February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Allsnow]

10 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

AI is back. Still a bit light on qpf, but that'll surely change over the next few runs I bet.

Thank you 

[SnowenOutThere]

22 minutes ago, anotherman said:

19 minutes ago, bncho said:

you try to be a downer but the threat is so good your having trouble saying something "bad"

19 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

All eggs are in this basket there is no turning back now lololol

19 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

15 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

what?

My bad, I meant to say all aboard the hype train! I guess Ji must've gotten into my account somehow. In all serious though was just trying to mitigate the "its so over" cycle when the models only show a foot before the ultimate comeback. 

[Terpeast]

23 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said:

I am sorry for being lazy.. did the -epo get lost completely on both models? I am curious what the rest of the month past the awesome looking Tuesday holds.. Hard to even think about! 

 

Gefs still has it, a bit weaker but still ridgy over AK. Eps may be trying to lose the epo ridge too quickly, but we shall see with couple more days. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, ravensrule said:

I wish it was 11:00 pm already. At least i have the Caps game to keep me entertained for now. 

I know right lol. 

[MillvilleWx]

Hmmmmm, we may have something here ladies and gents 

I am cautiously optimistic this go around. Should be a fun week+ 

[Ji]

18z euro at 144 looked ready

[87storms]

14 minutes ago, MillvilleWx said:

Hmmmmm, we may have something here ladies and gents 

I am cautiously optimistic this go around. Should be a fun week+ 

Fine, I'm buying a jeep this weekend.

[87storms]

24 minutes ago, Ji said:

18z euro at 144 looked ready

It didn't even get warm the last couple days.  Snow is incoming soon.  It just doesn't want to be a lame winter this year.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

It didn't even get warm the last couple days.  Snow is incoming soon.  It just doesn't want to be a lame winter this year.

Remember when the Euro had mid 60s forecast tomorrow?

[bncho]

this seems like our best opportunity for a whopper in a while. seems is the key word here.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

AI is back. Still a bit light on qpf, but that'll surely change over the next few runs I bet.

I’m not disagreeing but just opining how we kinda set ourselves up emotionally for the fall. And I do this too, this is a self reflection also. But 10 days ago when February looked like a torch we were talking about could we eek out anymore snow this winter.  Now we’re gonna act like a run with a 3-6” snowstorm is blah. Given our snow climo any run that shows accumulating snow is a win lol.  But I totally get it. 
 

BTW…I finally had a chance to dig into the crazy GEFS run. The 10” mean day 10 is actually from two waves.  The one the op dropped a MECS from and another right after. That follow up wave is low key gaining support on guidance just hasn’t shown up big on any op runs yet. 
 

But it’s worth noting that big mean isn’t all from the one storm which does kinda temper things “some”.  The op runs of the euro and gfs were kinda the max potential solutions. It’s good that the ops show that but it might not be the most likely outcome yet.  I don’t want people to get themselves to a place where if we end up with a 5” snow they’re acting like it’s a fail. 

[Kevin Reilly]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

this seems like our best opportunity for a whopper in a while. seems is the key word here.

 

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

this seems like our best opportunity for a whopper in a while. seems is the key word here.

[aldie 22]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not disagreeing but just opining how we kinda set ourselves up emotionally for the fall. And I do this too, this is a self reflection also. But 10 days ago when February looked like a torch we were talking about could we eek out anymore snow this winter.  Now we’re gonna act like a run with a 3-6” snowstorm is blah. Given our snow climo any run that shows accumulating snow is a win lol.  But I totally get it. 
 

BTW…I finally had a chance to dig into the crazy GEFS run. The 10” mean day 10 is actually from two waves.  The one the op dropped a MECS from and another right after. That follow up wave is low key gaining support on guidance just hasn’t shown up big on any op runs yet. 
 

But it’s worth noting that big mean isn’t all from the one storm which does kinda temper things “some”.  The op runs of the euro and gfs were kinda the max potential solutions. It’s good that the ops show that but it might not be the most likely outcome yet.  I don’t want people to get themselves to a place where if we end up with a 5” snow they’re acting like it’s a fail. 

People = Ji

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, Terpeast said:

Gefs still has it, a bit weaker but still ridgy over AK. Eps may be trying to lose the epo ridge too quickly, but we shall see with couple more days. 

If I had to choose epo or AO/NAO I’ll take the latter. EPO is more correlated to cold but the AO and NAO is more correlated to snow.  Especially later Feb into March. Frankly maybe trying a wetter pattern with blocking is the way to go.  If the epo ao nao all go negative again it might just be a repeat of January. Cold but mostly dry.  This would be warmer but way more active but with a suppressed storm track. 

[Ji]

Anything less than six would be a complete disaster

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

Anything less than six would be a complete disaster

Life must be difficult for you 

[Terpeast]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

If I had to choose epo or AO/NAO I’ll take the latter. EPO is more correlated to cold but the AO and NAO is more correlated to snow.  Especially later Feb into March. Frankly maybe trying a wetter pattern with blocking is the way to go.  If the epo ao nao all go negative again it might just be a repeat of January. Cold but mostly dry.  This would be warmer but way more active but with a suppressed storm track. 

Good points, and yes both ens have -ao/-nao in spades

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Anything less than six would be a complete disaster

[Ji]

Life must be difficult for you 

It’s all relative. It depends on the storm you’re chasing. If we got six on Saturday, I’ll be a ecstatic.

[NorthArlington101]

[bncho]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

How do you access this panel?

[jaydreb]

Weatherbell meteogram.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Anything more than 2-3" with the pattern would be a blessing imo

Usually in the medium-long range you want to see a negative-500mb trough. That it is mid-Winter makes a little less so, but I still don't trust borderline conditions at this timerange without +PNA or something stable like that, just based on experience from the last 10+ years.  A big score of 6-12"+ would be an anomaly with the coming 500mb pattern. 

[T. August]

Icon is a hit. Looks like 6”+. Not done yet.

edit: like 6-10”

[Fozz]

I’ve got lots of catching up to do.

Is it really going to snow? Ive seen the runs for a MECS next Tuesday and feel doubtful. Is this a legit shot?

[bncho]

Just now, Fozz said:

I’ve got lots of catching up to do.

Is it really going to snow? Ive seen the runs for a MECS next Tuesday and feel doubtful. Is this a legit shot?

welp, we're pretty sure this is a good shot, and it'll probably snow. ensembles have gone wild.

whether it comes to fruition is different.

[winter_warlock]

4 minutes ago, T. August said:

Icon is a hit. Looks like 6”+. Not done yet.

edit: like 6-10”

6-10 total when done?

[Maestrobjwa]

58 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m not disagreeing but just opining how we kinda set ourselves up emotionally for the fall. And I do this too, this is a self reflection also. But 10 days ago when February looked like a torch we were talking about could we eek out anymore snow this winter.  Now we’re gonna act like a run with a 3-6” snowstorm is blah. Given our snow climo any run that shows accumulating snow is a win lol.  But I totally get it. 
 

BTW…I finally had a chance to dig into the crazy GEFS run. The 10” mean day 10 is actually from two waves.  The one the op dropped a MECS from and another right after. That follow up wave is low key gaining support on guidance just hasn’t shown up big on any op runs yet. 
 

But it’s worth noting that big mean isn’t all from the one storm which does kinda temper things “some”.  The op runs of the euro and gfs were kinda the max potential solutions. It’s good that the ops show that but it might not be the most likely outcome yet.  I don’t want people to get themselves to a place where if we end up with a 5” snow they’re acting like it’s a fail. 

When ya have 7 days to go and you have rare model agreement look so good at that range, I can't help but wondering what the fail scenario would be. Since you're good at mapping those out...go 

[T. August]

1 minute ago, winter_warlock said:

6-10 total when done?

From what I can tell. There could be a little more at the end but we do get close to losing 850s

[stormtracker]

And we're off....GFS running.  May the odds be in our favor