February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Maestrobjwa]

2 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I’d be on the same page as you if the Deep South didn’t get more snow than us.

Well technically the highest total I heard down there (8.3" in NO) is where BWI is right now. But if you're saying the deep south got more than we got in ONE storm? Then yes, lol

[Kevin Reilly]

9 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Well technically the highest total I heard down there (8.3" in NO) is where BWI is right now. But if you're saying the deep south got more than we got in ONE storm? Then yes, lol

Sooo… the total here in Media Delaware County for the winter is 8.33” ohhh about 80-90 miles northeast of your sub forum and the drought raged on to boot.  Just bring the rain at this point or anything. 

[Maestrobjwa]

So it's sounding like...typical Nina February? I mean if that's the case, at least we had deep winter in January with snow cover that lasted almost the entire month! That hasn't happened since what...2014? Lol And the winter has already been better than any of us would've expected. Yes it was a very low bar to clear, but still, look

So, for now we can kinda disengage until the pattern actually changes!

[gymengineer]

3 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

You know, if some of these posters wind up being right and it’s indeed over then it’s really gonna sting, solely because of the fact that New Orleans got more snow than the metros. If next year is a wall to wall snowless torch like 16-17 or 22-23 the it’ll sting even more in retrospect.

This also means that the weenies will be downright insufferable, an absolute tsunami of butthurt. You know what though? Should that come to pass I think they’ve earned it, when you get screwed over that hard you should have the right to be upset about it.

Our “turn” can’t come soon enough.

I think your definition of a weenie is far too narrow if you do not consider yourself one.

Most people who aren’t obsessive in this thread don’t have negative feelings about the wondrous scenes from New Orleans. I loved watching folks being in awe of what was happening. 

I thoroughly enjoyed January here, and others have expressed the same. Just speak for yourself. 

[snowmagnet]

7 hours ago, mitchnick said:

Oh yeah, none of my bookmarks or saved passwords transferred. 

Should have gotten an iPhone 

[IronTy]

10 hours ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

I’d be on the same page as you if the Deep South didn’t get more snow than us.

It's this time of the season when weenies come out of the woodwork with tales of big snows from Marches of yore and how we can still score before bud break.  

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, snowmagnet said:

Should have gotten an iPhone 

This.  This right here.

He got the phone for old people and toddlers. 

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

This.  This right here.

He got the phone for old people and toddlers. 

All I  ever had was a Samsung and with my disdain for technology and lack of curiosity of it, I have no desire to figure out where everything is on a different brand. The reason some stuff didn't carry over was because I intentionally do not sync my phone or put stuff in the cloud. It's all on the phone.  I refuse to download any apps because they all want access to everything on your phone. Why? They don't need 95% of it. I do banking and retirement stuff on my phone and the fewer people that have access, the less likelihood I get hacked. 

[LordBaltimore]

5 hours ago, CAPE said:

The Control in an ensemble serves as an unperturbed 'reference' for the perturbed members. It really has no more value by itself than any other single member.

The control in a variational DA system like the IFS -aka ECMWF- isn't a reference state. It's the modal solution. Imagine a Gaussian curve with each regular ensemble member acting as an equally likely sample. The control isn't just some regular old member. It's the peak of the Gaussian

[JenkinsJinkies]

You know I wonder if, due to quirks in the local geography, it can be possible for the deep south to score like it did last week while at the same time we've permanently lost the ability to get 2' snow storms?

[WEATHER53]

It was a fun run with great obs

Tonight’s first night where shaded wet spots have not refrozen. 

[Ji]

Euro has a snow during the sneaky window of Feb 6-7

[Ji]

EPS long range showing improving AO/NAO

[CAPE]

6 hours ago, LordBaltimore said:

The control in a variational DA system like the IFS -aka ECMWF- isn't a reference state. It's the modal solution. Imagine a Gaussian curve with each regular ensemble member acting as an equally likely sample. The control isn't just some regular old member. It's the peak of the Gaussian

In the case of the ECMWF the control is the deterministic. The post you replied to was intended be a more general explanation of how a control run is used in an ensemble system.

Point stands though. The control/deterministic by itself with a single set of initial conditions integrated over 15 (or 46) days provides one possible outcome without accounting for uncertainty in the IC. 

[Weather Will]

6 minutes ago, CAPE said:

In the case of the ECMWF the control is the deterministic. The post you replied to was intended be a more general explanation of how a control run is used in an ensemble system.

Point stands though. The control/deterministic by itself with a single set of initial conditions integrated over 15 (or 46) days provides one possible outcome without accounting for uncertainty in the IC. 

I post the control just to irritate you....

actually I think I posted the EPS mean as well.

Signals don't seem very clear to be on how February will turn out, at least compared to January, so we watch and look for trends.

[CAPE]

Just now, Weather Will said:

I post the control just to irritate you....

actually I think I posted the EPS mean as well.

Signals don't seem very clear to be on how February will turn out, at least compared to January, so we watch and look for trends.

The mean is fine. Much more useful in the LR as all of us here know by now.

[CAPE]

The 0z GEFS and EPS are still hinting at a little something in the Feb 6-10 window.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS....at least the salt will wash away by Saturday am.  Clean slate for February.

[mitchnick]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Euro has a snow during the sneaky window of Feb 6-7

That's the period the AI has been targeting fwiw.

[WxUSAF]

2 hours ago, Ji said:

Euro has a snow during the sneaky window of Feb 6-7

 

1 hour ago, CAPE said:

The 0z GEFS and EPS are still hinting at a little something in the Feb 6-10 window.

 

4 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's the period the AI has been targeting fwiw.

GGEM wasn’t far off and 6z gfs has a wintry storm in that period. Balance of the next 2 weeks is obviously warm, but there’s enough cold air nearby and with an active boundary also nearby, there could be a chance.

[Scraff]

15 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

 

GGEM wasn’t far off and 6z gfs has a wintry storm in that period. Balance of the next 2 weeks is obviously warm, but there’s enough cold air nearby and with an active boundary also nearby, there could be a chance.

So what you’re saying is we’ll need a storm that can generate its own cold air.

[Blizzard of 93]

54 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

 

 

GGEM wasn’t far off and 6z gfs has a wintry storm in that period. Balance of the next 2 weeks is obviously warm, but there’s enough cold air nearby and with an active boundary also nearby, there could be a chance.

The 6z GFS as you mentioned showed potential Winter Storm chances on the 7th & the 10th.

 
I’m just hoping at least one of these chances works out for us in this back & forth boundary period.

[CAPE]

For the chance around the 6-7th the 6z GFS has some energy in the flow underneath the western trough moving eastward and combining with southern energy ejecting northward from the upper low over southeast Texas. Nice wall of chilly HP to the north in the convergence/confluence zone associated with the NS vorticity.

[mitchnick]

6z AI now has 2/5 in play. One impulse comes thru on the 5th and a second round on the 6th/7th. DC north looks OK at 850 and surface, possibly a bit south of DC. This precip link starts on 2/5 so you can move it forward for precip amounts. Precip amounts on that top link are in 6 hour increments, but bottom is 12 hour for maybe a better idea of totals.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600

[Interstate]

3 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS....at least the salt will wash away by Saturday am.  Clean slate for February.

I can't even cash in on rain.

[CAPE]

57 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

6z AI now has 2/5 in play. One impulse comes thru on the 5th and a second round on the 6th/7th. DC north looks OK at 850 and surface, possibly a bit south of DC. This precip link starts on 2/5 so you can move it forward for precip amounts. Precip amounts on that top link are in 6 hour increments, but bottom is 12 hour for maybe a better idea of totals.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=6&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/aifs_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202501290600&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502050600

Looks cold enough on WB at the surface and 850 for snow for almost all of VA, MD and DE for both waves.

 

[Ji]

42 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Looks cold enough on WB at the surface and 850 for snow for almost all of VA, MD and DE for both waves.

 

we get some warm days in a cold pattern....why not a fluke in a crap pattern. Its still early Feb

[mitchnick]

8 minutes ago, Ji said:

we get some warm days in a cold pattern....why not a fluke in a crap pattern. Its still early Feb

Why not? Do you really want an answer to that? Lol

[CAPE]

48 minutes ago, Ji said:

we get some warm days in a cold pattern....why not a fluke in a crap pattern. Its still early Feb

Not really a crap pattern, just not especially cold. With a big trough over eastern Canada and an EPO ridge, cold air will be lurking close by next week. There will also be some energy coming east from the trough out west, and possibly interacting with a little southern energy moving NE from the western Gulf.

 

[Ji]

58 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Not really a crap pattern, just not especially cold. With a big trough over eastern Canada and an EPO ridge, cold air will be lurking close by next week. There will also be some energy coming east from the trough out west, and possibly interacting with a little southern energy moving NE from the western Gulf.

 

you have to like the look of canada at 144 on the euro