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February Medium/Long Range Thread


stormtracker
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Despite what some may bad about Bamwx, this is a decent explanation of February into March and his ideas on cold returning for the end of February into March match Psu's analogs. Don't judge it on the first page map you see. Lol   I  really recommend it because he includes some good reasoning too.

 

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  On 1/29/2025 at 1:14 PM, mitchnick said:

6z AI now has 2/5 in play. One impulse comes thru on the 5th and a second round on the 6th/7th. DC north looks OK at 850 and surface, possibly a bit south of DC. This precip link starts on 2/5 so you can move it forward for precip amounts. Precip amounts on that top link are in 6 hour increments, but bottom is 12 hour for maybe a better idea of totals.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600

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Crucial test for it

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  On 1/29/2025 at 6:12 PM, Ji said:

the OP to me has been way better than the AI

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I think the AI has definitely been better 120hrs or less "most" of the time. Beyond 120hrs, they've both been hit or miss. AI was first to show the 2/6 threat, so we'll see how that ultimately goes. It's been getting stronger with the cold pushes around the 6th, so it'll be interesting to see which always it goes in 45 minutes. 

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  On 1/29/2025 at 6:26 PM, mitchnick said:

At 360hrs, it's loading up for another overrunning event, but this is a little warmer to start, but not by much.

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the biggest mistake the european did this year was extend out to 360 hours. Now that its done...i wish they did it for 6z and 18z runs :weenie:

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