mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 6 minutes ago, Ji said: ECMWF has a move to solid phase 8 mjo Really should use the bias corrected (bc) version. Still gets onto 8 but very weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, mitchnick said: Really should use the bias corrected (bc) version. Still gets onto 8 but very weak. Probably explains why to be honest the GEFS/EPS pattern just don't look a whole lot like phase 8 beyond D10, the wave is too weak, although the 12Z GFS Op run post 240 does look more phase 8ish on the pattern 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 12 minutes ago, Interstate said: That might be all we need to break the curse. I was in the Hampden/Roland Park area before Dec. 2021 so...the curse has really been with me since about a second after the snow ended in January 2016. I think 2019 was last warning level snow I saw in an area I was living - and that was in Balt City. Not since then. I am like the guy from Thanks for all the Fish where the rain follows him around only it is my shielding snow wherever I am. Even when I chased a snowfall up to frickin' Thurmont in 2019 I drove the snow away. 12 inch forecast and they got 3 inches that day. Worst superpower ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 17 minutes ago, T. August said: Gefs is north through 129… there’s still hope lol. Good news - the OP is on the southern edge of its ens. Bad news - quite a few warm misses to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 19 minutes ago, T. August said: Gefs is north through 129… there’s still hope lol. Don't get your hopes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, stormtracker said: Don't get your hopes up I just looked. Not enthused Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I have never done this before, but I am worried and have a serious question. My wife and mother-in-law are flying back from FL to Richmond on Monday. Then, they have about a 2 hr drive along I-64W to get home. The current flight lands at 10:00pm Monday, but for a little extra money they can land at 12:30pm. Any thoughts on which has the better probability of being the safer option? Any guidance would be welcomed. Thanks ahead of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Sign me up for the UKIE (although it’s never right) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 My take away is everything is drier. The models seem to be in pretty decent agreement about where the boundary sets up. But they have no way to know which wave will be the most juiced up at this point. I am guessing one of them will hit us at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: I have never done this before, but I am worried and have a serious question. My wife and mother-in-law are flying back from FL to Richmond on Monday. Then, they have about a 2 hr drive along I-64W to get home. The current flight lands at 10:00pm Monday, but for a little extra money they can land at 12:30pm. Any thoughts on which has the better probability of being the safer option? Any guidance would be welcomed. Thanks ahead of time. They'll be just fine. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wasnow215 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: I have never done this before, but I am worried and have a serious question. My wife and mother-in-law are flying back from FL to Richmond on Monday. Then, they have about a 2 hr drive along I-64W to get home. The current flight lands at 10:00pm Monday, but for a little extra money they can land at 12:30pm. Any thoughts on which has the better probability of being the safer option? Any guidance would be welcomed. Thanks ahead of time. Just going by the latest GFS-flying in later Monday night looks better than flying in earlier Monday. The first round of snow begins just before daybreak on Monday according to the GFS again. And brings at least 2 to 3 inches of accumulating snow in the Richmond area by noon. Then it shuts off for a while it seems like and then another round starts Tuesday morning at the same time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 27 minutes ago, Interstate said: That might be all we need to break the curse. Or at least stop the incessant complaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 UKMET looks to be a bit hit for you guys. We lost our piece of it yesterday, so I'm living vicariously through you. Good luck! Here's the final frame with what looks like plenty more to come. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, packfan98 said: UKMET looks to be a bit hit for you guys. We lost our piece of it yesterday, so I'm living vicariously through you. Good luck! Here's the final frame with what looks like plenty more to come. Yesterday, the Euro followed the Ukie. Let's see if history repeats. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 19 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: I have never done this before, but I am worried and have a serious question. My wife and mother-in-law are flying back from FL to Richmond on Monday. Then, they have about a 2 hr drive along I-64W to get home. The current flight lands at 10:00pm Monday, but for a little extra money they can land at 12:30pm. Any thoughts on which has the better probability of being the safer option? Any guidance would be welcomed. Thanks ahead of time. Oh man.... Imma let it slide 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, packfan98 said: UKMET looks to be a bit hit for you guys. We lost our piece of it yesterday, so I'm living vicariously through you. Good luck! Here's the final frame with what looks like plenty more to come. Alot of that UKIE is an inflated snow amount for tomorrow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gefs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WesternFringe Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, stormtracker said: Oh man.... Imma let it slide Thanks, and sorry. Just worried about my wife. And I guess my mother-in-law, too. Lol 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: Alot of that UKIE is an inflated snow amount for tomorrow No 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 euro moving slower than Brian Robinson jr 1 4 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 7 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Gefs That's not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 42 minutes ago, WesternFringe said: Thanks, and sorry. Just worried about my wife. And I guess my mother-in-law, too. Lol Lol, I'm not letting that slide. I hope your wife and MIL are stuck in FL until Thursday due to multiple feet of snow in RIC and points north. If she does make it back, I hope they have to stay at an airport Red Roof Inn, where they'll have to enter via the second story window because the snow is just that high. Depending on if you like her or not, I hope your MIL is sandblasted from small dendrites as winds are blowing up to tropical storm force. I hope I-64 is closed for days with snowplows strewn about the road ways after their drivers had to be air lifted out. I hope your wife and MIL are stranded for so long, that when we she arrives home, you drop to the floor in tears as if she's a new woman and because you missed her so. 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Ji said: euro moving slower than Brian Robinson jr It definitely is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 In terms of speed with the panels, the Euro is NAM like today for some reason. Prob having trouble processing our huge storm to come on this run. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Colder for the Feb 8 thing..and a lil wetter. Looks like frozen, but other than snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: In terms of speed with the panels, the Euro is NAM like today for some reason. Prob having trouble processing our huge storm to come on this run. last time it delayed like this---we got 20 inches from it 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Ji said: last time it delayed like this---we got 20 inches from it Gird your loins. I have good vibes. Maybe this run will do it. I have no idea yet 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 People prob are gonna cheat by looking at the snowfall map. Ruiners I say!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: People prob are gonna cheat by looking at the snowfall map. Ruiners I say!! Snowfall is behind precip at least for now. 500 is fastest so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 hour ago, Imgoinhungry said: I dont think ive ever seen as much sleet/ice show up on the models as I have the last two days. . That’s why your snowfall maps were lighting up with up to 30” of snow because it wasn’t snow it was ice typical stuff 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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