NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, HighStakes said: I guess the Saturday system is getting ignored and lost in the shuffle. think that one gets a thread Thursday morning after it's cousin storm passes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, mitchnick said: It only goes out to 168hrs. Here's the map. That will win for us 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 lol you’re north of the extreme mid level firehose Im talking about on this run too. But I’d be suspect of those crazy totals down in central VA as there’s very likely a mid level warm layer associated with the strong SW h7 winds partially responsible for that crazy precip band. The gfs won’t see it at this range. Remember places in central VA expected 18” before PD2 and got 8” of sleet instead. This seems like a pretty simple set up.Abundant gulf moisture attacking cold air. How come we don’t get this more 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, Ji said: This seems like a pretty simple set up. Abundant gulf moisture attacking cold air. How come we don’t get this more we do.. just like once every 7-9 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Happy hour has certainly delivered today. Waiting for the GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, MDScienceTeacher said: we do.. just like once every 7-9 years. 9 years ago this winter since the 2016 storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, Ji said: This seems like a pretty simple set up. Abundant gulf moisture attacking cold air. How come we don’t get this more Something’s been missing 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Gfs-euro blend seems acceptable 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You guys should know by now not mention plans that you have on days it could snow. Because I mean.... I have plans for the symphony at Shenandoah University on Sat the 15th. Including Tchaikovsky's Violin Concerto in D major, Op. 35. I hope I am heading there on cross country ski's. I posted this because I know you are into the symphony as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 minutes ago, mitchnick said: It only goes out to 168hrs. Here's the map. The AI has me down in the dumps 4 runs in a row pretty far south the latest would have been a hit for this sub forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
katabatic Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 27 minutes ago, dailylurker said: This reminds me of that gfs run about a week before the 2016 monster. Wow! What a fun run. LFG Might not have to haul our asses up to the Tug to get a big one (let's hope) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: I have plans for the symphony at Shenandoah University on Sat the 15th. Including Tchaikovsky's Violin Concerto in D major, Op. 35. I hope I am heading there on cross country ski's. I posted this because I know you are into the symphony as well. Hey I didn't know you were a music nerd! See me in the forum green room otherwise known as the banter thread Really like that concerto too! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, Allsnow said: The AI has me down in the dumps 4 runs in a row pretty far south the latest would have been a hit for this sub forum Forget the AI outside of 3 or 4 days. Seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs-euro blend seems acceptable To paraphrase Mr. Darcy in "Pride and Prejudice"...it is tolerable, I suppose! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: 9 years ago this winter since the 2016 storm. I mean it is almost like clock work. 83, 93, 96, 03, 10, 16, 2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, MDScienceTeacher said: I mean it is almost like clock work. 83, 93, 96, 03, 10, 16, 2? We're on the high end here...the "we're due" index is pretty high!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: I mean it is almost like clock work. 83, 93, 96, 03, 10, 16, 2? We’re all wanting a list like this: La Nina: 1996, 2025 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, mitchnick said: Forget the AI outside of 3 or 4 days. Seriously. Still the 12z AI would be the nightmare lol scenario for those in the same snow hole that’s been the last 8 years. 3 waves go north and one south leaving a comical snow hole over guess where! I think it should at least be a cautionary tale that nothing is in the bag yet. 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Scarlet Pimpernel said: We're on the high end here...the "we're due" index is pretty high!!! I know it doesnt work this way, but t way I look at is every year we dont get a HECS.. the higher the chances the next year. It is Weenie statistics. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Still the 12z AI would be the nightmare lol scenario for those in the same snow hole that’s been the last 8 years. 3 waves go north and one south leaving a comical snow hole over guess where! I think it should at least be a cautionary tale that nothing is in the bag yet. Gets shoved south because of the TPV sweep. It’s something to watch as it’s still 7-8 days out but it’s not like we haven’t had that issue in the last 8 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Still the 12z AI would be the nightmare lol scenario for those in the same snow hole that’s been the last 8 years. 3 waves go north and one south leaving a comical snow hole over guess where! I think it should at least be a cautionary tale that nothing is in the bag yet. where? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Still the 12z AI would be the nightmare lol scenario for those in the same snow hole that’s been the last 8 years. 3 waves go north and one south leaving a comical snow hole over guess where! I think it should at least be a cautionary tale that nothing is in the bag yet. I really don't think anyone thinks this is in the bag just yet (at least not anyone with some level of common sense!). But one has to like the remarkable ensemble signals as well as what's now showing up on the deterministic runs. Don't get me wrong, I appreciate the caution here...I'm always overly cautious myself until we actually have a "go" time, but this is not looking like some far-fetched potential here. I'd like to think we're in a good position. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Looking ahead on the overall pattern including the EPO, the GEFS has actually been doing better in the last 2 weeks and should be the favored model until verification scores flip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 18z gefs looking healthy. Not quite done running. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 GFS with another chance on the 19th. Temps are a problem. But too early to worry about that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, aldie 22 said: where? Ohhh you sadist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Still the 12z AI would be the nightmare lol scenario for those in the same snow hole that’s been the last 8 years. 3 waves go north and one south leaving a comical snow hole over guess where! I think it should at least be a cautionary tale that nothing is in the bag yet. Some folks think because its Feb everything will go North, or trend North if given enough time. I wouldn't bet the house on that assumption. There are some dynamics in play that could once again, as you mention, push everything South for the largest threat. For me the two real issues are temps and track. Next week temps should be fine temp-wise, but track still very much in question. Hopefully we all win out. Of course some positive development today with the Euro and the GFS. So we track. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I’m jealous down here guys and gals. Looking to be a raging sleet or ice storm thus far. Been the theme this year it seems for south of 66. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: I’m jealous down here guys and gals. Looking to be a raging sleet or ice storm thus far. Been the theme this year it seems for south of 66. You and I ain't far from something nice! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 9 2 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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