February Medium/Long Range Thread

[winter_warlock]

Just now, MN Transplant said:

I, for one, am looking forward to our 48 hours of snow next Monday-Wednesday.

48 hours?....

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

20 inches in south VA... Ji won't be happy.

Yeah, the northern cut off from great to decent is brutal.    Well, my bad for making it seem worse than it was.  Told yall I was gonna fuck it up.  It just looked kinda unimpressive on SV.  Surface seemed way too warm.  And to be fair, I was comparing it to 6z, which was better IMO

[Solution Man]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

20 inches in south VA... Ji won't be happy.

Short Pump wins

[WxUSAF]

Light snow by dawn Tuesday in GGEM. Vort is very weak relative to gfs. 

[Ji]

the good thing--GFS had a ton of potential

[bncho]

Just now, Ji said:

the good thing--GFS had a ton of potential

it just needed a 100-150 mile shift north 

[Solution Man]

Just now, bncho said:

it just needed a 100-150 mile shift north 

It's good for now...don't want to jackpot 6 days out

[WesternFringe]

4 minutes ago, bncho said:

20 inches in south VA... Ji won't be happy.

20" in south VA??  How about central VA?

[Ji]

Just now, bncho said:

it just needed a 100-150 mile shift north 

unlike the January pattern...i would be shocked if it didnt go North---this run didnt even give us any ice like 6z lol...

[bncho]

1 minute ago, WesternFringe said:

20" in south VA??  How about central VA?

yea its central mb
 

1 minute ago, Ji said:

unlike the January pattern...i would be shocked if it didnt go North---this run didnt even give us any ice like 6z lol...

we can reel this one in

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Light snow by dawn Tuesday in GGEM. Vort is very weak relative to gfs. 

Low just slides by...not much precip.  Then another slides to our south after that.

[bncho]

GFS trying to setup another system around the 14th.

[Solution Man]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

unlike the January pattern...i would be shocked if it didnt go North---this run didnt even give us any ice like 6z lol...

You didn't complain?

[stormtracker]

Follow up Vday storm is decent...lose the 850s after what seems to be a thump

[jayyy]

20 inches in south VA... Ji won't be happy.

Given the lack of blocking at this point, I’d rather it be south of us 8 days out.

[bncho]

starts as snow but we are losing thermals

[stormtracker]

Forum wide 4 to 6 from what I can tell looking at these fucked SV maps.  But it's suspect because we do ride the line and then lose the thermals half way through

[WVclimo]

Throws a bone to Baltimore on the 14th

[Ji]

wow the GGEM and the AI are now suppressed with the GFS. are we doing this suppression thing again lol

[stormtracker]

GFS is just frustrating with these marginal temps.  It's way out there so of course we shouldn't sweat it rn

[bncho]

3-6"

[T. August]

Gfs/gem were ok all things considered. Hopefully the ensembles don’t abandon the idea.

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

wow the GGEM and the AI are now suppressed with the GFS. are we doing this suppression thing again lol

It's what we do best

[WxUSAF]

4 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Low just slides by...not much precip.  Then another slides to our south after that.

Good hit for RIC. 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Forum wide 4 to 6 from what I can tell looking at these fucked SV maps.  But it's suspect because we do ride the line and then lose the thermals half way through

Yeah, that northern GL low kinda helps with messing the thermals up, it appears.

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is just frustrating with these marginal temps.  It's way out there so of course we shouldn't sweat it rn

guess PSU was right. We have to wait till Feb 20 to get stuff in there that can lock HP in place

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, Ji said:

guess PSU was right. We have to wait till Feb 20 to get stuff in there that can lock HP in place

AI looks like a good cold snow for us actually from 6z.  

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

wow the GGEM and the AI are now suppressed with the GFS. are we doing this suppression thing again lol

 

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's what we do best

Without the blocking established yet, some wiggle room south is fine at D7.

[T. August]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

GFS is just frustrating with these marginal temps.  It's way out there so of course we shouldn't sweat it rn

I don’t know how to explain it or if there’s an actual reason, but I feel like marginal temps don’t usually end up happening. It’s either colder in reality, or 37° and rain.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

Good hit for RIC. 

We're taking the bus down to Bob Chill's place