February Medium/Long Range Thread

[H2O]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

wow.  Stark change.   Shit just keeps wobbling and windshield wiping.   Not the final solution yet guys.

So to explain for the knew people here, we just don't no what will be the true outcome at this point yet.  If we new what was really coming there wouldn't be these shifts in the models.  There is just know way to no.  

[Fozz]

Fredericksburg gets a double whammy. Two back to back warning storms.

[mitchnick]

Won't live or die by gfs operational. 

[stormtracker]

Yeah, something is coming...just gotta keep the thermals.   Not sure we will tho

[stormtracker]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Won't live or die by gfs operational. 

As you should

[Fozz]

1 minute ago, H2O said:

So to explain for the knew people here, we just don't no what will be the true outcome at this point yet.  If we new what was really coming there wouldn't be these shifts in the models.  There is just know way to no.  

Too many correct words 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, something is coming...just gotta keep the thermals.   Not sure we will tho

1041 High Pressure over Quebec in a decent spot at the start...

[stormtracker]

We have the 850 so far, sfc is a bit too warm...it's going to be a lot of moisture

Correction..we had the sfc and 850s were too warm

[stormtracker]

We lose the 850s.  Freezing line is south of us by a hair

[stormtracker]

looks like zr to rain...not particularly great

[Imgoinhungry]

I dont think ive ever seen as much sleet/ice show up on the models as I have the last two days.


.

[stormtracker]

On to the CMC\Euro!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, stormtracker said:

looks like zr to rain...not particularly great

Still a lot of waves to figure out before that one....but the potential for numerous frozen events next week is my takeaway. 

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, H2O said:

So to explain for the knew people here, we just don't no what will be the true outcome at this point yet.  If we new what was really coming there wouldn't be these shifts in the models.  There is just know way to no.  

I see what you did there, fucker.

But seriously...I'm not at all worried about the GFS.  Even if the other models suck, no point in giving up this early in the game.   If we are in a shit spot on Friday...that's when the concern starts

[winter_warlock]

 Hopefully Gfs ensembles  are better

[WEATHER53]

Simply too much wavering to CAB

Many can be grateful NHC does not have this issue. 

 

[T. August]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

On to the CMC\Euro!

So far cmc not looking hot. It’s about 12 hours slower and definitely south.

[Solution Man]

Perhaps CMC showing another way at 156

[DDweatherman]

Canadian misses almost everyone to the south with the Monday wave, weak/dry as well. 

[blizzardmeiser]

9 minutes ago, H2O said:

So to explain for the knew people here, we just don't no what will be the true outcome at this point yet.  If we new what was really coming there wouldn't be these shifts in the models.  There is just know way to no.  

This will change 42 more times before Monday. 

[stormtracker]

Ok, on to the Euro!

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, blizzardmeiser said:

This will change 42 more times before Monday. 

It's a shame folks can't control their emotions about simulations we know are likely to change or waiver this far out.  But, here we are.

[aldie 22]

It's obvious two things have to happen before next week becomes clear. Tonights mess and whatever is supposed to happen on Saturday. 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's a shame folks can't control their emotions about simulations we know are likely to change or waiver this far out.  But, here we are.

Human Nature... We see the best possible outcome... then we cannot settle for anything less.  Just like a casino... one more spin... I promise.

[psuhoffman]

18 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, I'd rather be north of the precip than south.   GFS has been wobble wobble.   Euro should be fun

Yesterday we got a couple Op runs that showed a consolidated storm idea, but that was never the most likely outcome in this type patter, and was probably just a fluke that both major operations spit out the same permutation at the same time.   There are more likely to be multiple waves along the boundary.  The good news is it would take a lot of bad luck to miss all of them.  It would also take a lot of good luck to get the multiple hits it would take to rack up some of the crazy numbers a few runs have shown.  This GFS run was the worse case scenario where we got 2 waves go just south of us and 1 wave go just north of us.  But what are the odds each wave does exactly that from this range...about 0!  

[anotherman]

8 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Simply too much wavering to CAB

Many can be grateful NHC does not have this issue. 

 

There won't be a NHC pretty soon.

[North Balti Zen]

11 minutes ago, T. August said:

So far cmc not looking hot. It’s about 12 hours slower and definitely south.

lol. lock it up - combo the GFS and CMC fits the six-year pattern for our area. 

[Ji]

the Canadian waits till Thursday to finally snow on us but its snow not ice 

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

lol. lock it up - combo the GFS and CMC fits the six-year pattern for our area. 

Move south Please...

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, Interstate said:

Move south Please...

I have good/bad news. As of March 1 I am moving to...Hunt Valley. So you get six miles south for me. Consider this a monkey's paw situation for your wish lol.