February Medium/Long Range Thread

[T. August]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

lol. lock it up - combo the GFS and CMC fits the six-year pattern for our area. 

Gefs is north through 129… there’s still hope lol.

[IronTy]

4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

lol. lock it up - combo the GFS and CMC fits the six-year pattern for our area. 

It's that sneaky enhanced snowfall coming off the patuxent.  Leads to Calvert jacks.  

[Interstate]

2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said:

I have good/bad news. As of March 1 I am moving to...Hunt Valley. So you get six miles south for me. Consider this a monkey's paw situation for your wish lol.

That might be all we need to break the curse.

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Simply too much wavering to CAB

Many can be grateful NHC does not have this issue. 

 

Honest question, I am not as familiar with how the NHS does things at these type ranges...what does their projections look like on a tropical system 150 hours out?  How does it compare to what the NWS tries to do regarding a forecast of a synoptic mid latitude system at that range?  Are these two comparable enough to usefully utilize what NHS does to this type of situation?  

[Ji]

ECMWF has a move to solid phase 8 mjo

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

ECMWF has a move to solid phase 8 mjo

Really should use the bias corrected (bc) version. Still gets onto 8 but very weak.

[SnowGoose69]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Really should use the bias corrected (bc) version. Still gets onto 8 but very weak.

Probably explains why to be honest the GEFS/EPS pattern just don't look a whole lot like phase 8 beyond D10, the wave is too weak, although the 12Z GFS Op run post 240 does look more phase 8ish on the pattern

[North Balti Zen]

12 minutes ago, Interstate said:

That might be all we need to break the curse.

I was in the Hampden/Roland Park area before Dec. 2021 so...the curse has really been with me since about a second after the snow ended in January 2016. I think 2019 was last warning level snow I saw in an area I was living - and that was in Balt City. Not since then.  I am like the guy from Thanks for all the Fish where the rain follows him around only it is my shielding snow wherever I am. Even when I chased a snowfall up to frickin' Thurmont in 2019 I drove the snow away. 12 inch forecast and they got 3 inches that day. Worst superpower ever. 

[T. August]

17 minutes ago, T. August said:

Gefs is north through 129… there’s still hope lol.

Good news - the OP is on the southern edge of its ens.

Bad news - quite a few warm misses to the north.

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, T. August said:

Gefs is north through 129… there’s still hope lol.

Don't get your hopes up  

[T. August]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Don't get your hopes up  

I just looked. Not enthused

[WesternFringe]

I have never done this before, but I am worried and have a serious question.  My wife and mother-in-law are flying back from FL to Richmond on Monday.  Then, they have about a 2 hr drive along I-64W to get home.  The current flight lands at 10:00pm Monday, but for a little extra money they can land at 12:30pm.  Any thoughts on which has the better probability of being the safer option?  Any guidance would be welcomed.  Thanks ahead of time.

[LP08]

Sign me up for the UKIE (although it’s never right)

[clskinsfan]

My take away is everything is drier. The models seem to be in pretty decent agreement about where the boundary sets up. But they have no way to know which wave will be the most juiced up at this point. I am guessing one of them will hit us at least. 

[Eskimo Joe]

3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I have never done this before, but I am worried and have a serious question.  My wife and mother-in-law are flying back from FL to Richmond on Monday.  Then, they have about a 2 hr drive along I-64W to get home.  The current flight lands at 10:00pm Monday, but for a little extra money they can land at 12:30pm.  Any thoughts on which has the better probability of being the safer option?  Any guidance would be welcomed.  Thanks ahead of time.

They'll be just fine.

[wasnow215]

7 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I have never done this before, but I am worried and have a serious question.  My wife and mother-in-law are flying back from FL to Richmond on Monday.  Then, they have about a 2 hr drive along I-64W to get home.  The current flight lands at 10:00pm Monday, but for a little extra money they can land at 12:30pm.  Any thoughts on which has the better probability of being the safer option?  Any guidance would be welcomed.  Thanks ahead of time.

Just going by the latest GFS-flying in later Monday night looks better than flying in earlier Monday. The first round of snow begins just before daybreak on Monday according to the GFS again. And brings at least 2 to 3 inches of accumulating snow in the Richmond area by noon. Then it shuts off for a while it seems like and then another round starts Tuesday morning at the same time

[ravensrule]

27 minutes ago, Interstate said:

That might be all we need to break the curse.

Or at least stop the incessant complaining. 

[packfan98]

UKMET looks to be a bit hit for you guys. We lost our piece of it yesterday, so I'm living vicariously through you. Good luck!

Here's the final frame with what looks like plenty more to come.

[mitchnick]

5 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

UKMET looks to be a bit hit for you guys. We lost our piece of it yesterday, so I'm living vicariously through you. Good luck!

Here's the final frame with what looks like plenty more to come.

Yesterday, the Euro followed the Ukie. Let's see if history repeats.

[stormtracker]

19 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I have never done this before, but I am worried and have a serious question.  My wife and mother-in-law are flying back from FL to Richmond on Monday.  Then, they have about a 2 hr drive along I-64W to get home.  The current flight lands at 10:00pm Monday, but for a little extra money they can land at 12:30pm.  Any thoughts on which has the better probability of being the safer option?  Any guidance would be welcomed.  Thanks ahead of time.

Oh man....

Imma let it slide

[aldie 22]

7 minutes ago, packfan98 said:

UKMET looks to be a bit hit for you guys. We lost our piece of it yesterday, so I'm living vicariously through you. Good luck!

Here's the final frame with what looks like plenty more to come.

Alot of that UKIE is an inflated snow amount for tomorrow

[mitchnick]

Gefs

[WesternFringe]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Oh man....

Imma let it slide

Thanks, and sorry.  Just worried about my wife.  And I guess my mother-in-law, too.  Lol

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, aldie 22 said:

Alot of that UKIE is an inflated snow amount for tomorrow

No

[Ji]

euro moving slower than Brian Robinson jr

[winter_warlock]

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gefs

That's not bad

[stormtracker]

 

42 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

Thanks, and sorry.  Just worried about my wife.  And I guess my mother-in-law, too.  Lol

Lol, I'm not letting that slide.

I hope your wife and MIL are stuck in FL until Thursday due to multiple feet of snow in RIC and points north.  If she does make it back, I hope they have to stay at an airport Red Roof Inn, where they'll have to enter via the second story window because the snow is just that high.  Depending on if you like her or not, I hope your MIL is sandblasted from small dendrites as winds are blowing up to tropical storm force. I hope I-64 is closed for days with snowplows strewn about the road ways after their drivers had to be air lifted out.   I hope your wife and MIL are stranded for so long, that when we she arrives home, you drop to the floor in tears as if she's a new woman and because you missed her so.  

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

euro moving slower than Brian Robinson jr

It definitely is.

[stormtracker]

In terms of speed with the panels, the Euro is NAM like today for some reason.   Prob having trouble processing our huge storm to come on this run.

[stormtracker]

Colder for the Feb 8 thing..and a lil wetter.  Looks like frozen, but other than snow