February Medium/Long Range Thread

[bncho]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve never seen this. Ever. 

If that verifies I think this winter will be the snowiest and coldest winter since 2014 for DCA.

[Terpeast]

Just now, Paleocene said:

Literally 3/50 members with nothing in that window. Bananas!

Usually we see 3/50 members WITH a hit, and that's when we get interested in tracking. But 47/50? Geez

[IronTy]

5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I’ve never seen this. Ever. 

If it doesn't happen then at least we'll have found a new way to fail.

[snowmagnet]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

another perspective just showing how clear this threat window is... if it wasn't already clear to the group

Yeah- I'm a bit confused about all the pessimism around the 11-13th event.  This has been showing up on and off for well over a week, and is getting more and more consistent.  Several different ensembles have quite a signal for this range.  I know we have been burned many times, and it's rare to have a 10 day signal.  But we did in 2016 and Dec 2009, and others.  It's not likely going to be a HECS, but it is definitely something worth tracking.  Just because the pattern is good after the 20th doesn't mean we can't score a coup before then.  

[87storms]

1 hour ago, psuhoffman said:

I’m definitely excited for the waves day 7-15 but if we’re going to have a shot at a classic coastal 12”+ snowstorm a couple days after this would be the first (but not the last) opportunity!  

Wave X is moving into 50/50 and wave Y is about to dig into the TN valley. Which would be around Feb 20 lol. 

I need to buy a new ice scraper/brush...the one I have kinda sucks.  Guess now is the right time before the 2nd half of winter hits.

[Weather Will]

I see the roller coaster is going back up this afternoon... good!!!!

[Heisy]

Stolen from discord




.

[NorthArlington101]

I think @WxUSAF mentioned wanting to see the next NBM earlier - fwiw... some of this is from the 10th but most is 12th-on

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I think @WxUSAF mentioned wanting to see the next NBM earlier - fwiw... some of this is from the 10th but most is 12th-on

Yup yup. Impressive.

[mitchnick]

11 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Stolen from discord




.

That actually causes a bit of discord with me. 

[bncho]

15 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Stolen from discord




.

Move that up 150-200 miles and everybody (especially @Ji) will be a lot happier.

[stormtracker]

35 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

buy!

Why didn’t you post the 1114 hr?  There was more to come!

[adelphi_sky]

40 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

buy!

With cash!

[Ralph Wiggum]

32 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Stolen from discord




.

Paging @Bob Chill 

Paging @Bob Chill

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Paging @Bob Chill 

Paging @Bob Chill

[Conway7305]

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Paging @Bob Chill 

Paging @Bob Chill

 

19 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Paging @Bob Chill 

Paging @Bob Chill

That would break our total snowfall record in Richmond if that actually verified…lol 

[clskinsfan]

Looks like the pattern breaks down mid March. Which is perfect timing imo. Maybe we will get a real spring this year after a historic 4-5 week period of winter? 

[BristowWx]

8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said:

Looks like the pattern breaks down mid March. Which is perfect timing imo. Maybe we will get a real spring this year after a historic 4-5 week period of winter? 

I don’t think anybody would complain about that. We might be sick of winter by the time mid March rolls around.  Nah will be looking for one more round.

[wasnow215]

54 minutes ago, bncho said:

Move that up 150-200 miles and everybody (especially @Ji) will be a lot happier.

Right there is perfect lol

[psuhoffman]

1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

18” at BWI over that period is about 175% of climo. 

I’ve never seen the mean look like that.  Even after the crazy ridiculous week 2, weeks 3-4-5 are about as snowy as I’ve ever seen a 7 day mean on the weeklies. It finally breaks around March 15. 

[stormtracker]

GFS still doing something with the 9th....wintry...but gonna go to rain...looks like the midweek thing...

[jayyy]

reversed fringed

On 1000 hour clown maps. May nudge a hair id say

[stormtracker]

Precip is approaching for the 12th, but temps out front are too encouraging.  Snow in the area Tuesday evening.  CAD entrenched but looks to be retreating?  

[stormtracker]

CAD holding so far.   Moderate snow Tuesday night

[stormtracker]

Destruction early Wed AM..like 1am or so.  HEavy snow, but thermals about to give way

[stormtracker]

Well shit...thermals still hanging on in the next panel...it's close tho.  I'm talking like snow line cuts through like Charles County from SW to NE

[stormtracker]

Snow line drops a bit south believe it or not on the next panel.  If this is all snow, it's gonna be pretty good

[stormtracker]

Precip still there, but light and pulling away...thermals finally starting to give way, but the damage appears to have been done at that point

[mitchnick]

1042 High in southern Ontario is a lifesaver.

[stormtracker]

She's a beaut.  Going from these shitty SV maps....looks like 10-15 forum wide...even Mitch gets good, but not as good as down here.