dailylurker Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Ji said: I haven’t seen stuff like this since we were once friends in Evergreen meadows This reminds me of that gfs run about a week before the 2016 monster. Wow! What a fun run. LFG 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Ok ok. The big guns euro and the gfs Crushes us but.... What does the CRAS say? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: The SFBI (Scraff Fridge Beer Index) is extremely high during that period! Like +25 standard deviations! No room for any brie cheese or yogurts, the shelves will be bulging with high-quality beers! Actually I just checked. I’m good. Just praying the shelves hold. 5 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, T. August said: North of Bmore fringed. Sound the @North Balti Zen alarm. You want it exactly where it is right now. BTW similar to PD2 there will be a warm layer above 850 that intrudes into that firehose to our south. Being a little NW of that is not a bad place to be. Not that ending up with 20” of snow and sleet would be bad either. But some of those places showing 25” will probably in reality mix more from a mid level warm layer the gfs won’t see. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Scraff said: Actually I just checked. I’m good. Just praying the shelves hold. You should have enough room for a tub of Helluvagood dip! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, psuhoffman said: similar to PD2 all I'm reading is you are already calling for a PD2 redux? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: all I'm reading is you are already calling for a PD2 redux? The setup has some similarities. 1 1 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 We could finally have an event that's not out of here in 6 hours. Let's reel this one in! 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 This reminds me of that gfs run about a week before the 2016 monster. Wow! What a fun run. LFGThat’s the last time me and aldi 22 lived in same hood 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You want it exactly where it is right now. BTW similar to PD2 there will be a warm layer above 850 that intrudes into that firehose to our south. Being a little NW of that is not a bad place to be. Not that ending up with 20” of snow and sleet would be bad either. But some of those places showing 25” will probably in reality mix more from a mid level warm layer the gfs won’t see. 14 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Folks, we are getting into less than 1 week out for the Feb 12 system. GFS and Euro are in good agreement for now. 13 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGolfBro Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: some of this is this Saturday. like 1-3" max - only 1" at DCA 2 feet, that will work. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Terpeast said: Folks, we are getting into less than 1 week out for the Feb 12 system. GFS and Euro are in good agreement for now. Great agreement. Only 6 days out . What impresses me is the amazing consistency of the ensembles!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DanTheMan Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Im suppose to close on a house the 13th so this is a lock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Terpeast said: Folks, we are getting into less than 1 week out for the Feb 12 system. GFS and Euro are in good agreement for now. Ukie looked a lot like them too and 12z Icon wasn't far off either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, winter_warlock said: Great agreement. Only 6 days out . What impresses me is the amazing consistency of the ensembles!! The ensembles have been hammering this for the past several days, though initially it was not clear exactly what time period might produce this (various waves next week giving high ensemble mean amounts in total). It now appears to be honing in on the 11th-12th as the main event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 AO and NAO really tanking too on the operational under 10 days. Let’s line up the big after this big one. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Ukie looked a lot like them too and 12z Icon wasn't far off either. Wish ida saw the ukie snowmap lol but unfortunately work intruded lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Folks, we are getting into less than 1 week out for the Feb 12 system. GFS and Euro are in good agreement for now. The big ones always get sniffed out early. And if we are being honest the models have been signaling this for days already. I think a historic stretch is coming for all of us. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, DanTheMan said: Im suppose to close on a house the 13th so this is a lock <rubbing hands together gif> 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I guess the Saturday system is getting ignored and lost in the shuffle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: lol you’re north of the extreme mid level firehose Im talking about on this run too. But I’d be suspect of those crazy totals down in central VA as there’s very likely a mid level warm layer associated with the strong SW h7 winds partially responsible for that crazy precip band. The gfs won’t see it at this range. Remember places in central VA expected 18” before PD2 and got 8” of sleet instead. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, DanTheMan said: Im suppose to close on a house the 13th so this is a lock Take a snow shovel with you. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 On 2/2/2025 at 1:02 PM, stormy said: There has been a lot of hyperventilating during the past 24 hrs. after I asked a simple question, how does this winter feel different? Common sense answers this question, but I had a reason for asking. I hoped to hear an onslaught of shouting about how cold it has been!! Thank you Lord! Some have even suggested that I must be in blind denial of how cold it has been. Wow, what a joke! I have been paying close attention to the weather and climate longer than most in here have been alive. For the past 1 - 4 years I have been trying to say that all of this often repeated nonsense about "the elephant in the room" is just that. PSU tried to convince everyone that we have warmed so much that we would soon have to move north to ever see snow again. He has his opinion and I have mine. Unfortunately, many believed his tirades. Have a good afternoon PSU, we're still friends. The 1950's were benign with snow-drought seasons. In February of 1958, the door opened to a 12 year period of cold and snow. Has that door opened again? I doubt it but this winter has certainly been a big change from recent years. Looking forward to the next 10 - 15 days with the GFS and lesser degree ECMWF. I want to see the big 3 in general agreement of a significant event at 192 - 216 hrs. A lot will depend on where the boundary sets up. Interaction between the NS and SS looks to create an unsettled period at 10 - 20 days but we are still a few days away from any reliability regarding expectations. I well remember a year ago this month when everyone was super hyped because of EPS expectations for late February into March. We all know how that turned out. OK, we're at 180. Sunday I said 192-216 The big 3 give me 13 inches of snow next Tuesday/Wednesday. I would give a 60% probability of 4 - 8 inches at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 Just now, psuhoffman said: lol you’re north of the extreme mid level firehose Im talking about on this run too. But I’d be suspect of those crazy totals down in central VA as there’s very likely a mid level warm layer associated with the strong SW h7 winds partially responsible for that crazy precip band. The gfs won’t see it at this range. Remember places in central VA expected 18” before PD2 and got 8” of sleet instead. I'm fucking with you. We're gonna mix. We have to for all of us to cash in. It is what it is. City Living Penalty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 There was a time when the 2016 blizzard just locked in and we all knew it. I am absolutely NOT saying this is a comparable event or will be the same, or even that these amounts the Euro and GFS are showing will definitely verify. But the Saturday before the 2016 event, a week prior, every single model and ensemble was pounding that Jan. 22-23 time frame as a major winter event. It was just a matter of working out the details. I still vividly remember looking at the discussion in here after the 12Z models on Jan. 16 (that Saturday) and it's like everyone KNEW. Again, not saying this is the same exact thing by any means (or that it's "guaranteed"), but what the ensembles and the deterministic have been showing for the past couple of days is very reminiscent to me. That was a classic setup of course with the blocking, plus an El Nino, etc. So not the same. But you get the idea. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 You guys should know by now not mention plans that you have on days it could snow. Because I mean.... 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Sweet sounding for DCA right here. Ripping. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Wish ida saw the ukie snowmap lol but unfortunately work intruded lol It only goes out to 168hrs. Here's the map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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