February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

12z GEFS with a better look in the NA at the end- Scandi ridge poking into GL with lower heights developing towards 50-50. EPS similar. Still need that shift in the Pacific.

EPS showing cold enough towards the end of the run

 

[mitchnick]

AI still threatening for the 5th and 6th, though it keeps changing here and there. All I'll say is that it looks like most in the forum gets snow at different times. Probably light to moderate at best. Too hard to parse through 3 separate maps to figure it out. Wait for TT or WxBell. 

[mitchnick]

AI has the 2/12 event. Definitely starts as snow probably DC north but likely ends as something else south of PA line, maybe further north from thateven. Again, wait for TT/WxBell. 

End of the run has a trough in the east. 

[Heisy]

AI still threatening for the 5th and 6th, though it keeps changing here and there. All I'll say is that it looks like most in the forum gets snow at different times. Probably light to moderate at best. Too hard to parse through 3 separate maps to figure it out. Wait for TT or WxBell. 

Boundary event like this will be shaky on modeling this far out. Impossible.


.

[Terpeast]

One notable thing I'm seeing on modeling now is -EPO has trended stronger in the medium-long range, even compared to 0z/6z this morning. Something to watch for when the cold gets back far enough east instead of staying to the west.

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

At 360hrs, it's loading up for another overrunning event, but this is a little warmer to start, but not by much.

Getting the feeling that we should enjoy the next week or so. Backloaded winter with substantial tracking inoming?

[mitchnick]

Today's Eps weekly MJO mean forecast. Would be nice if the MJO did just this and let our luck rest on something else.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/mofc_multi_mjo_family_index?base_time=202501290000

[mitchnick]

Eps with the best snowfall mean of the 12z runs.

[aldie 22]

Poor Chuck, his one or two runs of the GFS led him astray on his warm call

[mitchnick]

6 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

Poor Chuck, his one or two runs of the GFS led him astray on his warm call

Thanks for the jinx. 

[Maestrobjwa]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Thanks for the jinx. 

You truly live and die by each and every model run don't you? Lol

[brooklynwx99]

lol how predictable

[psuhoffman]

12 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

lol how predictable

In fairness it trended warmer for the first 10 days of Feb from 1-2 weeks ago. But now fits a more logical progression 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

1 hour ago, aldie 22 said:

Poor Chuck, his one or two runs of the GFS led him astray on his warm call

I said yesterday the EPS was probably closer. 

It's probably not going to snow for the next 15+ days though..

64 in DC today.. -PNA patterns overperform for warmth here.. that's my point

[bncho]

Feb 6 wave is a little warmer on 18z GFS. Baltimore and north is where the rain-mix line is @ 177 hours

[mitchnick]

58 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You truly live and die by each and every model run don't you? Lol

Ahh...No! Aldie and I have been posting on these boards for 20+ years and bust each other's chops now and then.

[mitchnick]

18z Gfs has the 2/12 storm but a day or so earlier.

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gfs has the 2/12 storm but a day or so earlier.

 

[ravensrule]

47 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Ahh...No! Aldie and I have been posting on these boards for 20+ years and bust each other's chops now and then.

I have known you since you were in diapers.... adult diapers that is. 

[BristowWx]

1 hour ago, Maestrobjwa said:

You truly live and die by each and every model run don't you? Lol

I think we all do.  It affects my mood.  I’m sure no one on here is like that

[aldie 22]

26 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gfs has the 2/12 storm but a day or so earlier.

So 2/11?

[bncho]

SOLD

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

27 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

I have known you since you were in diapers.... adult diapers that is. 

Get off my lawn, you damned trick-or-treaters!!!

[stormtracker]

27 minutes ago, bncho said:

SOLD

only 57 more runs to go

[mitchnick]

35 minutes ago, aldie 22 said:

So 2/11?

If I  said 2/11, JI would have expected a second storm on 2/12.

[mitchnick]

18z Gefs likes the period from day 10-14. Top map is total snowfall thru 240hrs and bottom map is 336hrs.

[bncho]

6 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

18z Gefs likes the period from day 10-14. Top map is total snowfall thru 240hrs and bottom map is 336hrs.

That's a huge ass signal. Winter isn't over yet.

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

 

If it looks like that 48 hours out I’ll feel confident…..

 

That I’ll get another big snow and 95 might get a slushy inch. 
 

JK….kinda 

[Fozz]

If only that sweet MECS wasn’t 300 hrs away

[psuhoffman]

Without blocking storms tend to trend NW. With blocking not so much. We saw both phenomena this season.