WVclimo Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 18 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Look at all the QPF we hypothetically lose to ice this next week That BAMwx video Mitch shared mentioned Feb 1994 as an analog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Round 5 with a 1050H to the north (Ice) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Ice ice baby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 0-5We just lost 40 inches of snow in one run 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I’m going to bed…crappy runs tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Ji said: 0-5 We just lost 40 inches of snow in one run Even after all this time ya can't handle fantasy land changes like that? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 33 minutes ago, Ji said: I hope this ain’t becoming Feb 2007 when the models had 20 plus inches for days before a last minute shift changed it to a ice storm But isn’t that expected to some degree. The best analogs to this pattern are more icy than snowy for our area. That’s why I said I’m less sure of this period. Models often adjust to the analogs of what more typically happens once inside day 7. This is not to say we won’t get snow or can’t even get the crazy amounts some runs show, but are we really expecting that when history suggests more ice and less snow is the more common outcome? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 0-5We just lost 40 inches of snow in one runWho cares. These threats are 1-2 weeks away Are we actually living and dying by each run THIS far out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutMD Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 I think Saturday's upside is a snowier Wednesday/Thursday event... no shot we don't mix seemingly. ^ most of this is "ice"Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Through day 10, which is honestly as far out as it even matters…0z gefs is snowier 0z on top, 18z below 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Think of it this way…once past 120 hours each permutation is about equally likely. There are plenty of big members. This run the op happened to be one of the lesser ones which is equally likely looking at the full spread of options. Also this snow is from several waves so a mean of 7” looks exciting but maybe less so when you see the details and it all came 2” at a time from snow to ice to rain events which is what we’re probably looking at. But I thought it was just a win we were tracking frozen events during what was supposed to be our torch week! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Euro looks promising 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Euro looks promising It’s already beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Euro reminds me of a less juiced up cold enso version of PD2. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Euro looks promising 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Euro reminds me of a less juiced up cold enso version of PD2. It’s the best run yet. It will be Feb 2007 in a few days lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, Ji said: With a decent amount of sleet and freezing rain on top of the snow also. Which is good if we want it to survive the rain when we inevitably end up on the wrong side of the boundary for some of the waves to come! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Ji said: It’s the best run yet. It will be Feb 2007 in a few days lol What did you get from that storm? It was like 8” of snow/sleet/freezing rain that ended up a solid glacier that lasted almost until April here. I’d take that again! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 With a decent amount of sleet and freezing rain on top of the snow also. Which is good if we want it to survive the rain when we inevitably end up on the wrong side of the boundary for some of the waves to come! We might have 8 9 large precip events before March 15 lol…if we can just win 3 of them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 What did you get from that storm? It was like 8” of snow/sleet/freezing rain that ended up a solid glacier that lasted almost until April here. I’d take that again! I think i got 5.5 inches of sleet and no snow. It was crippling because it was impossible to shovel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 That period must not have been as good down there. You keep talking about 2007 like a fail. But from mid Feb to mid March I had an 8” ice storm followed by a 4” snow to ice event then a 6” snow in March. The winter as a whole was a fail because I had no snow at all before that period. But mid Feb to mid March was plenty good imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: What did you get from that storm? It was like 8” of snow/sleet/freezing rain that ended up a solid glacier that lasted almost until April here. I’d take that again! I remember the ice not being able to be plowed and breaking equipment. Was definitely glaciers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 What did you get from that storm? It was like 8” of snow/sleet/freezing rain that ended up a solid glacier that lasted almost until April here. I’d take that again! I’ll never forget that while the models were still showing it as snow …Wes compared it to Feb 1983 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Ji said: I’ll never forget that while the models were still showing it as snow …Wes compared it to Feb 1983 What was the enso state in 2007? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 That period must not have been as good down there. You keep talking about 2007 like a fail. But from mid Feb to mid March I had an 8” ice storm followed by a 4” snow to ice event then a 6” snow in March. The winter as a whole was a fail because I had no snow at all before that period. But mid Feb to mid March was plenty good imo. I mean it was a fail if you like snow. The sleet storm was heavy precip and mid 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 What was the enso state in 2007?I think Nino but not positive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Ji said: I’ll never forget that while the models were still showing it as snow …Wes compared it to Feb 1983 Every storm is slightly different. Adjust that 50 miles south and you get a foot of snow and ice like that euro run. Just have to take our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: What was the enso state in 2007? Just now, Ji said: I think Nino but not positive Weak Nino Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Should we be worried that we have had a wall to wall cold winter and still not above normsl snow. How many of these winters can we expect going forward. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 The storm on euro develops at hour 168. Is it time to start tracking it for real? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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