stormtracker Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, MN Transplant said: Drought-denter at the very least. Good thing is, we got plenty of times to see this bad boy get us good. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just now, stormtracker said: Damn, I nailed that one. <pats self on back> If you try to decipher the SV maps, you'll understand why I'm surprised I was right. Ty for the PBP Randy!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 Just now, WEATHER53 said: Let’s call zone 1 inside beltway and east and south Zone 2 beltway to Germantown Zone 3 from there to PA border How would you break that down? Thanks See NorthArlington's map. But....zone 1 is 6" zone 2 is 8 zone 3 is about the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 Just now, winter_warlock said: Ty for the PBP Randy!! np Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Damn, I nailed that one. <pats self on back> If you try to decipher the SV maps, you'll understand why I'm surprised I was right. Oh I know I hated those maps. I used to use SV but I was like these maps are ass lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 standard deviation PWAT values. 4” of precip through 240. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 2 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 4 standard deviation PWAT values. 4” of precip through 240. 4 inches of liquid in 10 days!!wow that will. Take care of any drought issue lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 Front moves through...we cool down. Next S/w out west looks pretty. Let's see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: 4 standard deviation PWAT values. 4” of precip through 240. In the snow department it appears areas up to our North cash in the best. Maybe all snow versus uncertain amount further South. Still not seeing the low lands cashing in yet in a big way. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Front moves through...we cool down. Next S/w out west looks pretty. Let's see what happens. GGEM at 240 looks nothing like the GFS at 240 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 Just now, Ji said: GGEM at 240 looks nothing like the GFS at 240 lol, is that a bad or good thing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 7 minutes ago, stormtracker said: lol, is that a bad or good thing? depends... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 Shit..got called away..but yeah, the next thing would have been epic if we had the thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 3 Author Share Posted February 3 It's a moisture bomb that flips over to snow at the tail end, but I'm telling yall...if that storm on the 16th was all snow...this place would implode. Ok, that was fun...onto the next runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Love the way the Gfs seemingly finds different ways to snow on this run. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 the thing that's really wild about these runs is that they're prolific before the most favorable window, which is when the block rots. these runs have DC-NYC getting 1-2 feet through the 16th, which is when the block is still developing. the timeframe from the 16-23rd is when you'd expect to see the greatest shot at a true MECS so the fact that ensembles are showing 8-12" from NYC to DC without a well defined MECS signal is ridiculous 10 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's a moisture bomb that flips over to snow at the tail end, but I'm telling yall...if that storm on the 16th was all snow...this place would implode. Ok, that was fun...onto the next runs I think at least one of these waves if not two will give us the goods. Global models are showing different ways to snow, we can start getting the iron out by Thursday. Fun times ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 13 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: depends... GEM not impressive with 10 day snow totals. HL blocking configuration is weird looking compared to other models. Meanwhile it appears the PV split and SSWE forecasts have calmed a bit, ( yes its really not needed ) reading about the continued battle between the SER and the -AO. Question is, will it be cold enough down here in DC., Baltimore and the lowlands for all snow events. We have the mositure, but do we really have the cold ? And, will the cold hold ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 1 minute ago, frd said: GEM not impressive with 10 day snow totals. HL blocking configuration is weird looking compared to other models. Meanwhile it appears the PV split and SSWE forecasts have calmed a bit, ( yes its really not needed ) reading about the continued battle between the SER and the -AO. Question is, will it be cold enough down here in DC., Baltimore and the lowlands for all snow events. We have the mositure, but do we really have the cold ? And, will the cold hold ? this is your takeaway? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 4 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: this is your takeaway? My takeaway is simply whether its cold enough with a robust moisture plume moving up and over our region. Playing the Devil's advocate is all I am saying. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 12 minutes ago, frd said: GEM not impressive with 10 day snow totals. HL blocking configuration is weird looking compared to other models. Didn't we slap import tariffs on the GEM? Toss that model. 1 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just now, IronTy said: Didn't we slap import tariffs on the GEM? Toss that model. Ah, that explains it. Hey, I agree things look very good, I am awaiting on a general MECS, its been many, many years, even 2016 was a dissapointment here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Just now, frd said: Ah, that explains it. Hey, I agree things look very good, I am awaiting on a general MECS, its been many, many years, even 2016 was a dissapointment here. Wait really? How much did you end up getting that year? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Let's get our 09-10 redux but better with back to back to back blizzards on Feb 12, Feb 16, and Feb 22. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
adelphi_sky Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, bncho said: Let's get our 09-10 redux but better with back to back to back blizzards on Feb 12, Feb 16, and Feb 22. My kids miss our snow on snow. We need to reload fast. I like what I see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 3 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Wait really? How much did you end up getting that year? Bob Chill got over 30 inches, and my area was on the Eastern end of less forcing, I measured 13 inches, areas to the West much higher. NWS forecast was for nearly 22 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bncho Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Let's see what the Euro brings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 15 minutes ago, IronTy said: Didn't we slap import tariffs on the GEM? Toss that model. Good one man ! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Weenietastic!! 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 3 Share Posted February 3 Small potatoes compared to what we are eyeing but EURO took a jump south for Saturday ices everyone up pretty good again... any of this precip that isn't snow is ice 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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