water for once.  

[NorthArlington101]

A hair better than 00z but really don’t like the north element. Was so much better 24 hours ago

[mitchnick]

If you haven't shed a tear this year yet, let me help. That's pretty incredible even if it's wrong.

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

If you haven't shed a tear this year yet, let me help. That's pretty incredible even if it's wrong.

Those are Japan worthy accumulations

[psuhoffman]

14 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If you haven't shed a tear this year yet, let me help. That's pretty incredible even if it's wrong.

I wasn’t going to post it. But unfortunately if the reality ends up that, that’s what this type of pattern actually historically tends to produce. Our big snow patterns usually have a negative at h5 centered further south. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

I wasn’t going to post it. Bit unfortunately of the reality ends up that, that’s what this type of pattern actually historically tends to produce. Our big snow patterns usually have a negative at h5 centered further south. 

I was thinking even last night that the NAO block was further north than usual

But I ain't shedding a tear over the crazy euro snow map up through NE, most of that comes after day 10 which will almost certainly change of course

[North Balti Zen]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

If you haven't shed a tear this year yet, let me help. That's pretty incredible even if it's wrong.

fwiw, no fucking way southwest to central Ohio gets three feet of snow over that timeframe. Never happened there, not gonna happen now. 

[brooklynwx99]

absolutely obscene 

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn’t going to post it. Bit unfortunately of the reality ends up that, that’s what this type of pattern actually historically tends to produce. Our big snow patterns usually have a negative at h5 centered further south. 

It may indeed be to our north, but that snow map in Ohio is fucking hilarious. No way, no how. Even in their best snow runs through the southwest and central parts of the state, half of that would be noteworthy. 

[midatlanticweather]

Can we will it back south like 2014? 

A GPT poem

The writing is on the wall,
a warning clear, a whispered call.
Slip, sliding fast to northern skies,
we watch it go with knowing eyes.

The models now have played their hand,
revealing truths we understand.
@Ji, the signs are loud and plain—
we’re too far south for a big snow again!

[DarkSharkWX]

EPS trending better in long range for the period psuhoffman and others have been highlighting, more +PNA/-NAO

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

absolutely obscene 

Just eyeballing, but that NAO block looks a tick south from previous runs

[mappy]

24 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Missed many pages. Are we raining?

Yeah. Sorry. 70s next week with maybe storms on Valentines Day

[frd]

2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

EPS trending better in long range for the period psuhoffman and others have been highlighting, more +PNA/-NAO

Some good news is much appreciated ! 

[NorthArlington101]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I wasn’t going to post it. Bit unfortunately of the reality ends up that, that’s what this type of pattern actually historically tends to produce. Our big snow patterns usually have a negative at h5 centered further south. 

Pardon the trolling but weren’t we getting PD2 redux 24 hours ago? I’m shook today. 

[mitchnick]

12z AI IS BETTER THAN 6Z!

[mitchnick]

12z AI looks similar to 6z (6z maps posted earlier today) on temps but more qpf based on my guess.

[DarkSharkWX]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

12z AI IS BETTER THAN 6Z!

graphcast too!

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just eyeballing, but that NAO block looks a tick south from previous runs

I think we get at least some snow before and a week ago that would have been a win. But I still like later in Feb or early March even more. 

[mitchnick]

AI also has a coastal next Wednesday (2/19) that is light to moderate as of today, but decent looking and could be better assuming it doesn't evaporate at 18z. Lol

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we get at least some snow before and a week ago that would have been a win. But I still like later in Feb or early March even more. 

Based on a crappy SV EPS snowmap I just saw on Twitter, it keeps tacking on through the end of the run and still ends up with some gaudy totals? But sharper southern gradient then earlier runs.

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I think we get at least some snow before and a week ago that would have been a win. But I still like later in Feb or early March even more. 

Just a shame we couldn't get the expected setup for that window earlier! Been awhile since we timed something bigger in our best window (mid Jan--PD). The 6"+ outside those dates are too few and far between for me to not feel that "too late!" feeling. But I guess it'll be something if we can score some minor events...

[mitchnick]

Ukie ensembles last 3 runs compared. 12z improved over 6z in most areas