February Medium/Long Range Thread

[stormtracker]

Snowfall maps show decent for NW burbs as close in as mid Montgomery County.  Metros looks like shit, so thermals must suck for us

[Terpeast]

12z euro is colder both at sfc and 850, thicknesses further south (compared to 06z)

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, stormtracker said:

So far, that first slug is missing to the south...let's see what round 2 does

That first slug was the anafront thing the models had a few days back. That is an irrelevant player imho. If we flake from it consider it a bonus.

[NorthArlington101]

[stormtracker]

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

That first slug was the anafront thing the models had a few days back. That is an irrelevant player imho. If we flake from it consider it a bonus.

Yes that was the so called round 2

[stormtracker]

Heh, same time we posted!

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Snowfall maps show decent for NW burbs as close in as mid Montgomery County.  Metros looks like shit, so thermals must suck for us

 

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

12z euro is colder both at sfc and 850, thicknesses further south (compared to 06z)

[Terpeast]

Looks like a thump to mix for DC & points NW

[Twilly05]

11 minutes ago, Shad said:

has anybody tried cutting the Euro off and cutting it back on?

Unplug, wait 60 seconds..oh never mind 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Hope ensembles look better

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

 

Maybe he was comparing to 0z

[ravensrule]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

What does the ice look like?. 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

What does the ice look like?. 

Kinda translucent usually

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Maybe he was comparing to 0z

Yes, you're right, it was 0z I was comparing to. My bad

[stormtracker]

Well, today wasn't the best of model days.   Luckily, we still have time for changes.   18z! 

[psuhoffman]

25 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

just so people understand how absurd modeling is getting for mid-late month, this is the GEPS through 300. insane amounts of snow

this is the pattern during that snowfall mean. not after the block breaks down, which is when you'd probably get your largest storm. it's beyond lmao

Before we get another emotional reaction from the same people, this is just a general observation not specific to our snow threats just pointing something out...

Now with the disclaimer out of the way... it is a little odd that with that extreme a -AO with a TPV displaced over Quebec that the heights are as high as they are over the the CONUS.  Basically...you would think it would be colder given that longwave pattern.  

Again...I am not saying we won't get snow... there is way more that goes into that then the mean h5 heights.  

[Solution Man]

Euro 6-10 with lollipops, nothing to sneeze at

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Solution Man said:

Euro 6-10 with lollipops, nothing to sneeze at

Yeah, for N and W burbs, sure.

[H2O]

I live near in the red circle.

 

[stormtracker]

Just now, H2O said:

I live near in the red circle.

 

Know sknow for you.

[LeesburgWx]

This is better than 00z though right?

[ravensrule]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Know sknow for you.

Is this a European language?. 

[stormtracker]

Just now, ravensrule said:

Is this a European language?. 

No, it's not knew

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Know sknow for you.

I new it

[NorthArlington101]

This same map was like 4” areawide 1 day ago. Shows our problem, unfortunately. 
 

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

No, it's not knew

Fo show

[Its a Breeze]

6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Well, today wasn't the best of model days.   Luckily, we still have time for changes.   18z! 

Wasn't the best of- What does this even mean???

Do you know where we live!?

 

Imagine us...US complaining about doubling our snowfall totals to date.

 

[WxUSAF]

Several days ago, the storm looked like this multiple series of waves with varying p-types. These MECS solutions consolidated the energy and early in the week. Now we’re back to a bunch of waves along the boundary. Still lots of time left.

[frd]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Before we get another emotional reaction from the same people, this is just a general observation not specific to our snow threats just pointing something out...

Now with the disclaimer out of the way... it is a little odd that with that extreme a -AO with a TPV displaced over Quebec that the heights are as high as they are over the the CONUS.  Basically...you would think it would be colder given that longwave pattern.  

Again...I am not saying we won't get snow... there is way more that goes into that then the mean h5 heights.  

Heights should get lower in time. All I know is we suck here with snow in Delaware. 

However, I will keep the faith and go with @brooklynwx99 ! for late month. The best is yet to arrive.