February Medium/Long Range Thread

[frd]

8 minutes ago, H2O said:

Sweet. I’ll enjoy my warm rain and be happy for those that get snow based off one run 6 days out. 
 

Am I doing this right?  Making final outcome statements when it’s still unknown what will happen?

Maybe this trends South. Still a lot of time. 

 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

6Z AI is WONDERFUL!!!!

1st flakes start before 12z Tiesday and don't end until just before 13z Wednesday. 

Then there's a second wave that comes in on Thursday that's probably a 2-4".

Then Saturday has another event but we lose 850's after a modest accumulation. 

[ravensrule]

53 minutes ago, bncho said:

It was nice seeing snow to rain.

 

You need to calm down. 

[Terpeast]

Just now, mitchnick said:

1st flakes start before 12z Tiesday and don't end until just before 13z Wednesday. 

Then there's a second wave that comes in on Thursday that's probably a 2-4".

Then Saturday has another event but we lose 850's after a modest accumulation. 

Looks like we want to root for an earlier start (or the first wave to be dominant) when we still have the thermals for a most/all snow event

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

1st flakes start before 12z Tiesday and don't end until just before 13z Wednesday. 

Then there's a second wave that comes in on Thursday that's probably a 2-4".

Then Saturday has another event but we lose 850's after a modest accumulation. 

Nice hopefully calm some nerves to still have some good runs out there

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6Z AI is WONDERFUL!!!!

waiting for game time

[mitchnick]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Looks like we want to root for an earlier start (or the first wave to be dominant) when we still have the thermals for a most/all snow event

Thermals (850's) thru central VA  are fine from Monday until Saturday between 6z and 12z. Based on slp locations, I  would expect all levels to be fine as well. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Thermals (850's) thru central VA  are fine from Monday until Saturday between 6z and 12z. Based on slp locations, I  would expect all levels to be fine as well. 

To clarify, they do move north so Saturday, VA into Central MD have lost thermals between 0z and 6z. But Saturday is not a big event.

[winter_warlock]

17 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6Z AI is WONDERFUL!!!!

Site I use don't even have the 6z AI yet lol how good was it?

[87storms]

Sweet. I’ll enjoy my warm rain and be happy for those that get snow based off one run 6 days out. 
 
Am I doing this right?  Making final outcome statements when it’s still unknown what will happen?

There’s gonna be moving goalposts next week given there’s no big hecs storm to long track. Looks like several distinct waves that could wobble on the models from run to run.

[mitchnick]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

Site I use don't even have the 6z AI yet lol how good was it?

The precip amounts are really hard to judge totals because the range on the maps is huge. All I can say confidentially is that it's at least 6", and that would be at 10:1 ratios. 850's are cold on the AI, close to -8 up here and between -4 and -8 south of the PA border until around DC, the -4 to 0 into Central VA.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

The precip amounts are really hard to judge totals because the range on the maps is huge. All I can say confidentially is that it's at least 6", and that would be at 10:1 ratios. 850's are cold on the AI, close to -8 up here and between -4 and -8 south of the PA border until around DC, the -4 to 0 into Central VA.

We got very burned in DC riding the AI on the last event which had like a zillion runs in a row showing a snowstorm for us.  The warmer/north models slapped it around.  

[mitchnick]

6z Ukie ensembles improved over 0z run from Fredericksburg north.

[mitchnick]

Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

We got very burned in DC riding the AI on the last event which had like a zillion runs in a row showing a snowstorm for us.  The warmer/north models slapped it around.  

None are perfect all the time. It's hit or miss. I'm just reporting what it shows and not saying it’s going to be right or better than any other model.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

We got very burned in DC riding the AI on the last event which had like a zillion runs in a row showing a snowstorm for us.  The warmer/north models slapped it around.  

This is exactly why I keep saying we need wiggle room by being on the north side of the heaviest snows modeled a week out. We have no wiggle room left with the euro op/ens, but it’s on its own at least for now. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

None are perfect all the time. It's hit or miss. I'm just reporting what it shows and not saying it’s going to be right or better than any other model.

Hopefully it’s right this time!!!

[T. August]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

It’s a general 5-7” through the area with a little more to come. I feel like we should be happy with that lol.

[stormtracker]

52 minutes ago, H2O said:

Sweet. I’ll enjoy my warm rain and be happy for those that get snow based off one run 6 days out. 
 

Am I doing this right?  Making final outcome statements when it’s still unknown what will happen?

I dont understand what’s going on in here.  The 6z GFS improved and shows a double digit snow and this thread and reactions seem anywhere from meh to doom/gloom. What am I missing here?

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I dont understand what’s going on in here.  These 6z GFS improved and shows a double digit snow and this thread and reactions seem anywhere from meh to doom/gloom. What am I missing here?

That some people are completely irrational when it comes to snow. It’s sad. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I dont understand what’s going on in here.  These 6z GFS improved and shows a double digit snow and this thread and reactions seem anywhere from meh to doom/gloom. What am I missing here?

12z euro-18z gfs blend from yesterday is now the floor. Anything less than 15-20” is a fail. 

[Scraff]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I dont understand what’s going on in here.  These 6z GFS improved and shows a double digit snow and this thread and reactions seem anywhere from meh to doom/gloom. What am I missing here?

Not enough wiggle room? I can’t figure it out either. However, the Scraff Beer Fridge Index looks great! I’ve given myself more wiggle room by clearing out that upper shelf ginger ale box. Should be just enough room to add 12-15 more beers. 

[ravensrule]

Just now, Scraff said:

Not enough wiggle room? I can’t figure it out either. However, the Scraff Beer Fridge Index looks great! I’ve given myself more wiggle room by clearing out that upper shelf ginger ale box. Should be just enough room to add 12-15 more beers. 

Do you bring that fridge to AA meetings?. 

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

That some people are completely irrational when it comes to snow. It’s sad. 

1 person lol

[ravensrule]

Just now, Chris78 said:

1 person lol

Lol, he is definitely the worst. Unfortunately there are others though. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

8 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I dont understand what’s going on in here.  These 6z GFS improved and shows a double digit snow and this thread and reactions seem anywhere from meh to doom/gloom. What am I missing here?

The 0z euro gave us snow but then changed us over to rain for the stronger of the waves instead of the 12z/18z runs yesterday that kept us right on the good side of the boundary for all of it.  
 

Everything still on the table IMO

[LeesburgWx]

All I’m saying is, idk why we continue to do this to ourselves on storms 8-10+ days out. We know 95% of the time, what the outcome is going to be..,

[mitchnick]

AI qpf main event

[bncho]

I suppose I'll lighten the mood by posting the precip maps on the Euro AI. 
There's an additional .2 QPF in addition to the map.

[mitchnick]

AI Thursday qpf

[TSSN+]

2 hours ago, mappy said:

Sucks to be you

Hope like Georgetown it is rain only over his city.