February Medium/Long Range Thread

[mitchnick]

AI 18z run supports snow on the north side (N&W) of Baltimore this time, but it keeps switching back and forth between N&W and south into Central VA. 

It does show a very wet storm around the 12 and 13th, but is a little too warm south of the PA line, if even there. Plenty of time to go either way.

[Heisy]

AI 18z run supports snow on the north side (N&W) of Baltimore this time, but it keeps switching back and forth between N&W and south into Central VA. 
It does show a very wet storm around the 12 and 13th, but is a little too warm south of the PA line, if even there. Plenty of time to go either way.

Mitch this for the 5th?


.

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Mitch this for the 5th?


.

Yes...2 waves. One early on the 5th and another late 6th into 7th.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Yes...2 waves. One early on the 5th and another late 6th into 7th.

Start here

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501291800&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 hours ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs likes the period from day 10-14. Top map is total snowfall thru 240hrs and bottom map is 336hrs.

Surprising, because the 18z GEFS has a really strong -PNA/+NAO from hour 252->. Really, really rare to get snow at all in that pattern. 

[bncho]

SOLD AGAIN

[brooklynwx99]

the equatorward shift in the jet is really helping the -EPO

[CAPE]

On both the 0z EPS and GEFS, Feb 9-13 is the most likely window for winter weather to occur in the MA. Both suggest a storm around the 10th. Not much of anything prior to that.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z ensemble snow means, most/ all after Day 10....

[Heisy]

Stolen from our Philly boards.




.

[BristowWx]

34 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Stolen from our Philly boards.




.

That's known in some atmospheric circles as the "Squidward" pattern...not often seen

[WxUSAF]

38 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Stolen from our Philly boards.




.

I like big splits and I can not lie

You other weenies can’t deny

When the strat walks in with an ittybitty waist and a round thing in your face

You get COLD!  

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, brooklynwx99 said:

the equatorward shift in the jet is really helping the -EPO

An eastward jet extension would also help position the ridge further east, placing the downstream trough more in the central/eastern US. That would be favored as the MJO convection propagates away from the MC and into the western Pacific.

[Terpeast]

20 minutes ago, CAPE said:

An eastward jet extension would also help position the ridge further east, placing the downstream trough more in the central/eastern US. That would be favored as the MJO convection propagates away from the MC and into the western Pacific.

Given that the pac jet keeps trending stronger as it gets closer in time, there’s a good chance that it will. Especially if the mjo is weaker/faster.  

[Benjamn3]

This board is such an emotional roller coaster. Half yall need some of my Zoloft or some of my trees. Last time I checked yesterday morning I was getting my flip flops and board shorts out cussing why I didn’t take my summer diet seriously.

[CAPE]

25 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Given that the pac jet keeps trending stronger as it gets closer in time, there’s a good chance that it will. Especially if the mjo is weaker/faster.  

If the latest weeklies have a clue we will have quite a favorable h5 pattern for middle to latter part of the Month.

[CAPE]

There continue to be suggestions on the ensemble guidance that a NA block might be in the offing around mid month and beyond. As advertised on this panel there is a -AO/NAO, in conjunction with a -EPO.

 

[Heisy]

Hey Mitch





.

[mitchnick]

12 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Hey Mitch





.

I didn't post anything because the Euro site made it look much more tenuous at that time. I know it's hard to see, but the 0-line is north of Baltimore on this map and is moving north by 180hrs.

[psuhoffman]

26 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There continue to be suggestions on the ensemble guidance that a NA block might be in the offing around mid month and beyond. As advertised on this panel there is a -AO/NAO, in conjunction with a -EPO.

 

I see nothing that’s changed my mind that we get colder again around Feb 20

[psuhoffman]

To elaborate my confidence is based on 3 things. 
1. the analogs all suggested a colder snowier period between Feb 20-March 20

2. The AO had been in a very consistent cycle over the last 6 months and if you time it out it should be going negative again by Feb 20.  Persistence here matches the analogs 

3. When we bet a period of severe -AO/NAO like we had in early January it usually cycles again one more time after a relax. 
 

It doesn’t surprise me that guidance is now starting to hint at what “should” be coming. 

[frd]

31 minutes ago, CAPE said:

There continue to be suggestions on the ensemble guidance that a NA block might be in the offing around mid month and beyond. As advertised on this panel there is a -AO/NAO, in conjunction with a -EPO.

 

 

 

This is supported by lastest AO forecast. Also, there is a strong heat flux set to take place next week. Expecting to see a - NAM state by mid Feb. 

 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, frd said:

 

 

This is supported by lastest AO forecast. Also, there is a strong heat flux set to take place next week. Expecting to see a - NAM state by mid Feb. 

 

 

 

 

 

Also seeing the trough showing up again on the central pacific. If that combines with a -AO again I don’t care what h5 says the cold will press east. 

[CAPE]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Also seeing the trough showing up again on the central pacific. If that combines with a -AO again I don’t care what h5 says the cold will press east. 

Ready for repeat

[mitchnick]

27 minutes ago, frd said:

 

 

This is supported by lastest AO forecast. Also, there is a strong heat flux set to take place next week. Expecting to see a - NAM state by mid Feb. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[psuhoffman]

41 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Ready for repeat

It would actually be better if we got the trough centered a little further NW this time!  In a nino with juiced up STJ waves coming at us that same exact trough axis and blocking configuration would be perfect...but in a cold enso with less STJ we need everything displaced further west so that the weaker boundary waves are closer to us and not hitting New Orleans!  

[CAPE]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

It would actually be better if we got the trough centered a little further NW this time!  In a nino with juiced up STJ waves coming at us that same exact trough axis and blocking configuration would be perfect...but in a cold enso with less STJ we need everything displaced further west so that the weaker boundary waves are closer to us and not hitting New Orleans!  

Yeah if we get a similar pattern it's hard to imagine that massive southward displaced vortex would materialize again.

[Terpeast]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

It would actually be better if we got the trough centered a little further NW this time!  In a nino with juiced up STJ waves coming at us that same exact trough axis and blocking configuration would be perfect...but in a cold enso with less STJ we need everything displaced further west so that the weaker boundary waves are closer to us and not hitting New Orleans!  

Ens trying to poke that AK ridge just west, like eastern aleutians and western AK. This would work better than the AK ridge getting pushed to the Yukon

[Heisy]

12z cmc looks more like the AI…let’s see if that wave near the 4 corners can produce something as it heads east


.

[Heisy]

Temps are warmer than Ai, but it does have a somewhat similar progression


.