February Medium/Long Range Thread

[bncho]

looks a hair colder

[stormtracker]

Good initial batch for RIC and environs with heaviest over them and just to our south

[clskinsfan]

A tick faster this run?

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

looks a hair colder

Not really

[stormtracker]

Surface is warmer...don't know if it's a spike...but sfc freezing line is north of us whereas on 6z it was south

[stormtracker]

Surface is def warmer, freezing is north vs 6z on the next panel.  850 is a bit cooler.  Precip is lighter

[clskinsfan]

Hits us Monday morning. Faster like the ICON

[Interstate]

I dont like it based solely on the H5 for my area

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Round 1 looks squashed south a bit from 6z.  Let's see what round 2 does.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, clskinsfan said:

Hits us Monday morning. Faster like the ICON

You mean the precursor? 

[stormtracker]

Second slug approaching.  SO FAR, appears a little lighter and orientation more souther....we'll see.   

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Second slug approaching.  SO FAR, appears a little lighter and orientation more souther....we'll see.   

thank God it's not another tick north.

[stormtracker]

Can't say I'm liking what I see so far, but let's wait guys.  Orientation is def souther and a bit drier

[stormtracker]

850s are colder vs 6z, surface is warmer

[stormtracker]

Yeah, this run is going to be a step back.  RIC and co do well.  Most of the heavier stuff is sliding south of us

 

Rephrase on RIC:  that have the 850s but not the SFC

[DDweatherman]

GFS is just another piece of guidance, I don't see this going south of us given telecomms and the h5 setup over the top. But hey, shit has happened. Lots of runs to go. 

[Ji]

Just now, stormtracker said:

850s are colder vs 6z, surface is warmer

surface will get colder when precip arrives. Main thing is its flatter and not as norther. I think its a good thing. Lets see

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Yeah, this run is going to be a step back.  RIC and co do well.  Most of the heavier stuff is sliding south of us

that's fine. as long as it isn't another north shift then we're fine imo

[stormtracker]

LOL...almost total whiff to the south

[Interstate]

One of the problems is it looks more zonal than the 6z on the H5

[LeesburgWx]

Yeah, we don’t want north. Keep this thing to our south for a bit longer before any north trends

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Ji said:

surface will get colder when precip arrives. Main thing is its flatter and not as norther. I think its a good thing. Lets see

Agree, really didn't want to see everything trend toward the 0z Euro.  

[stormtracker]

wow.  Stark change.   Shit just keeps wobbling and windshield wiping.   Not the final solution yet guys.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, LeesburgWx said:

Yeah, we don’t want north. Keep this thing to our south for a bit longer before any north trends

Yeah, I'd rather be north of the precip than south.   GFS has been wobble wobble.   Euro should be fun

[Interstate]

7 minutes ago, Interstate said:

I dont like it based solely on the H5 for my area

You could tell early on that it was going to shift south based on the H5 maps 

[stormtracker]

Maybe something behind it brewing

[IronTy]

Lol, another SoMD special.  I don't believe it yet.  

[Fozz]

I’m ok with this latest GFS. With the southeast ridge in place, we can easily afford for this to be south of us at this range. 

[Buddy1987]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

LOL...almost total whiff to the south

SMOKED  nice to see at least until 18z has a totally different look.

[stormtracker]

If we can keep thermals, this could get interesting