February Medium/Long Range Thread

[WxUSAF]

23 minutes ago, grhqofb5 said:

Whoa!  Is that what you guys call a Nor’Easter?

Nor’easter comes from the predominant wind direction, typically during big coastal storms. This storm is forecast to be a bit different (primarily an “overrunning” event), but winds would shift to northeast at the end according to the euro.

[bncho]

GEFS ensemble members... I'm taking p9 and p25.

[bncho]

[AmericanWxFreak]

lol p25 is cool with me

[IronTy]

I don't know if I got it in me to shovel another foot+ snowstorm.   I ain't as young as I used to be.  

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, IronTy said:

I don't know if I got it in me to shovel another foot+ snowstorm.   I ain't as young as I used to be.  

I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts.   I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days.  

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts.   I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days.  

 Oh man I hoping for that!!!

[H2O]

10 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts.   I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days.  

2ft of snow would be over yo head.  8ft drifts would be 4 stormtrackers high

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, H2O said:

2ft of snow would be over yo head.  8ft drifts would be 4 stormtrackers high

I have no witty comeback at this time.

[H2O]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

I have no witty comeback at this time.

Its ok, sparky.  If we get that much snow my back will give out in 10 min.  Why?  Because I'm old.  

[Kmlwx]

26 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

I have no witty comeback at this time.

Weather Forum Boxing Match on the Mall. 

[Ji]

a little disappointing but EPS says 24% chance for a 12 or more inches? Is that good for this far out?

[IronTy]

1 hour ago, stormtracker said:

I hope there is 2 feet of snow in your driveway and you absolutely need to shovel it, but there are continuous 8 foot drifts.   I not only hope your back cracks and creaks each time you bend down to shovel the snow, I hope you have to shovel so much that your back is sore for at least 3 days.  

I think I'd just go Donner party or Shining at that point.  They could dig out what was left of me in spring.  

[Terpeast]

52 minutes ago, Ji said:

a little disappointing but EPS says 24% chance for a 12 or more inches? Is that good for this far out?

You're joking, right? That's a HECS signal

[Scraff]

I’m assuming everyone is GooFus watching. I’d love to see it fall in line with King Euro. I need some happy hour F bombs! 

[eduggs]

2 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

You're joking, right? That's a HECS signal

Well the full-run mean is about 9 or 10" so depending on the spread of members, 25% for 12" sounds about right. And the mean includes potentially multiple waves. The definition of HECS could be argued forever, but to me there is clearly a "signal" for a significant/major snowstorm next week. Nothing about it screams historic to me as this kind of output would be expected at this range maybe once or twice per winter on average. Since ensembles are run every 6 hours, only a fraction of the major storm "signals" are ultimately verified as major snow events... even fewer as historic.

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 hour ago, Kmlwx said:

Weather Forum Boxing Match on the Mall. 

Celebrity deathmatch...@stormtracker vs. @H2O!!!

[NorthArlington101]

GFS isn't nothing for next Saturday - 1-3" areawide then more ice.

[NorthArlington101]

sorry im now back in the office 5 days a week so my midday posting is down... this is a 24hr median on the EPS. Wowza

[psuhoffman]

8 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Nothing about it screams historic to me as this kind of output would be expected at this range maybe once or twice per winter on average. 

Maybe in Vermont 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

sorry im now back in the office 5 days a week so my midday posting is down... this is a 24hr median on the EPS. Wowza

Wow that is quite the signal for a week out.  Pretty hard to not like this threat a lot with looks like that. 

[Heisy]

GFS will be farther N this run I believe


.

[Ji]

Maybe in Vermont 

lol

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Heisy said:

GFS will be farther N this run I believe


.

It does look that way soo far

[Ji]

GFS will be farther N this run I believe


.

So much earlier than the euro. The euro hasn’t developed the storm yet at 138 and it’s snowing in dc in gfs

[NorthArlington101]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

GFS will be farther N this run I believe


.

Central VA getting smoked at 144 - might be a run where it crawls north again

[NorthArlington101]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

Central VA getting smoked at 144 - might be a run where it crawls north again

or slides out to sea at 153 - we'll see if the next wave can kick it up.

[Interstate]

3 minutes ago, Heisy said:

GFS will be farther N this run I believe


.

Might have jumped the gun here

[Its a Breeze]

12 minutes ago, eduggs said:

Nothing about it screams historic to me as this kind of output would be expected at this range maybe once or twice per winter on average. Since ensembles are run every 6 hours, only a fraction of the major storm "signals" are ultimately verified as major snow events... even fewer as historic.

In the last 10 years, how many times have we had this type of run to run consistency, on multiple models, showing these amounts, this far out?

[NorthArlington101]

round 2 getting organized at 159 - snowing decently DCA at 162