February Medium/Long Range Thread

[weatherkyle]

2 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Something about this run was off - duration wasn't as good. Couldn't really spin up the coastal. Someone smarter will be able to say why - that's what kept this from looking as good but not better given the better precursor

day 5.5.  I can't imagine the storm evolution is nailed down in any way.  

[North Balti Zen]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This would cause a full blown subforum civil war

It's the same as it has been for six years running - we've missed up here pretty much every time - why should this be different?

[NorthArlington101]

CMC looks good at 159 - getting raked at 162

[stormtracker]

Actually I'll wait for the CMC and the GFS, might be something on the horizon on the latter

[bncho]

Something is happening at 198...

[Fozz]

Just now, North Balti Zen said:

It's the same as it has been for six years running - we've missed up here pretty much every time - why should this be different?

tbh since we are in a +NAO, I’d rather be too far north 6 days out than with MECS totals close to the mix line.

We’ve got plenty of time. I can’t let superstitions get the best of me. Learned that lesson a month ago.

[Ji]

The gfs had way more energy in tn valley at 18z. I think it likes to that front runner stuff too much which never pans out

[Terpeast]

Possible reason why GFS went south was it trended stronger with the EPO ridge and is also flatter with the overall flow. While the euro also has that EPO ridge, it digs the trough more to the west of us allowing the storm to consolidate and/or amplify. The gfs has a few weaker waves along the flatter boundary. Both give us good results, and I think there will likely be more amplitude and less suppression in mid-February than January. 

[North Balti Zen]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

This will be like the 4th storm in 6 years to do this if the GFS holds 

Just set a watch by it, really. 

[mitchnick]

Gfs is probably overdoing the 1st wave which then pulls the boundary south. No other model has it that I recall.

[Ji]

The 00z gfs had none of this

[stormtracker]

So some light snows enter the area on the 13th....just trying to see if it can make it up to us

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, Ji said:

The 00z gfs had none of this

Yeah this run is starting to smell like an egg burp. If the Euro doesn't do it later, then it just may be.

[stormtracker]

Seems to be moving NNE and about to get heavier greens over us...but thermals are getting dicey...it's snow for now

[Ji]

Gfs is probably overdoing the 1st wave which then pulls the boundary south. No other model has it that I recall.

That’s what I said but you said it better

[NorthArlington101]

Guessing this won't do it for some of us but here is the CMC

[stormtracker]

Yeah, it's a NNE mover, but thermals crumble, so it's....something other than snow after the initial batch

[HighStakes]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Guessing this won't do it for some of us but here is the CMC

I'll take anything I can get!

[nj2va]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Guessing this won't do it for some of us but here is the CMC

Looks great.  That’s almost half of climo in MBY, lol

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Yeah this run is starting to smell like an egg burp. If the Euro doesn't do it later, then it just may be.

I know this is an IMBY game but the GFS gave someone 20" of snow within like ~75 miles of you. I'd be OK with that at hrs 130-160

[Scraff]

I hope the night crew brings it home. I expect to wake up to 50 pages of F bombs after the Euro run obliterates the DMV. 

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, Scraff said:

I hope the night crew brings it home. I expect to wake up to 50 pages of F bombs after the Euro run obliterates the DMV. 

We can only hope!!!

[mitchnick]

Won't be surprised if Gem has a round 2.

[NorthArlington101]

3 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Won't be surprised if Gem has a round 2.

yep - snowing by around hr200. Looks more icy/sleety then snowy

[Ji]

Won't be surprised if Gem has a round 2.

Maybe it’s just all one big long duration dump

[WVclimo]

GFS brings more snow here on Thursday than Tuesday.

[87storms]

Gfs is probably overdoing the 1st wave which then pulls the boundary south. No other model has it that I recall.

Biggest issue I see is that each wave in this pattern looks a bit weak. The bigger potential might be later in the week

[Ji]

Biggest issue I see is that each wave in this pattern looks a bit weak. The bigger potential might be later in the week

Central Va got 20 inches lol

[87storms]

Central Va got 20 inches lol

There’s just not really a discernible surface low. Guess it’s all overrunning or a stalled front with multiple waves type of a situation

[North Balti Zen]

11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I know this is an IMBY game but the GFS gave someone 20" of snow within like ~75 miles of you. I'd be OK with that at hrs 130-160

Let me be clear, for six years that supposition has NOT worked up this way.  You can keep typing it, but please understand that we’ve seen this for years and years now. So, yeah, this kind of hiccup raises some eyebrows up my way.