February Medium/Long Range Thread

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

I’ll never forget that while the models were still showing it as snow …Wes compared it to Feb 1983

Every storm is slightly different. Adjust that 50 miles south and you get a foot of snow and ice like that euro run. Just have to take our chances. 

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

What was the enso state in 2007?

 

Just now, Ji said:

I think Nino but not positive

Weak Nino 

[Ji]

Should we be worried that we have had a wall to wall cold winter and still not above normsl snow. How many of these winters can we expect going forward.

[Ji]

The storm on euro develops at hour 168. Is it time to start tracking it for real?

[Maestrobjwa]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Should we be worried that we have had a wall to wall cold winter and still not above normsl snow. How many of these winters can we expect going forward.

I'd save that question for the end of the season. It's possible that with whatever bonus snow we get through this "torch" period (in between all the mixing, lol), we could get to average. And after that we gotta see if the blocking pattern will produce.

[psuhoffman]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Should we be worried that we have had a wall to wall cold winter and still not above normsl snow. How many of these winters can we expect going forward.

No because it’s a cold enso. Historically cold but not super snowy cold enso seasons are normal.  If we got a cold modoki Nino and wasted it I’d be more upset.  Plus we are above average for the date in many places.  There is a lot of time left.  What do you need to get to average?  
 

 

[psuhoffman]

@Ji based on my analogs and what I’m seeing Id expect you to get 12-15” more if I had to guess. Would that get you to above avg?  

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

@Ji based on my analogs and what I’m seeing Id expect you to get 12-15” more if I had to guess. Would that get you to above avg?  

Since you're handing out analog guesses...Hey me next! 

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Since you're handing out analog guesses...Hey me next! 

This is just an educated guess based on similar years and patterns but I'd put your over under at like 9" the rest of the way

[Ji]

No because it’s a cold enso. Historically cold but not super snowy cold enso seasons are normal.  If we got a cold modoki Nino and wasted it I’d be more upset.  Plus we are above average for the date in many places.  There is a lot of time left.  What do you need to get to average?  
 
 

If we go by Dulles…they have about 10.6

So maybe 12 more inches

But who wants a normal snow winter with wall to wall cold. If we don’t hit 30 it’s a disaster imo

[psuhoffman]

Just now, psuhoffman said:

This is just an educated guess based on similar years and patterns but I'd put your over under at like 9" the rest of the way

I am being conservative too...one flush hit can go over that of course but how often have we got lucky lately?

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am being conservative too...one flush hit can go over that of course but how often have we got lucky lately?

Seeing as we haven't in a long time...maybe the WDI finally comes through? 

[psuhoffman]

Just now, Ji said:

If we go by Dulles…they have about 10.6

So maybe 12 more inches

But who wants a normal snow winter with wall to wall cold. If we don’t hit 30 it’s a disaster imo

So your bar for not being a "disaster" is winter has to do something that has only happened 4 times in the last 20 years?

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

If we go by Dulles…they have about 10.6

So maybe 12 more inches

But who wants a normal snow winter with wall to wall cold. If we don’t hit 30 it’s a disaster imo

also keep in mind the "averages" are both skewed by those 1-2 huge years a decade and also lag real time because they are based on the last 30 years but we know our snowfall is decreasing.  So in reality IAD's average NOW is probably lower.  In about 20 years when we can calculate the average centered on this season it will probably be like 18 or 19". 

[ravensrule]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I am being conservative too...one flush hit can go over that of course but how often have we got lucky lately?

Good thing you aren’t an oddsmaker, i would put his over under at like 14”. 

[Ji]

So your bar for not being a "disaster" is winter has to do something that has only happened 4 times in the last 20 years?

Our snow fall should be this winter somewhere between 13-14 and 14-15 winters

It's mostly bad luck. Pensacola is almost at 10 inches lol

We've had more blocking too than anticipated

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[Ji]

Psu I did a calculation and it was shocking. Since 14-15....dulles has had 21 inches of snow in February. That's beyond comprehension

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[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS continues rock solid for next week.

[jayyy]

If we go by Dulles…they have about 10.6

So maybe 12 more inches

But who wants a normal snow winter with wall to wall cold. If we don’t hit 30 it’s a disaster imo

No it’s not. Cold ensos tend to be dry around these parts. To PSUs point, if we get a cold pattern in a Modoki niño with an active southern jet and barely hit climo, that’s a fail. If we can manage climo or above with a primarily northern stream driven pattern all winter, that’s certainly a win. Especially in our new base state. We lucked out big time twice in a niña pattern over the past nearly 3 decades. So the notion that we *should* see 14-15 level snowfall defies the overwhelming norm.

[Maestrobjwa]

6 minutes ago, Ji said:

Psu I did a calculation and it was shocking. Since 14-15....dulles has had 21 inches of snow in February. That's beyond comprehension

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I was just thinking about this the other day...February has been unusually barren over the last 10 years (hopefully that's about to change). It's like every Feb we are punting most if not all of it. That's why already being able to track something to start off February is quite refreshing!

[Ji]

No it’s not. Cold ensos tend to be dry around these parts. To PSUs point, if we get a cold pattern in a Modoki niño with an active southern jet and barely hit climo, that’s a fail. If we can manage climo or above with a primarily northern stream driven pattern all winter, that’s certainly a win. Especially in our new base state.

There has been an active Southern jet....it's just been too suppressed

Our biggest hope might be a redo of the march. 2001 storm....that happened in a similar winter as this

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[Ji]

I was just thinking about this the other day...February has been unusually barren over the last 10 years (hopefully that's about to change). It's like every Feb we are punting most if not all of it. That's why already being able to track something to start off February is quite refreshing!

I didn't realize it was that bad. It's basically been a spring month for 10 years

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[jayyy]

There has been an active Southern jet....it's just been too suppressed

Our biggest hope might be a redo of the march. 2001 storm....that happened in a similar winter as this

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Feb 15 to march 15 we have a legit chance to see multiple biggies. If we strike out in that period, we can revisit the shoulda woulda coulda convo.

[bncho]

GEFS looks primed to have a snow mean of 10" in DC and Baltimore... @Jiup to a foot.

[psuhoffman]

13 minutes ago, ravensrule said:

Good thing you aren’t an oddsmaker, i would put his over under at like 14”. 

I'm basing it off pattern analogs not what the models show right now....and I am being conservative given how little snow we have had lately. 

[psuhoffman]

15 minutes ago, Ji said:

Our snow fall should be this winter somewhere between 13-14 and 14-15 winters

It's mostly bad luck. Pensacola is almost at 10 inches lol

We've had more blocking too than anticipated

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14-15 was a modoki nino and 2014 was the best cold enso season since 1996 and the second best since the 60s.  This is probably going to end up being one of the better cold enso seasons of the last 20 years...that should be the bar. 

[bncho]

wtf

 

[bncho]

GEFS with a very high snow mean considering no discrete threat.

 

[psuhoffman]

Lol

[psuhoffman]

EPS