Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 48 minutes ago, Heisy said: Trend on the EPS to shift the EPO ridge N which is pumping up the SE ridge beyond the 10-12th period, at least temporarily. So while the Feb 10-12 event is on the table, there might be a brief delay after that before true Barney could arrive . Is the mint pattern still on target to arrive after the 20th or did the epo change mitigate that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Trend on the EPS to shift the EPO ridge N which is pumping up the SE ridge beyond the 10-12th period, at least temporarily. So while the Feb 10-12 event is on the table, there might be a brief delay after that before true Barney could arrive . Is that a trend or one run? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 40 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is the mint pattern still on target to arrive after the 20th or did the epo change mitigate that? Will not name names but some posters in other forums close to ours question the longevity of the pattern after the 20th. Jeez, we didn't even get a real pattern change yet IMHO. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 hours ago, Ji said: Psu I did a calculation and it was shocking. Since 14-15....dulles has had 21 inches of snow in February. That's beyond comprehension Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk We have had stretches like this before. This is BWI: 86-95 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: We have had stretches like this before. This is BWI: 86-95 And 68-77: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, MDScienceTeacher said: And 68-77: 26-32 was particularly bad: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Trend on the EPS to shift the EPO ridge N which is pumping up the SE ridge beyond the 10-12th period, at least temporarily. So while the Feb 10-12 event is on the table, there might be a brief delay after that before true Barney could arrive . it looks temporary. not really worried about that 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it looks temporary. not really worried about that Looks like a temporary blip. The feb 11-12 storm is there on the means, and milder air comes right after as the cold high moves offshore, then another cold air push in the 14-15 day range 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 26 minutes ago, frd said: Will not name names but some posters in other forums close to ours question the longevity of the pattern after the 20th. Jeez, we didn't even get a real pattern change yet IMHO. why are we talking about a change in the pattern before the pattern changed? 9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, nj2va said: why are we talking about a change in the pattern before the pattern changed? You're new here. 2 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, nj2va said: why are we talking about a change in the pattern before the pattern changed? Not me, other forum, I think that's silly. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 minutes ago, frd said: Not me, other forum, I think that's silly. I'll name names lol 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Anyone else feel this advertised great pattern after Feb 20 is going to turn out to be meh and the real show is actually over the next week and a half to two weeks? 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 30 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: it looks temporary. not really worried about that Yeah, this looks to be the positive/neutral EPO period in the depiction below. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 43 minutes ago, frd said: Will not name names but some posters in other forums close to ours question the longevity of the pattern after the 20th. Jeez, we didn't even get a real pattern change yet IMHO. We have some real winners in our forum 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: EPO actually goes positive, hopefully not a trend... AO and NAO remain solidly negative. Looks great! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Take one week at a time. I am focusing on the pending ice event and the potential for 6-12 inches the middle of next week. Worry about the rest of February after that. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Im ok with the EPO being neutral to slightly neg on average. Don't get me wrong, the Jan pattern was fun but cold and dry was the main feature and was due to the massive +PNA/-EPO ridge. Even a few days ago the ops were hinting at another return of the avocado due to the impressive -EPO. I do get the lowlands wanting that massive push of cold to set the stage but we are later in the season and a -AO/NAO combo should be all we need. Maybe higher risks of rain/ice but def higher reward potential imo. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 its very hard to have all 3(EPO/AO and NAO) negative at the same time.....id rather take my chances with AO/NAO. They scream snow much more than a -EPO 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Ji said: its very hard to have all 3(EPO/AO and NAO) negative at the same time.....id rather take my chances with AO/NAO. They scream snow much more than a -EPO Same. Give me the negative AO/NAO combo and I'll roll the dice. We are going to get crushed eventually. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6z Euro has a little snow for DC on Saturday 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, Ji said: its very hard to have all 3(EPO/AO and NAO) negative at the same time.....id rather take my chances with AO/NAO. They scream snow much more than a -EPO So true, its like the Holy Grail for setting up MECS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 why even bother talking about a potential pattern hiccup when this is on the horizon? lmao 10 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
deer Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, brooklynwx99 said: why even bother talking about a potential pattern hiccup when this is on the horizon? lmao 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 17 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: why even bother talking about a potential pattern hiccup when this is on the horizon? lmao You new here? 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: You knew here? It is early 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Sterling mentions the amazing consistency in the ensembles for next weeks coastal storm..... While just outside the realm of this forecast, global ensembles are remarkably consistent on a possible coastal storm by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Given it is still over a week away, details will certainly change in the coming days. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 4 Author Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, aldie 22 said: It is early Shit. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Improved trends on the AO, some members tank it to extreme negative values, - 4 to -6 SD. This ups the potential of 6 inch or greater snowfall in our area. The drop in the AO from +4 SD back in October to negative is even more pronouced ( quicker ) this go around. ( even though we started at +3 SD versus + 4 SD ) Depending on SPV and future heat fluxes, the real bottom to the AO may not even occur until March, in a repeating cycle downward. Also, improvements in the NAO and the PNA are noted as well. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Sterling mentions the amazing consistency in the ensembles for next weeks coastal storm..... While just outside the realm of this forecast, global ensembles are remarkably consistent on a possible coastal storm by the Tuesday/Wednesday timeframe next week. Given it is still over a week away, details will certainly change in the coming days. Seems like its not often at all when Sterling goes outside its forecast range, really speaks to how impressive the signal is. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: Seems like its not often at all when Sterling goes outside its forecast range, really speaks to how impressive the signal is. Sounds ominous...we like ominous 4 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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