ravensrule Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Just now, mitchnick said: 18z Gefs are crazy. Imagine saying that to Pee Wee Herman without visual proof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gefs are crazy. Go on. . . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, mitchnick said: The end of the run is very disappointing. I'll need time to reconsider my feelings. 《insert Barry Manilow cd here》 Not surprising, the gfs op looks nothing like the gefs at h5 at range. GEFS still has the tpv in a favorable spot underneath the negative nao where the op rotted the tpv and linked the nao with the ser. Crisis averted 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 10 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gefs are crazy. You think the worse of the snow ( lots of snow ) is before the 20th or after the 20 th Lets put odds on it ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 11 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gefs are crazy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 12z on top 18z on bottom. Not finished. 7 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 https://x.com/burgwx/status/1886548148765573403 The EPS are impressively bullish on the potential for a moderate or major Mid Atlantic/Northeast snowstorm between Feb 11-14. At these lead times I wouldn’t read too much into the specifics — just that a major snowstorm potential in this region exists 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 hour ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yeah, what's up with that? The good period advertised looks worse than the lead-up. Before anyone says it, I know it's the op at farthest range and likely wont look anything like that at 384. But wouldnt it be some shit we get crushed during the reload then go into a relax after the 20th, the old bait n switch? It was a 1-2 day warm up before that next trough digs in. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 29 minutes ago, mitchnick said: 18z Gefs are crazy. Lots of big hits....WB 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: Lots of big hits....WB This looks better than yesterday's. I can't recall , but WOW ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 48 minutes ago, Ji said: You know for your pattern we are not gonna have the same moisture flow as the next 2 weeks most likely. Yea. The most likely fail the next 2 weeks is rain. The most likely fail weeks 3-4 is dry imo. 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Really worth watching Bam Weather update from this morning. Some decent explanations too. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Yeah, completely different 500mb from several days ago https://www.meteo.psu.edu/ewall/ENSHGTAVGNH_18z/ensloopmref.html EPS crushed it leading the way.. kind of a historic bust for the GEFS having >+300dm anomalies on the mean.. now the High pressure never centers over the N. Pacific ocean.. it's all Alaska or the Arctic circle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 6 minutes ago, frd said: This looks better than yesterday's. I can't recall , but WOW ! Pretty disappointed if we don't get at least a 6 inch storm out of this. Snow on snow or 12 inches would make this a B+ year. An HECS in late Feb or March would make it a A++. We will see. Fun times. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 5800dm Heights coming up for NW Russia in mid Winter! That's the H5 loading pattern area historically for -NAO several days later 3 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 4 hours ago, Ji said: still a little east for who? Looks fine to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Ensemble means look wild this far out. Two strong signals around the 12th and 16th. Let’s go!!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 AI mainly south and east with the 12th but has a storm for the 15th with temp issues for I95 and east. The threats are simply out of range for the AI in all likelihood. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd stick with the ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 25 minutes ago, mitchnick said: Really worth watching Bam Weather update from this morning. Some decent explanations too. Great video!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, mitchnick said: AI mainly south and east with the 12th but has a storm for the 15th with temp issues for I95 and east. The threats are simply out of range for the AI in all likelihood. Maybe I'm wrong, but I'd stick with the ensembles. You’re never wrong, being in a wheelchair all day gives you incredible brainpower. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Lol sterling calling for a low of 44 and it's already down to 39 here lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 15 minutes ago, ravensrule said: You’re never wrong, being in a wheelchair all day gives you incredible brainpower. Not yet. And I still have all my original equipment...for now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 42 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Lol sterling calling for a low of 44 and it's already down to 39 here lol Forecast low of 46. I’m at 36 now. Temps have been underperforming for 3 days now 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 Jb said Ai cancelled the cold pattern for mid February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Jb said Ai cancelled the cold pattern for mid February No Sistene Chapel teleconnection? No March 1993? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Jb said Ai cancelled the cold pattern for mid February You scared? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Jb said Ai cancelled the cold pattern for mid February It changes every 6-hour run. Really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 10 minutes ago, Ji said: Jb said Ai cancelled the cold pattern for mid February This has been an odd year, BAM and Eric Webb have often been on the cold hype train; while JB has been a downer. Next we'll see dogs and cats living together; mass hysteria!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 It changes every 6-hour run. Really. You give it a lot of press for a model that changes so much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 4 Share Posted February 4 1 minute ago, Ji said: You give it a lot of press for a model that changes so much Everybody wants to know what it shows, but aren't really interested enough to figure out those lousy maps. I'll do it. I have nothing else to do except play one of my guitars while I wait to shovel snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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