February Medium/Long Range Thread

[stormtracker]

looks like foot in DC up to PSU land

[Stormchaserchuck1]

That is a 1045mb High pressure in NNE when it starts snowing on the GFS run. If it trends weaker, will the storm come north?

[jayyy]

Only 40 runs to go!

[nj2va]

9 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

 

Sold, lock it up. 

[Weather Will]

Duplicate threads for 5-6.  Someone delete one please.

[MountainGeek]

[Weather Will]

WB OZ Euro...12th period. Mixing in central zones. Surface stays below freezing.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z GEFS for the 12th period.  Few flush hits and couple north and south.... good spot for 9-10 days out.

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS for 12th period....

 

[Weather Will]

WB 0Z EPS....at end of run.  More potential chances into the long range beyond the 15 day period still look on track as well even if we don't cash in on the storm next week.

[Weather Will]

WB 6Z GFS for 11-12th. There is also a lot of sleet and freezing rain.  Lot of cold air nearby; wondering if GFS underestimating CAD; exact storm track also not set in stone yet.  Could wobble either way....

[mitchnick]

2/14

[Ji]

Did doge give access to the gfs to JB?

Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk

[mitchnick]

On 2/1/2025 at 4:10 PM, mitchnick said:

Euro site.  I'll  post yesterday's on top and today's on the bottom for weeks 2, 3, 4 and 6. Week 5 was similar. 

 

 

This post from Saturday compared the change from Friday. Yesterday's were even colder. Instead of posting all the maps, here's a link to the weeklies. You can see the incredible change starting week 2 with now below normal over a large area of the Conus. And there are no longer any weeks AN. Don't freak over week 1, as it has looked that way for days. 

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/extended-anomaly-2t?base_time=202502020000&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202502100000

[mitchnick]

Eps 0z snowfall mean. Large distribution this run. Breathing room.

[SnowenOutThere]

8 minutes ago, mitchnick said:

Eps 0z snowfall mean. Large distribution this run. Breathing room.

That’s one of the most impressive means I’ve seen of any ensemble, much less for a time period without a concrete threat yet. 

[Benjamn3]

2nd half of February about to pull up with the JBL speaker bumping. 

[Yardstickgozinya]

10 minutes ago, Benjamn3 said:

2nd half of February about to pull up with the JBL speaker bumping. 

 

[bncho]

oh my...

 

[bncho]

I'll take p47 and give it to everybody.

[Ralph Wiggum]

10 minutes ago, bncho said:

I'll take p47 and give it to everybody.

Ji won't be happy.

[brooklynwx99]

this retrograding and decaying Scandi block along with the elongated TPV is often a precursor to some of our larger storms, historically. there are risks before this occurs, mainly around the 8th and 12th, but there's certainly a window for a more prototypical coastal storm between the 18-23rd

[Benjamn3]

30 minutes ago, Yardstickgozinya said:

 

I was thinking Fetty Wap - Trap Queen, but that works too. 

[Benjamn3]

18 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Ji won't be happy.

 

[Mikeymac5306]

1 hour ago, Benjamn3 said:

2nd half of February about to pull up with the JBL speaker bumping. 

The funeral for everyone writing off winter last week , and now this...

 

[bncho]

The snow signal on the 11-14th is astoundingly high. Amazing stuff.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, bncho said:

The snow signal on the 11-14th is astoundingly high. Amazing stuff.

Wow yes that is really good.  EPS is lit up like a Christmas tree.  Ahead of schedule. 

[aldie 22]

1 hour ago, mitchnick said:

Eps 0z snowfall mean. Large distribution this run. Breathing room.

I'm not sure I've seen a mean like this in a long time if ever this far out

[midatlanticweather]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

this retrograding and decaying Scandi block along with the elongated TPV is often a precursor to some of our larger storms, historically. there are risks before this occurs, mainly around the 8th and 12th, but there's certainly a window for a more prototypical coastal storm between the 18-23rd

psu has been saying that before the 20th may be too soon (not that we would not take anything we get lucky with).. so that lines up better.. regardless, looking good

 

[mitchnick]

6z Gefs snowfall mean. Odd how Eps are better than the Gefs that is usually the weenie of the 3 ensembles.