bncho Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Something is happening at 198... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, North Balti Zen said: It's the same as it has been for six years running - we've missed up here pretty much every time - why should this be different? tbh since we are in a +NAO, I’d rather be too far north 6 days out than with MECS totals close to the mix line. We’ve got plenty of time. I can’t let superstitions get the best of me. Learned that lesson a month ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The gfs had way more energy in tn valley at 18z. I think it likes to that front runner stuff too much which never pans out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Possible reason why GFS went south was it trended stronger with the EPO ridge and is also flatter with the overall flow. While the euro also has that EPO ridge, it digs the trough more to the west of us allowing the storm to consolidate and/or amplify. The gfs has a few weaker waves along the flatter boundary. Both give us good results, and I think there will likely be more amplitude and less suppression in mid-February than January. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: This will be like the 4th storm in 6 years to do this if the GFS holds Just set a watch by it, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gfs is probably overdoing the 1st wave which then pulls the boundary south. No other model has it that I recall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 The 00z gfs had none of this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 So some light snows enter the area on the 13th....just trying to see if it can make it up to us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Ji said: The 00z gfs had none of this Yeah this run is starting to smell like an egg burp. If the Euro doesn't do it later, then it just may be. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Seems to be moving NNE and about to get heavier greens over us...but thermals are getting dicey...it's snow for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gfs is probably overdoing the 1st wave which then pulls the boundary south. No other model has it that I recall.That’s what I said but you said it better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Guessing this won't do it for some of us but here is the CMC 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 5 Author Share Posted February 5 Yeah, it's a NNE mover, but thermals crumble, so it's....something other than snow after the initial batch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Guessing this won't do it for some of us but here is the CMC I'll take anything I can get! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: Guessing this won't do it for some of us but here is the CMC Looks great. That’s almost half of climo in MBY, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: Yeah this run is starting to smell like an egg burp. If the Euro doesn't do it later, then it just may be. I know this is an IMBY game but the GFS gave someone 20" of snow within like ~75 miles of you. I'd be OK with that at hrs 130-160 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 I hope the night crew brings it home. I expect to wake up to 50 pages of F bombs after the Euro run obliterates the DMV. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 1 minute ago, Scraff said: I hope the night crew brings it home. I expect to wake up to 50 pages of F bombs after the Euro run obliterates the DMV. We can only hope!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Won't be surprised if Gem has a round 2. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 3 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Won't be surprised if Gem has a round 2. yep - snowing by around hr200. Looks more icy/sleety then snowy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Won't be surprised if Gem has a round 2.Maybe it’s just all one big long duration dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 GFS brings more snow here on Thursday than Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Gfs is probably overdoing the 1st wave which then pulls the boundary south. No other model has it that I recall.Biggest issue I see is that each wave in this pattern looks a bit weak. The bigger potential might be later in the week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Biggest issue I see is that each wave in this pattern looks a bit weak. The bigger potential might be later in the weekCentral Va got 20 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Central Va got 20 inches lolThere’s just not really a discernible surface low. Guess it’s all overrunning or a stalled front with multiple waves type of a situation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: I know this is an IMBY game but the GFS gave someone 20" of snow within like ~75 miles of you. I'd be OK with that at hrs 130-160 Let me be clear, for six years that supposition has NOT worked up this way. You can keep typing it, but please understand that we’ve seen this for years and years now. So, yeah, this kind of hiccup raises some eyebrows up my way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 There’s just not really a discernible surface low. Guess it’s all overrunning or a stalled front with multiple waves type of a situationIf we had a strong low we might run the risk of a cutter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 4 minutes ago, North Balti Zen said: Let me be clear, for six years that supposition has NOT worked up this way. You can keep typing it, but please understand that we’ve seen this for years and years now. So, yeah, this kind of hiccup raises some eyebrows up my way. And for 5,000 years before that, the north trend has always worked. In general, your area is always favored over southern/DC. Hopefully everyone in the forum is happy. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Ukie is a miss to central VA but the evolution is different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 5 Share Posted February 5 Hard to believe these operational runs in light of the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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