February Medium/Long Range Thread

[DarkSharkWX]

 

[brooklynwx99]

absolutely sickening weenie behavior. not all that much has changed since yesterday... there remains elevated potential for a significant storm from DC-NYC basically. details TBD

[clskinsfan]

Euro op is kind of on its own at this point. CMC and GFS are fine. Feel like everyone here either gets snow to significant ice or just snow regardless. Winter weather is coming next week. 

[DarkSharkWX]

euro op and eps shifted south anyways lmao

[midatlanticweather]

1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said:

absolutely sickening weenie behavior. not all that much has changed since yesterday... there remains elevated potential for a significant storm from DC-NYC basically. details TBD

While I appreciate the obvious, we all look for trends that increase confidence. The runs are not doing that this morning.. and last evening. Are they real trends, I dunno.. but when we see the erosion of better looks, our past rug pulls, and disappointments, it will bring the bitterness out of a weenie! We should all be cautious, but we all get emotionally attached to the beautiful runs. 

[Interstate]

5 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

 

When I first saw this I was like meh... then I saw the key.

[hstorm]

4 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

euro op and eps shifted south anyways lmao

This can't be right.  We are supposed to be panicking irrationally.

[midatlanticweather]

7 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

 

Image does not show for me

 

[clskinsfan]

1 minute ago, midatlanticweather said:

While I appreciate the obvious, we all look for trends that increase confidence. The runs are not doing that this morning.. and last evening. Are they real trends, I dunno.. but when we see the erosion of better looks, our past rug pulls, and disappointments, it will bring the bitterness out of a weenie! We should all be cautious, but we all get emotionally attached to the beautiful runs. 

Hence why I always hate being in the bullseye a week out. And I ALWAYS am. Gotta know that going in. And for me 4-8 with a glacier on top is not a rug pull. Everyone just wants the jack. 

[IronTy]

I always get nervous down on the coastal plain when this far out shows significant mixing.  In my experience that doesn't trend better for us typically.  I ordered more salt for my driveway last night, maybe that's the reason for the negative trend today.  

[stormtracker]

29 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI qpf main event

That's all snow/frozen?

[H2O]

42 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I dont understand what’s going on in here.  The 6z GFS improved and shows a double digit snow and this thread and reactions seem anywhere from meh to doom/gloom. What am I missing here?

It’s what happens when one panel from one snapshot in time doesn’t show what one person wants. Jivirus-25 infects things. 
 

Throw in north trend, south trend, tucked trend, wrecked thermals trend and Chiefs get all the call trend.  And you get panic that a potential 8” snow is bad because it had 400” earlier

[winter_warlock]

27 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

 

Wow that's a beaut!!  How can anyone be  negative about that!!

[stormtracker]

29 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

absolutely sickening weenie behavior. not all that much has changed since yesterday... there remains elevated potential for a significant storm from DC-NYC basically. details TBD

That's what I'm saying.  It's honestly just hard to figure with the 6z improved and we haven't even gotten anything from the 12z suite yet.  Even if the 12z shows disappointment, this is still outside of the scope of "lock".  I get that it's "disappointing" to see a run cut back 50% of totals.    But that's still fucking 8-12.   Like, what???

[winter_warlock]

29 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

 

Wide spread 12 to 18!!

[psuhoffman]

6 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

NAO remains positive through Day 15.. You guys may say it's not, but what you are looking at is the AO. The NAO is actually SLP calculated between Iceland and the Azores. What's happening for the next 15 days is a "south-based +NAO", and I've run the maps, it goes with warmer than average conditions in the Mid Atlantic and Southeast. This is why 500mb never gets cold. I'm still of the opinion that the coming storms are mostly rain or ice.. we will do well if we exit this +NAO pattern with more than a few inches of snow total. +NAO/-EPO, which is modeled for some of the time, is correlated to icestorms. 

 

4 hours ago, CAPE said:

That might be the textbook definition of a -NAO, but for practical purposes the NAO is solidly negative on the means by early next week. So is the AO. I somewhat agree that the advertised pattern for next week generally supports mixy events, but a mostly/all snow event is possible with favorable timing/less amplification.

 

2 hours ago, frd said:

Debbie downers were actually correct stating SER is very powerful plus in years past when things looked great the eventual correction was a cold air dump out West. It might be the new normal. Models not great. It's happening yet again.  

what we call it is semantics but the issue with what Chuck did there is by using a technicality to define that as a +nao then looking up all +nao -epo scenarios you’re probably getting mostly “true” +nao scenarios where this isn’t a “north based -nao block” over the top of Chucks “south based +nao”.  again not interested in a debate about what we should call things. 
 

All that said Chuck isn’t wrong that this setup is flawed for a MECS level snow.  The mid latitude longwave configuration is not ideal for a big snowstorm south of 40. The trough our west is an issue. But we have some things working for us we don’t have in every similar setup that gives us a shot. But the analogs to this pattern are more snowy to our north. That’s why I’ve been hesitant to get too excited. 
 

@Ji a 3-6” snow to ice should be a huge win. Look at the h5. It doesn’t matter what the models show on clown maps at 170 hours. You’re better than that, even though you like to come in here and pretend you’re not to vent your frustrations. But you know damn well that this pattern is not typical of a 20” snowstorm.  
 

Im not saying there’s not a chance at a big snow here.  We have some things working for us that are atypical and could argue a better outcome than usual in the general pattern. But it’s risky to assume a big snowstorm solution from a pattern that’s atypical of that level event.  Yes it’s unusual for the ensembles to be this consistent and show these totals. And yes the last time was 2016 but that storm was totally supported by the pattern. I’m more cautious here and would take a more modest snow event as a win. 

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

That's what I'm saying.  It's honestly just hard to figure with the 6z improved and we haven't even gotten anything from the 12z suite yet.  And this is still outside of the scope of "lock".  I get that it's "disappointing" to see a run cut back 50% of totals.    But that's still fucking 8-12.   Like, what???

Amen brother!!!!

[mitchnick]

13 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That's all snow/frozen?

Yes

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

what we call it is semantics but the issue with what Chuck did there is by using a technicality to define that as a +nao then looking up all +nao -epo scenarios you’re probably getting mostly “true” +nao scenarios where this isn’t a “north based -nao block” over the top of Chucks “south based +nao”.  again not interested in a debate about what we should call things. 
 

All that said Chuck isn’t wrong that this setup is flawed for a MECS level snow.  The mid latitude longwave configuration is not ideal for a big snowstorm south of 40. The trough our west is an issue. But we have some things working for us we don’t have in every similar setup that gives us a shot. But the analogs to this pattern are more snowy to our north. That’s why I’ve been hesitant to get too excited. 
 

@Ji a 3-6” snow to ice should be a huge win. Look at the h5. It doesn’t matter what the models show on clown maps at 170 hours. You’re better than that, even though you like to come in here and pretend you’re not to vent your frustrations. But you know damn well that this pattern is not typical of a 20” snowstorm.  
 

Im not saying there’s not a chance at a big snow here.  We have some things working for us that are atypical and could argue a better outcome than usual in the general pattern. But it’s risky to assume a big snowstorm solution from a pattern that’s atypical of that level event.  Yes it’s unusual for the ensembles to be this consistent and show these totals. And yes the last time was 2016 but that storm was totally supported by the pattern. I’m more cautious here and would take a more modest snow event as a win. 

If we get the overrunning before the slp forms, that's what gives us a shot at the double digit outcomes, but we'll need both overrunning and the slp to contribute. Otherwise, it's a 3-6" or 8" best case.

[blizzardmeiser]

15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

what we call it is semantics but the issue with what Chuck did there is by using a technicality to define that as a +nao then looking up all +nao -epo scenarios you’re probably getting mostly “true” +nao scenarios where this isn’t a “north based -nao block” over the top of Chucks “south based +nao”.  again not interested in a debate about what we should call things. 
 

All that said Chuck isn’t wrong that this setup is flawed for a MECS level snow.  The mid latitude longwave configuration is not ideal for a big snowstorm south of 40. The trough our west is an issue. But we have some things working for us we don’t have in every similar setup that gives us a shot. But the analogs to this pattern are more snowy to our north. That’s why I’ve been hesitant to get too excited. 
 

@Ji a 3-6” snow to ice should be a huge win. Look at the h5. It doesn’t matter what the models show on clown maps at 170 hours. You’re better than that, even though you like to come in here and pretend you’re not to vent your frustrations. But you know damn well that this pattern is not typical of a 20” snowstorm.  
 

Im not saying there’s not a chance at a big snow here.  We have some things working for us that are atypical and could argue a better outcome than usual in the general pattern. But it’s risky to assume a big snowstorm solution from a pattern that’s atypical of that level event.  Yes it’s unusual for the ensembles to be this consistent and show these totals. And yes the last time was 2016 but that storm was totally supported by the pattern. I’m more cautious here and would take a more modest snow event as a win. 

Great summary. 3-6 should be a win for everyone. Do you still feel the bigger opportunity is after next week?

[adelphi_sky]

20 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Wow that's a beaut!!  How can anyone be  negative about that!!

I'm not in the dark blue. 

[frd]

16 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

 

what we call it is semantics but the issue with what Chuck did there is by using a technicality to define that as a +nao then looking up all +nao -epo scenarios you’re probably getting mostly “true” +nao scenarios where this isn’t a “north based -nao block” over the top of Chucks “south based +nao”.  again not interested in a debate about what we should call things. 
 

All that said Chuck isn’t wrong that this setup is flawed for a MECS level snow.  The mid latitude longwave configuration is not ideal for a big snowstorm south of 40. The trough our west is an issue. But we have some things working for us we don’t have in every similar setup that gives us a shot. But the analogs to this pattern are more snowy to our north. That’s why I’ve been hesitant to get too excited. 
 

@Ji a 3-6” snow to ice should be a huge win. Look at the h5. It doesn’t matter what the models show on clown maps at 170 hours. You’re better than that, even though you like to come in here and pretend you’re not to vent your frustrations. But you know damn well that this pattern is not typical of a 20” snowstorm.  
 

Im not saying there’s not a chance at a big snow here.  We have some things working for us that are atypical and could argue a better outcome than usual in the general pattern. But it’s risky to assume a big snowstorm solution from a pattern that’s atypical of that level event.  Yes it’s unusual for the ensembles to be this consistent and show these totals. And yes the last time was 2016 but that storm was totally supported by the pattern. I’m more cautious here and would take a more modest snow event as a win. 

Makes sense, @psuhoffman you still in the mindset of a decent later month , early March pattern ?  Anything you see currently have you thinking otherwise. 

I have not checked out the MJO recently, but the general indices look decent,  and hopefully we progress to a more typical blocking scenario that raises the bar in the lowlands and everywhere else as well.  

  

[frd]

-  AO day over day forecast decline has stopped for now. Middle of next week is at its lowest on this forecast grid,  right near the storm threat. Looking at the NAO its decling but never goes negative, however the loading pattern I believe is still in process. Would think a -NAO forecast should eventually show itself.     

 

 

[frd]

Here is the NAO forecast

 

[osfan24]

AO and NAO forecasts look worse now than they did. Hopefully, it reverts back.

[mitchnick]

19 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

AO and NAO forecasts look worse now than they did. Hopefully, it reverts back.

Those great forecasts were on the runs with a split of the PV thanks to a SSW. All the models have backed down from that so I doubt they come back without a return of the PV split/SSW, and that would be a miracle at this point.

[MountainGeek]

56 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

That's what I'm saying.  It's honestly just hard to figure with the 6z improved and we haven't even gotten anything from the 12z suite yet.  Even if the 12z shows disappointment, this is still outside of the scope of "lock".  I get that it's "disappointing" to see a run cut back 50% of totals.    But that's still fucking 8-12.   Like, what???

You must be new here.....

[Allsnow]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Those great forecasts were on the runs with a split of the PV thanks to a SSW. All the models have backed down from that so I doubt they come back without a return of the PV split/SSW, and that would be a miracle at this point.

Going to need to pin our hopes on the mjo and decaying block for 2nd half 

[Solution Man]

@stormtracker,are you warmed up?

[mappy]

3 minutes ago, MountainGeek said:

You must be new here.....

This would have been funnier had you wrote knew instead