February Medium/Long Range Thread

[MountainGeek]

Just now, mappy said:

This would have been funnier had you wrote knew instead 

Your write!

[brooklynwx99]

34 minutes ago, frd said:

Here is the NAO forecast

 

those index charts are such bullshit. this is a -NAO, full stop

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

ICON very different from the GFS....not good agreement by the ops yet even out to 120 so confidence remains low. 

[brooklynwx99]

why use your eyeballs and your brain to analyze the pattern when you can doom over some pressure calculation developed like 40 years ago?

[Solution Man]

icon looks loaded

[mitchnick]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

ICON very different from the GFS....not good agreement by the ops yet even out to 120 so confidence remains low. 

Similar to yesterday's solution.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

ICON looks like its headed towards a F.....O.....

 

 

[clskinsfan]

ICON is lining us up on Tuesday. Stuck at 150. But looks pretty good.

PUMMELED.

[mitchnick]

Looks like there's a part 2 coming too.

[SnowenOutThere]

ICON is very nice, keeps everything cold while not having us out of the best precip

[frd]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

those index charts are such bullshit. this is a -NAO, full stop

 

You are posting the EPS, and I posted the NAO forecast from the CPC. 

I would expect differences. We will have to revisit in days 11 to 15. 

However, I do believe the NAO from the CPC source will trend negative and even significantly negative in time, because we have a -NAO loading pattern in place, that "should" lead to a robust - NAO late month.  

  

[Solution Man]

Just now, mitchnick said:

Looks like there's a part 2 coming too.

Wish we could see what’s left to come 

[Wonderdog]

4 hours ago, Ji said:

The 6z euro looks pretty bad. We may see very little snow next week

We may see a lot.

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, frd said:

 

You are posting the EPS, and I posted the NAO forecast from the CPC. 

I would expect differences. We will have to revisit in days 11 to 15. 

However, I do believe the NAO from the CPC source will trend negative and even significantly negative in time, because we have a -NAO loading pattern in place, that "should" lead to a robust - NAO late month.  

  

the CPC forecast is based on the GEFS, which looks the same. those indices aren't really that useful since they provide no context

[stormtracker]

11 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

@stormtracker,are you warmed up?

But of course

9 minutes ago, mappy said:

This would have been funnier had you wrote knew instead 

[Solution Man]

8-10 on Icon with more to come

[mappy]

Just now, stormtracker said:

But of course

Ha! You wub me 

[stormtracker]

3 minutes ago, mappy said:

Ha! You wub me 

A little bit

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

ICON ensembles look good, seems like they support keeping us on the good side of the boundary based on the available maps on Pivotal.  Looks like about 1 inch QPF of frozen. 

[bncho]

GFS is running... let's hopefully stop the north trend.

[DarkSharkWX]

tomers website polarwx has AIFS ptype

 

[jayyy]

This thread is a true emotional rollercoaster lol. If we manage a 3-6+ type storm in the LEAD UP to our better pattern from the 20th onward, that’s a huge win. People see one fantasy run with 35” on clown maps 200-300 hours out and for some reason set that as their bar. I’m just as excited for deep winter to return as the next weenie, but let’s be realistic. If we can manage two moderate events before things get truly favorable for a big dog, we should all be elated.

[WhiteoutMD]

3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

tomers website polarwx has AIFS ptype

 

Now you tell us    Thanks for this we all appreciate this 

[stormtracker]

Nothing of note at this time

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the CPC forecast is based on the GEFS, which looks the same. those indices aren't really that useful since they provide no context

Yeah, it’s more north-based block, which still works without playing up suppression risk. No chance of New Orleans getting 10” this time haha

[frd]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, it’s more north-based block, which still works without playing up suppression risk. No chance of New Orleans getting 10” this time haha

Wonder if that might retrograde SW in time? 

[DarkSharkWX]

not sure if its been posted yet but LWX has already maxed potential impact for the entire region

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

those index charts are such bullshit. this is a -NAO, full stop

Yea I know but. Chuck is very linear in some things, it’s his way, and I don’t feel like arguing semantics. But years ago when I did a case study of mid Atlantic snows I noticed the disconnect between the numeric nao and what we effectively call a nao. So I actually looked at each storm at h5 to classify the nao and there were quite a few that had what we consider a -nao but not numerically.
 

BTW we should keep that in mind when looking at charts that show snow by numerical index. We get plenty of small snows but the numbers for a 6”+ snow for DC and Baltimore are even worse if you use the actual pattern to determine nao state v the numeric. Many of those anomaly +nao snowstorms were actually a -nao lol. 

[stormtracker]

Ok, monday, precip is approaching...it's not the main batch

[stormtracker]

Nice slug coming up...temps appear fine so far