February Medium/Long Range Thread

[MN Transplant]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Huge slug coming up next, but we just can't keep the thermals for it.    

Drought-denter at the very least.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, TSSN+ said:

Thru 198

 

Damn, I nailed that one.  <pats self on back>   If you try to decipher the SV maps,  you'll understand why I'm surprised I was right.

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

DC north is prob still snow at 198...but it's way too close for just around DC...so prob mix/sleet down here.  PSU is safe

Let’s call zone 1 inside beltway and east and south 

Zone 2 beltway to Germantown

Zone 3 from there to PA border 

How would you break that down?

Thanks 

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, MN Transplant said:

Drought-denter at the very least.

Good thing is, we got plenty of times to see this bad boy get us good.

[winter_warlock]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Damn, I nailed that one.  <pats self on back>   If you try to decipher the SV maps,  you'll understand why I'm surprised I was right.

Ty for the PBP Randy!!

[stormtracker]

Just now, WEATHER53 said:

Let’s call zone 1 inside beltway and east and south 

Zone 2 beltway to Germantown

Zone 3 from there to PA border 

How would you break that down?

Thanks 

See NorthArlington's map.   But....zone 1 is 6"  zone 2 is 8   zone 3 is about the same

[stormtracker]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Ty for the PBP Randy!!

np

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Damn, I nailed that one.  <pats self on back>   If you try to decipher the SV maps,  you'll understand why I'm surprised I was right.

Oh I know I hated those maps. I used to use SV but I was like these maps are ass lol 

[MN Transplant]

4 standard deviation PWAT values.  4” of precip through 240.

[winter_warlock]

2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

4 standard deviation PWAT values.  4” of precip through 240.

4 inches of liquid in 10 days!!wow that will. Take care of any drought issue lol

[stormtracker]

Front moves through...we cool down.  Next S/w out west looks pretty.   Let's see what happens.  

[frd]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

4 standard deviation PWAT values.  4” of precip through 240.

In the snow department it appears areas up to our North cash in the best. Maybe all snow versus uncertain amount further South.

Still not seeing the low lands cashing in yet in a big way.  

 

 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Front moves through...we cool down.  Next S/w out west looks pretty.   Let's see what happens.  

GGEM at 240 looks nothing like the GFS at 240

[stormtracker]

Just now, Ji said:

GGEM at 240 looks nothing like the GFS at 240

lol, is that a bad or good thing?

[brooklynwx99]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

lol, is that a bad or good thing?

depends...

[stormtracker]

Shit..got called away..but yeah, the next thing would have been epic if we had the thermals.

[stormtracker]

It's a moisture bomb that flips over to snow at the tail end, but I'm telling yall...if that storm on the 16th was all snow...this place would implode.   

Ok, that was fun...onto the next runs

[mitchnick]

Love the way the Gfs seemingly finds different ways to snow on this run. Lol

[brooklynwx99]

the thing that's really wild about these runs is that they're prolific before the most favorable window, which is when the block rots. these runs have DC-NYC getting 1-2 feet through the 16th, which is when the block is still developing. the timeframe from the 16-23rd is when you'd expect to see the greatest shot at a true MECS

so the fact that ensembles are showing 8-12" from NYC to DC without a well defined MECS signal is ridiculous

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

It's a moisture bomb that flips over to snow at the tail end, but I'm telling yall...if that storm on the 16th was all snow...this place would implode.   

Ok, that was fun...onto the next runs

I think at least one of these waves if not two will give us the goods. Global models are showing different ways to snow, we can start getting the iron out by Thursday. Fun times ahead. 

[frd]

13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

depends...

GEM not impressive with 10 day snow totals. HL blocking configuration is weird looking compared to other models.   

Meanwhile it appears the PV split and SSWE forecasts have calmed a bit, ( yes its really not needed ) reading about the continued battle between the SER and

the -AO. 

Question is, will it be cold enough down here in DC.,  Baltimore and the lowlands for all snow events.

We have the mositure, but do we really have the cold ? And, will the cold hold ?  

[brooklynwx99]

1 minute ago, frd said:

GEM not impressive with 10 day snow totals. HL blocking configuration is weird looking compared to other models.   

Meanwhile it appears the PV split and SSWE forecasts have calmed a bit, ( yes its really not needed ) reading about the continued battle between the SER and

the -AO. 

Question is, will it be cold enough down here in DC.,  Baltimore and the lowlands for all snow events.

We have the mositure, but do we really have the cold ? And, will the cold hold ?  

this is your takeaway?

[frd]

4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this is your takeaway?

My takeaway is simply whether its cold enough with a robust moisture plume moving up and over our region.  Playing the Devil's advocate is all I am saying.      

[IronTy]

12 minutes ago, frd said:

GEM not impressive with 10 day snow totals. HL blocking configuration is weird looking compared to other models.   

Didn't we slap import tariffs on the GEM?  Toss that model.  

[frd]

Just now, IronTy said:

Didn't we slap import tariffs on the GEM?  Toss that model.  

Ah, that explains it.     Hey, I agree things look very good, I am awaiting on a general MECS, its been many, many years, even 2016 was a dissapointment here.   

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, frd said:

Ah, that explains it.     Hey, I agree things look very good, I am awaiting on a general MECS, its been many, many years, even 2016 was a dissapointment here.   

Wait really? How much did you end up getting that year?

[bncho]

Let's get our 09-10 redux but better with back to back to back blizzards on Feb 12, Feb 16, and Feb 22.

[adelphi_sky]

3 minutes ago, bncho said:

Let's get our 09-10 redux but better with back to back to back blizzards on Feb 12, Feb 16, and Feb 22.

My kids miss our snow on snow. We need to reload fast. I like what I see.

[frd]

3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said:

Wait really? How much did you end up getting that year?

Bob Chill got over 30 inches,  and my area was on the Eastern end of less forcing, I measured 13 inches, areas to the West much higher. NWS forecast was for nearly 22 here.  

[bncho]

Let's see what the Euro brings.