February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Gfs looking colder to start on Saturday  fwiw.

the GFS likes to delay precip and shatter dreams

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

the GFS likes to delay precip and shatter dreams

They all have their unique ways of doing it.

[Mikeymac5306]

17 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

To be fair, i was at my neighborhood bar last night and got tore up. I asked for a shot and this was the bartender’s version of a shot.  I had “several”. On a work night.  Complete dumb ass. 

What Firehouse is that in the picture? 

[stormtracker]

Just now, Mikeymac5306 said:

What Firehouse is that in the picture? 

Cleveland Park station

[Heisy]

Northern stream might be a touch suppressive this run


.

[bncho]

GFS trying for the 11th.

[stormtracker]

Ok, slug approaches from the southwest...seems earlier?   We have the 850s...sfc is above freezing tho

[stormtracker]

Angle of approach and orientation is a little better than 6z from what I can tell

[stormtracker]

sfc temps collapse...looks light to mod snow from 6z to 9z Tues

[stormtracker]

And can confirm..looks a little more suppressive/smooshed to the south, but looks like we get some decent snows so far...let's see if we can get the rest up this way

[Ji]

Here is my personal tracking rules

Anything from 204 hours out-is Fantasy land

Phase 1

192 hours and in---okay....this is probably trackable

120-192 hours---where storms usually die but this is the time frame to start legit play by play

Phase 2

120 hours--is Phase 2. If we reach Phase 2--we will likely have the event. Just have no idea where the screw zone is

84-120 hours---this is where the event still happens but something screwy occurs to shift the snow north or south lol

Phase 3

Nam Range--the GFS cant be that bad at 84 hours range.....the storm is pretty much on my mind 24.7. 

Phase 4(24 hours to game time)

this is very never racking especially if 15-20 mile ticks can make or break the event. I dont know how we ever survive to actually get a storm

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

Just now, stormtracker said:

And can confirm..looks a little more suppressive/smooshed to the south, but looks like we get some decent snows so far...let's see if we can get the rest up this way

Still like a full day earlier than the euro…

[Solution Man]

12 hours of light to moderate snow and more to come...maybe big

 

[stormtracker]

Meh...we lose the sfc freezing line  850 well to the south draped across south central VA

[stormtracker]

Just now, Solution Man said:

12 hours of light to moderate snow and more to come...maybe big

 

Eh...it's suppressed and a bit warmer at the sfc than 6z.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Still like a full day earlier than the euro…

and the ICON I believe 

[mitchnick]

AI was suppressed 

[bncho]

GFS looks like it has a round 2.

[stormtracker]

Sorry guys.  It's a disappointing follow up to 6z

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

GFS looks like it has a round 2.

No

[Solution Man]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

youve been wrong on almost every model projection the past 3 days

sorry

[AdamHLG]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Cleveland Park station

Engine Company 28 DCFD.  Yes I did a screen capture on the photo and uploaded it to ChatGPT.  :---) 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, bncho said:

GFS looks like it has a round 2.

I mean, let me rephrase...it's some light stuff as the main slug is sliding se and off the coast

[stormtracker]

lol, crappy SV maps aren't as bad as it looks on the precip maps, but we all know it's counting accumulating snow when surface temps are like 35

[bncho]

Well, I'm going to take a SE miss, especially when compared to a NW miss.

[stormtracker]

When it's below freezing, it's actually not that bad when the first period of snows come through.  Something like 4 to 6?  Pretty map people do your thing. 

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

I think the GFS is likely out to lunch here, that whole part 1 seems suspicious. 

[T. August]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

lol, crappy SV maps aren't as bad as it looks on the precip maps, but we all know it's counting accumulating snow when surface temps are like 35

Kuchera is like 8” in DC. Not bad. North of Baltimore gets screwed hard.

[bncho]

Just now, stormtracker said:

When it's below freezing, it's actually not that bad when the first period of snows come through.  Something like 4 to 6?  Pretty map people do your thing. 

20 inches in south VA... Ji won't be happy.

[MN Transplant]

I, for one, am looking forward to our 48 hours of snow next Monday-Wednesday.