Fozz Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, H2O said: So to explain for the knew people here, we just don't no what will be the true outcome at this point yet. If we new what was really coming there wouldn't be these shifts in the models. There is just know way to no. Too many correct words Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, something is coming...just gotta keep the thermals. Not sure we will tho 1041 High Pressure over Quebec in a decent spot at the start... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 We have the 850 so far, sfc is a bit too warm...it's going to be a lot of moisture Correction..we had the sfc and 850s were too warm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 We lose the 850s. Freezing line is south of us by a hair Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 looks like zr to rain...not particularly great 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I dont think ive ever seen as much sleet/ice show up on the models as I have the last two days. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 On to the CMC\Euro! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, stormtracker said: looks like zr to rain...not particularly great Still a lot of waves to figure out before that one....but the potential for numerous frozen events next week is my takeaway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 5 minutes ago, H2O said: So to explain for the knew people here, we just don't no what will be the true outcome at this point yet. If we new what was really coming there wouldn't be these shifts in the models. There is just know way to no. I see what you did there, fucker. But seriously...I'm not at all worried about the GFS. Even if the other models suck, no point in giving up this early in the game. If we are in a shit spot on Friday...that's when the concern starts 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Hopefully Gfs ensembles are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Simply too much wavering to CAB Many can be grateful NHC does not have this issue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: On to the CMC\Euro! So far cmc not looking hot. It’s about 12 hours slower and definitely south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Perhaps CMC showing another way at 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Canadian misses almost everyone to the south with the Monday wave, weak/dry as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 9 minutes ago, H2O said: So to explain for the knew people here, we just don't no what will be the true outcome at this point yet. If we new what was really coming there wouldn't be these shifts in the models. There is just know way to no. This will change 42 more times before Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Ok, on to the Euro! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said: This will change 42 more times before Monday. It's a shame folks can't control their emotions about simulations we know are likely to change or waiver this far out. But, here we are. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 It's obvious two things have to happen before next week becomes clear. Tonights mess and whatever is supposed to happen on Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's a shame folks can't control their emotions about simulations we know are likely to change or waiver this far out. But, here we are. Human Nature... We see the best possible outcome... then we cannot settle for anything less. Just like a casino... one more spin... I promise. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 18 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'd rather be north of the precip than south. GFS has been wobble wobble. Euro should be fun Yesterday we got a couple Op runs that showed a consolidated storm idea, but that was never the most likely outcome in this type patter, and was probably just a fluke that both major operations spit out the same permutation at the same time. There are more likely to be multiple waves along the boundary. The good news is it would take a lot of bad luck to miss all of them. It would also take a lot of good luck to get the multiple hits it would take to rack up some of the crazy numbers a few runs have shown. This GFS run was the worse case scenario where we got 2 waves go just south of us and 1 wave go just north of us. But what are the odds each wave does exactly that from this range...about 0! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Simply too much wavering to CAB Many can be grateful NHC does not have this issue. There won't be a NHC pretty soon. 1 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, T. August said: So far cmc not looking hot. It’s about 12 hours slower and definitely south. lol. lock it up - combo the GFS and CMC fits the six-year pattern for our area. 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 the Canadian waits till Thursday to finally snow on us but its snow not ice 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said: lol. lock it up - combo the GFS and CMC fits the six-year pattern for our area. Move south Please... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Interstate said: Move south Please... I have good/bad news. As of March 1 I am moving to...Hunt Valley. So you get six miles south for me. Consider this a monkey's paw situation for your wish lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: lol. lock it up - combo the GFS and CMC fits the six-year pattern for our area. Gefs is north through 129… there’s still hope lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: lol. lock it up - combo the GFS and CMC fits the six-year pattern for our area. It's that sneaky enhanced snowfall coming off the patuxent. Leads to Calvert jacks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: I have good/bad news. As of March 1 I am moving to...Hunt Valley. So you get six miles south for me. Consider this a monkey's paw situation for your wish lol. That might be all we need to break the curse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 16 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Simply too much wavering to CAB Many can be grateful NHC does not have this issue. Honest question, I am not as familiar with how the NHS does things at these type ranges...what does their projections look like on a tropical system 150 hours out? How does it compare to what the NWS tries to do regarding a forecast of a synoptic mid latitude system at that range? Are these two comparable enough to usefully utilize what NHS does to this type of situation? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 ECMWF has a move to solid phase 8 mjo 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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