February Medium/Long Range Thread

[Daniel Boone]

15 minutes ago, IronTy said:

Didn't we slap import tariffs on the GEM?  Toss that model.  

Good one man !

[clskinsfan]

Weenietastic!!

[NorthArlington101]

Small potatoes compared to what we are eyeing but EURO took a jump south for Saturday

ices everyone up pretty good again... any of this precip that isn't snow is ice

[NorthArlington101]

thump to rain for the 12th 

[Ji]

8 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

thump to rain for the 12th 

ya thats not going to work boss

[brooklynwx99]

lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, brooklynwx99 said:

lol

Lol? Translate for those of us that don't read 500mb as well  (I'd imagine we down here would like that boundary a tick south?)

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol? Translate for those of us that don't read 500mb as well  (I'd imagine we down here would like that boundary a tick south?)

That longitudinally extended trop PV beneath a -NAO/-AO is a feature of our big dogs.

[frd]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

Lol? Translate for those of us that don't read 500mb as well  (I'd imagine we down here would like that boundary a tick south?)

 

Appears we are closer to the reaches of the SER versus true arctic air. Like I was saying earlier,  I like it much, much colder. 

Hopefully,  the pattern progression, ( MJO, AO, NAO ) will push the boundaries South, the blues. That could open the door to a MECS pattern. 

I was mislead last year by the models, and the years before, I am not getting my hopes up just yet. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

4 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

That longitudinally extended trop PV beneath a -NAO/-AO is a feature of our big dogs.

Triple phase potential.

[Ralph Wiggum]

7 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Appears we are closer to the reaches of the SER versus true arctic air. Like I was saying earlier,  I like it much, much colder. 

Hopefully,  the pattern progression, ( MJO, AO, NAO ) will push the boundaries South, the blues. That could open the door to a MECS pattern. 

I was mislead last year by the models, and the years before, I am not getting my hopes up just yet. 

I don't think any of us are banking on a single thing just yet outside of the next 4 or 5 days....at least they shouldn't be. This is still all just potential and windows of opportunity. Maybe a discrete opportunity around the 11th-12th starting to gain traction. But most of us know epic patterns don't always produce. The fact we are seeing the epic pattern evolve at least gives hope and chances. 

[bncho]

CMCE has an amazing snow mean - and it's only 264 hours out.

[psuhoffman]

19 minutes ago, Ji said:

ya thats not going to work boss

Was that you accusing me of big dog hunting about 2 hours ago?  

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS: busy at work what is wrong with this?!

[jon_snow]

I've seen these maps show dates from 2/12 to 12/19. Are there multiple storms we're talking about here?

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z EPS....lot of big hits and several still to the south....

[wxdude64]

4 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS: busy at work what is wrong with this?!

Not a thing IF it happens.

[Ji]

Was that you accusing me of big dog hunting about 2 hours ago?  

Since when do op runs show less than the ensemble mean lol

[psuhoffman]

16 minutes ago, frd said:

 

Appears we are closer to the reaches of the SER versus true arctic air. Like I was saying earlier,  I like it much, much colder. 

Hopefully,  the pattern progression, ( MJO, AO, NAO ) will push the boundaries South, the blues. That could open the door to a MECS pattern. 

I was mislead last year by the models, and the years before, I am not getting my hopes up just yet. 

I’m good with some SER with that blocking. Yea some waves could rain but I’m tired of dry and fringed and coastal scrapers and congrats Florida. I’ll take my chances on a wet pattern with blocking and the boundary near us.  

[WxUSAF]

I’d wager the NBM for next week is a widespread warning level event. That’s quite impressive for D9ish.

[North Balti Zen]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Since when do op runs show less than the ensemble mean lol

Often?

[BigCountry]

11 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z EPS: busy at work what is wrong with this?!

It is 12 days out....that is what is wrong with it.

[mitchnick]

Anybody remember seeing this kind of 24 hour ensemble snowfall mean on the Eps on a 8-9 day threat?

[NorthArlington101]

This is a 24 hour mean - that's a "woof woof" big dog signal right there. Timeframe has been locked in for 2-days and keeps looking better.

24hr median is equally nutso

[North Balti Zen]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Anybody remember seeing this kind of 24 hour ensemble snowfall mean on the Eps on a 8-9 day threat?

In all seriousness, in the ten days prior to Jan 2016 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said:

This is a 24 hour mean - that's a "woof woof" big dog signal right there. Timeframe has been locked in for 2-days and keeps looking better.

24hr median is equally nutso

Waiting for someone to ask what the big deal is it is showing a 3-6" storm

[mitchnick]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

In all seriousness, in the ten days prior to Jan 2016 

That's what I was thinking and that's why I asked. I didn't want to be the one to say it! Lol

[mitchnick]

Just now, Ralph Wiggum said:

Waiting for someone to ask what the big deal is it is showing a 3-6" storm

Only 3-5" 

[wxdude64]

1 minute ago, mitchnick said:

Only 3-5" 

Pass then. 

[WxUSAF]

2 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

That's what I was thinking and that's why I asked. I didn't want to be the one to say it! Lol

Not to get too far ahead of ourselves, but next week isn’t looking like that level to me. Potential for that type of thing comes later in February I’d wag.