February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Ji]

Weren’t you just posting on your FB page about 2016 and model runs look so good etc…

I said I had not seen models/ensembles scream like that since 2016 for a storm

I mean the eps mean was 9-10 inches

[aldie 22]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Not much. 4-6?

Most homes put the bar in the basement you put yours on the roof lol dude we probably aren't getting a foot out of this try and level set a bit. Remember I know where you live if you cant stay calm I'm dropping a flaming bag of dog poo on your porch

[Chris78]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Not much. 4-6? We also don’t know what it does in round 2 but I’m assuming ice as surface temps are still in upper 20s at 144 hours

So 4 - 6 with the precursor on Monday and the main event looks like ice? 

Can you post the surface map at 144

[Ji]

So 4 - 6 with the precursor on Monday and the main event looks like ice? 
Can you post the surface map at 144

Sure

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

I said I had not seen models/ensembles scream like that since 2016 for a storm

I mean the eps mean was 9-10 inches

Weather53 is gonna have a field day 

[Ji]

[Ji]

Most homes put the bar in the basement you put yours on the roof lol dude we probably aren't getting a foot out of this try and level set a bit. Remember I know where you live if you cant stay calm I'm dropping a flaming bag of dog poo on your porch

You are more pessimistic than me and even you were excited yesterday as I noted

[Ji]

Weather53 is gonna have a field day 

So is chick

[mappy]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Sucks to be you

[Fozz]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

I said I had not seen models/ensembles scream like that since 2016 for a storm

I mean the eps mean was 9-10 inches

Yeah but without the clean block we had in 2016 or 2010, we can’t really get too excited this far out.

[aldie 22]

Just now, Ji said:

You are more pessimistic than me and even you were excited yesterday as I noted

I always root harder when the season is coming to a close plus my annual work trip out west...I want to get as much as possible before then. Hey at least psu and mitch look to score 

[North Balti Zen]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Looks great! Good reporting Ji, thanks for this!

[CAPE]

23 minutes ago, Ji said:

The 6z euro looks pretty bad. We may see very little snow next week

Keep an eye on the area of confluence to the north and the strength of surface HP. We want that 1037 high over southern Canada like the 12z run yesterday, not a 1030 sliding off the NE coast.

[Ji]

Yeah but without the clean block we had in 2016 or 2010, we can’t really get too excited this far out.

We have a solid -ao and nao for the storm

[Chris78]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

We have a solid -ao and nao for the storm

Is the euro still slower than the GFS? Gfs looks a half day earlier with the precursor and main event

 

[CAPE]

Just now, Ji said:

We have a solid -ao and nao for the storm

The block is just beginning to get established at that point. We need some good wave timing up top, and not too much amplification of the shortwave to our SW.

[aldie 22]

There have been various model runs from all of them showing anything from suppressed to flush hit to north personally I still think all options are on the table but maybe the suppressed option has diminished more than the other two. I'll probably still drive to north jersey to be safe lol

[Ji]

Is the euro still slower than the GFS? Gfs looks a half day earlier with the precursor and main event
 

Euro started Monday 18z when did gfs start

[Ji]

https://x.com/burgwx/status/1887109805694656814?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA

[bncho]

6 hours ago, ravensrule said:

It will be worth it. Trust me. 

It was nice seeing snow to rain.

 

[mitchnick]

6z Euro/Eps only go out 144hrs as most know. 6z looks better that 0z with only a slight shave off the southern portion.

[snowmagnet]

27 minutes ago, Ji said:

I said I had not seen models/ensembles scream like that since 2016 for a storm

I mean the eps mean was 9-10 inches

Shouldn't we rely more on Ensembles this far out?

[Ji]

6z Euro/Eps only go out 144hrs as most know. 6z looks better that 0z with only a slight shave off the southern portion.

How is Ai bundy looking ?

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ji said:

How is Ai bundy looking ?

Not out until 8. But the 0z that Will posted was Grrrrreat!

[WxUSAF]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Euro started Monday 18z when did gfs start

 

7 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z Euro/Eps only go out 144hrs as most know. 6z looks better that 0z with only a slight shave off the southern portion.

Gfs was between 12-18z Monday now. I’d wager that’s a large part of what the EPS is reflecting. Earlier start. Kinda crazy when we started watching this event, it was evening of the 12th into the 13th.

[mitchnick]

9 minutes ago, Ji said:

How is Ai bundy looking ?

Since we're now talking less than 5 days before start time, if the 6z AI comes in looking close to the 0z run or better, imho you can start getting cocky again about a big event.

[MDScienceTeacher]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS: a blend of the GFS and EURO works well for most of us...we will see.

We never get blend when we need the blend.  More often than not one model is right and the other is wrong and we watch painstakingly as one moves toward the other.

Can we please just get a blend here the one time?

[H2O]

Sweet. I’ll enjoy my warm rain and be happy for those that get snow based off one run 6 days out. 
 

Am I doing this right?  Making final outcome statements when it’s still unknown what will happen?

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 hour ago, Ji said:

That’s pretty good, I’ll take frozen over heavy rain and 33.  

[mitchnick]

6Z AI is WONDERFUL!!!!